Even the most talented of NFL players can see their fantasy production fall victim to horrid offenses. We’ve seen great football players like D.J. Moore, Jonathan Taylor, or the entire 2022 Broncos’ offense who enter year after year with loads of hype, but ultimately fail to meet our expectations in fantasy football due to the situation of their offense as a whole. Today, we’ll project which NFL offenses could spawn fantasy disappointment in 2023.
Chicago Bears
Firstly, I would like to state for the record that Justin Fields is absolutely primed to have a career year. I loved Fields as a prospect and think very highly of him as a passer, and there’s not any more to be said about his rushing ability that hasn’t been said already. Fields is a Top-8 quarterback in Dynasty and Redraft and is a QB1 candidate in 2023.
Now, it’s time to rip the band-aid off. What I don’t like about Chicago is, well, everyone else. I’m a fan of D.J. Moore as a player, and I like Darnell Mooney as well. I think Chase Claypool can be a high-end WR3, and Cole Kmet is a respectable tight end. However, with how effective the Bears’ rushing attack projects to be, they’d be stupid not to run it 30+ times per game. This isn’t me saying that Fields lacks any passing ability, or that Chicago is shorthanded in their receiving core. Rather, if you can run the ball with such effectiveness, there’s no point in making Fields throw 30-40 times a game. Thus, Chicago receivers are likely to disappoint their current expectations due to the success of their run game creating a lack of volume in the passing game.
I’m not particularly keen on any Chicago running back as well. Typically, read-option QBs create elite rushing teams, but not necessarily elite fantasy running backs. Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts are all notorious in the fantasy community for sniping rushing touchdowns from their backfield. Anyone who’s been an Alvin Kamara owner in the past 4 seasons knows that Taysom Hill is the only thing preventing Kamara from being the greatest fantasy asset since LaDanian Tomlinson. I could see a situation in Chicago where Roschon Johnson, D’Onta Foreman, and Khalil Herbert all rack up respectable rushing numbers with great efficiency due to seeing lighter boxes as a result of the threat of Fields’ rushing ability.
However, their fantasy production is likely to disappoint. Fields will likely bite a massive chunk out of Chicago’s total rushing touchdowns, and he’s also not particularly keen on throwing to his running backs, meaning the RBs in Chicago project to have low floors due to a lack of receptions as well as a low ceiling due to a lack of touchdowns. I would be wary when drafting Chicago RBs in 2023.
As a whole, Chicago projects to have a potent offense in 2023. But from a fantasy perspective, many signs point towards the skill positions failing to meet the lofty expectations that might be assigned to them. I’m all in on Fields this year as a potential QB1 overall candidate, but I can’t say the same about everyone else in Chicago.
Arizona Cardinals
It certainly seems like I’m stating the obvious here. Yes, the team rolling out Colt McCoy or Clayton Tune in Week 1 is an offense worth avoiding. But, there’s a little more to it than that. Specifically, I don’t see why Kyler Murray starts a single game in 2023.
Murray’s injury happened in Week 14 of 2022. If we call an ACL recovery timetable roughly 9-12 months to get back up to an NFL-playable speed, we’re looking at Murray likely being ready around Week 8 or 9 of the 2023 season. If the Cardinals wind up being as bad as it seems like they’ll be, why on earth would you roll out your franchise quarterback to try to revive a 1-8 or 2-7 start? With such a depleted roster on both sides of the ball, I just see no world in which Arizona actually throws Kyler back into the fire mid-season fresh off of his rehab, only to get pounded on by an elite NFC West for eight weeks before inevitably failing to run the table from such a late start.
So, while I love Kyler Murray’s value at cost right now, if you’re drafting Kyler in a startup or trading for him in an ongoing league, you’re admitting that your window is more in 2024 than in 2023. Additionally, if you’re acquiring any Cardinals players, such as Hollywood Brown, James Conner, or Trey McBride (all of which I think are nice buys at their current value), it’s essential that you tamper your expectations for their 2023 production. If, and this is a big if, the Cardinals have their heads screwed on straight in 2023, we won’t see Kyler Murray suiting up at any point. Whenever that gets officially announced, there’ll be a nice buy window to acquire Cardinals skill players, which is worth taking a look at.
Before moving on from Arizona, I’d like to note the possibility of Marvin Harrison Jr. or Caleb Williams landing there in April. Either of these players would have huge fantasy implications on Arizona’s offensive talent, which I won’t cover today, but are definitely noteworthy when suggesting acquiring any Arizona Cardinals. Buy, but with caution.
75% of the AFC South
Rapid fire time. This division is going to look rough in 2023, with the Jacksonville Jaguars being the one exception.
Tennessee Titans: The Titans are, simply put, going to have one of the worst offenses in the entire league next season. Their offensive line is poor, their receiving weapons are poor (sorry, Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo fans), and their quarterback situation looks god-awful at the moment. Jimmy Johnson famously said, “If you have two quarterbacks, you have zero.” Well, Tennessee has three, and none of them are all that good. I’m as out as anyone could possibly be on Tennessee in 2023, and would be looking to sell virtually everyone on that team for whatever I can get right now.
Indianapolis Colts: Yes, I love Anthony Richardson. For about the entire rookie draft process, I’ve been singing his praises and leading the AR QB1 train and holding my head high whilst doing so. But, as far as 2023 offenses go, I have to admit this is one that I am not overly enamored with. While being my QB1 in his class, and being a more developed passer than I think he gets credit for, the truth is that Richardson does indeed have a good way to go as far as becoming a respectable NFL passer. Nonetheless, I absolutely think he’ll get there, and I think he could do it as soon as the 2023 season. But, it is certainly cause for some caution. Shane Steichen and the Colts’ offensive coaching staff are unlikely to rely on Richardson’s passing as a contributing factor to their offense, which will put a cap on the ceilings of all pass-catchers for the time being. I do believe Jonathan Taylor is primed for a big year, but with the addition of Evan Hull (who is an excellent receiver), I have some concerns that he doesn’t receive the same three-down role we’ve seen in the past. With the presence of Richardson likely opening up more running lanes for Taylor, this does look to be a very good rushing offense, but I’m not super-bought into the Colts’ offense as a whole in 2023, at least from a fantasy perspective.
Houston Texans: This one should be kind of obvious, but we simply can’t expect the Texans to produce reliable fantasy scorers in 2023. Laremy Tunsil aside, this offensive line could use work and newcomer C.J. Stroud will easily be dealing with the worst protection he’s had in his entire football career. I predict that Stroud’s 2023 campaign will likely be full of growing pains, and while I do believe he will still be a capable quarterback and will post respectable QB2 numbers, I don’t quite think he has much of a league-winning ceiling in 2023. This then will reflect in the pass-catchers, which are average at best. I’m not overly excited about any of John Metchie, Nico Collins, or Tank Dell, and while Dalton Schultz is cool, he’s not winning you any games in 2023. Lastly, the running back room has gotten increasingly more crowded with the addition of Devin Singletary, who will bite into a good portion of the incumbent Dameon Pierce’s receiving work. Pierce will still be a viable RB2 for fantasy in 2023, but if that’s the best skill position player in this whole offense, it’s pretty safe to say this is one worth avoiding for now.
Thanks for reading! Be sure to check out some other recent articles on DFF while you’re here to learn the game and dominate your leagues. For more of me, follow my Twitter @bwinknfl and check out my podcast, the Always Be Building show, on DFF’s YouTube channel! #DFFArmy
