The annual underwear Olympics, also known as the NFL Combine, took place this week in Indianapolis. I highly encourage everyone to value in-game production and film far more than this exhibition. Nevertheless, there were certainly winners and losers as far as expected draft capital is concerned. This article will highlight whose draft stock likely took a hit, whose rose with their performance in the drills, and where their measurables came in.
Kent Lee Platte publishes a wonderful athletic score compilation each year called the Relative Athletic Score. Each player quoted below will have their RAS table published. The highest a player can score is 10. The lowest is 0. This provides a frame of reference to establish their size-adjusted athleticism.
Winners
Theo Johnson
This tight-end class was thirsty for someone to emerge and rise up draft boards. Size-adjusted athleticism matters more for tight ends than any other position. I was already lower than consensus on the presumptive number two tight end, Ja’ Tavion Sanders, and then he posted a slower-than-expected 40 time.
Theo Johnson, on the other hand, had an elite Combine performance. Iowa and Penn St are monopolizing NFL tight ends of late. Mike Gesicki, Pat Freiermuth, and Brenton Strange were each selected in the second round.
Trey Benson
Benson was already our DFF consensus panel of analysts RB1 overall in this year’s rookie class. Find the latest rookie draft rankings here. His Combine performance shows he has the elite athleticism and size to accompany his high-end production. Benson has the best-missed tackles forced per attempt of any RB in this class at an elite 39.2% and was second in explosive run percent to another Combine winner, Marshawn Lloyd. Benson should now be in consideration for the first round in Dynasty rookie drafts.
Marshawn Lloyd
Woooh… Marshawn Lloyd has some thickness. Measuring in at 5’8″, 220 pounds. This is a body type that can handle a workhorse role in the NFL. Lloyd also has some nice performances in some of the advanced metrics. He was at the top of this class in breakaway run %, which isn’t something you would necessarily expect from that body type. Lloyd’s missed tackles forced per attempt ranked fourth in the class.
Isaac Guerendo
Guerendo is the type of player I love to take a gamble on in the late rounds of Dynasty rookie drafts. Think Isiah Pacheco. He has largely been off the radar of mock draft and Dynasty analysts alike, but his RAS is elite. He has minimal tread on his tires, sitting behind Braelon Allen at Wisconsin before transferring to Louisville for his final year. He posted a yards per carry above 6 for each of his last three years, although he never cracked 1000 yards rushing.
Ricky Pearsall
Pearsall has had an incredible pre-draft process. He dominated at the Senior Bowl and now crushed the Combine. The most predictive Combine event is the 3-cone drill. Pearsall led all receivers in this class with a 6.64 time. He doesn’t have the most amazing production profile, but he is an intriguing prospect based on his traits.
Xavier Worthy
Worthy is a player I was very high on before the Combine. I had him as my WR 4 overall. However, it had nothing to do with his speed. Then he goes out and sets the all-time 40 mark with a blazing 4.21. Forty times has very little correlation to future NFL success. It is, however, greatly valued by NFL teams and will pump up Worthy’s draft capital. Speed merchants like John Ross, Henry Ruggs, and Jameson Williams are always drafted too high in Dynasty rookie drafts because they were drafted high in the NFL draft.
You should like Worthy because he is one of only two first-year breakouts and was third in the class in college career fantasy points per game. Let’s hope his forty time doesn’t push him out of value range.
Adonai Mitchell
A second NFL Combine winner for the Texas Longhorns. Mitchell has been a traits and film favorite. His analytical profile is lacking, but he has a high ceiling. He is likely going to go too high in Dynasty rookie drafts for my taste. He was one of only a few wide receivers expected to be drafted with under 10 college career fantasy points per game. He also fared poorly in highly predictive metrics like yards per route run and receiving yards per team pass attempt.
Rome Odunze
Odunze probably didn’t need to participate in the Combine to cement his top 10 draft status, similar to his peers Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. However, he did, and he performed very well. His 9.91 Relative Athletic Score is elite. His analytical profile is also solid. He led all prospects in this class in college career fantasy points per game. He is the consensus number 3 wide receiver, and if you want him in your Dynasty rookie drafts, he is unlikely to get past pick 1.07.
Losers
Bucky Irving
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Irving was one of my favorites before the Combine. He takes a huge hit to his stock with this performance. Advocates are hoping he is Kyren Williams. However, it’s not usually wise to bet on outliers. He has a lot of fans from the film community, and this isn’t a death nail. But as an analyst providing recommendations to our readership, I am advising you to stay away and let others chase the outlier.
Blake Corum
I was already out on Blake Corum, as some had him as a top 2 or 3 running back in this class. Top it off with this rotten cherry, and I am completely out. He has a lot of tread on his tires and had a rough year this past year as compared to the year prior. He ranked 126th in yards after contact and 143rd in missed tackles forced per attempt.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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