Welcome back for the final part of this three-part series, where I give you my favorite Dynasty startup value in each round of a Superflex format. I’ve pulled ADP from Dynasty Data Lab, created by @Adeiko_FF. Adeiko’s ADP is widely considered the most accurate and up-to-date in the Dynasty community. You can view the complete list of startup ADP here, and I’ve also included a snapshot of rounds 13-18, which are the rounds I’ll be covering here in Part 3. If you haven’t checked out the first two articles, you can check out Part 1 here and Part 2 here.
My values will be based on a Dynasty Superflex, PPR, TEP format. Adeiko’s ADP currently has rookie picks in place of the rookies themselves, so this series is based on the assumption you are drafting rookie picks in your startup and will have your subsequent rookie draft after the NFL draft.
Round 13
Dontayvion Wicks (13.08)
Dontayvion Wicks was a Day 3 pick and an afterthought on this Green Bay depth chart heading into the season. However, Wicks proved his worth in this crowded receiver room, finishing his rookie season with 39 receptions, 581 yards, and four touchdowns. There’s no question he outperformed his NFL draft capital in Year 1. Wicks wasn’t even drafted in most Superflex rookie drafts, so you likely could have acquired him with a winning FAAB bid in-season.
Wicks’ efficiency numbers were pretty solid as well. He has a 20.6% target rate and 2.07 yards per route run (WR24 overall). He also finished as the WR11 in yards per target with 10.0. The problem is, there are plenty of talented WRs on this depth chart. Wicks has to compete with Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft for targets. It will be difficult to build on his efficiency numbers in Year 1, but I like the talent, and he’s an excellent route runner, so I’m a fan of this value late in the 13th round.
Round 14
Rookie Pick 2.12 (14.04)
None of the players in the 14th round of Adeiko’s ADP strike me as particularly inspiring, so I’m going with the 2.12 rookie pick in Superflex formats as my favorite value. Looking at recent rookie mock drafts, I think this could land you a solid Day 2 receiver like Roman Wilson, Ricky Pearsall, Jalen McMillan, Ja’Lynn Polk, or Xavier Legette. Once we get to this area of the draft, I’m mainly looking at prospects with the highest possible ceiling, even if that ceiling outcome is unlikely. If I can’t squint and see a scenario where I could be starting a particular player while also contending for a championship, then I really have no use for that player. How many championship rosters in Dynasty will have put Gabe Davis, Wan’Dale Robinson, or Demario Douglas to use? Probably very few. I’d rather re-roll the dice and hope I land on a breakout candidate in the late second round. This WR class is so deep that I think we’ll see exciting draft picks well into the third round of rookie drafts.
Round 15
Khalil Shakir (15.01)
I actually prefer Shakir over all of the WRs in Round 14, as well as a couple in Round 13. We just got news of Gabe Davis leaving the Bills and signing with the Jaguars, but this news shouldn’t change our Dynasty view of Shakir. We knew there was a high probability of Davis leaving, and there’s a good chance Buffalo will take a wide receiver late in the first round of the NFL Draft, possibly someone like Brian Thomas Jr or Adonai Mitchell. I think Shakir will still be the WR3 and the fourth pass-catcher (after Dalton Kincaid) next season, but Diggs is getting older, and with that, Shakir’s opportunities may increase.
Shakir saw an increased role as the season progressed, finishing his last three contests (including the playoffs) with 12 or more FPPG. He led the NFL in yards per target with 13.6, so he’s converted at an extremely high rate when thrown the ball. Shakir gets a lot of manufactured touches by the line of scrimmage in this offense, but as long as nobody takes that role from him, he should continue producing. I wouldn’t love it for Shakir if Buffalo drafted Xavier Worthy since that’s where Worthy really excels, but anyone else shouldn’t hurt Shakir too much.
Round 16
Zack Moss (16.11)
I imagine Moss’ Dynasty stock will jump up a bit with the most recent free agency news. Moss signed a two-year, $8 million deal with the Cincinnati Bengals and they released Joe Mixon. Zack’s only real competition on this Cincinnati roster is Chase Brown, a Day 3 pick from the 2023 Draft. While Brown flashed some signs of fantasy relevance as a rookie, I don’t know that he’s good enough to dominate any NFL backfield. Currently, Brown is going near the end of the 12th round, almost 50 picks ahead of Moss. I have to assume these two will be taken much closer together in startups as we get closer to the NFL season.
Moss had a decent season for the Colts last year, finishing with 12.1 FPPG and handling the backfield well while Jonathan Taylor was out. The Bengals could draft an RB in the upcoming NFL Draft, but I imagine this move means they won’t. I foresee Moss splitting this backfield 50/50 with Brown. He has incredible contingent value if Brown were to suffer an injury.
Round 17
Rookie pick 3.06 (17.01)
This WR class is so deep that there will be enticing prospects all the way through the end of the third round of rookie drafts. Obviously, these guys will be more of “dart throws” than sure things, but in the 17th round of startups, that’s going to be expected. It’s tough to speculate who exactly will be available at this pick this far out, but I’d prefer taking the “mystery box” of a mid-third over the players that are going in this round. None look like guys that could realistically hit your starting lineup; maybe Elijah Mitchell, if CMC gets hurt and San Francisco doesn’t grab any additional depth at the RB position. Either way, give me the flexibility and the youth that comes with the 3.06 pick here.
Round 18
Gardner Minshew (18.09)
Initially, I had Jaleel McLaughlin in this spot, as I really like his game, and I think there’s a real chance he overtakes Javonte Williams as the primary back in Denver next season. However, I had to update my pick with the news of Gardner Minshew signing with Las Vegas yesterday. Minshew signed a two-year, $25 million deal with $15 million guaranteed. This looks more like starter money than backup money. I assume this means the Raiders felt like all the QBs they liked would be off the board by pick 13 of the NFL Draft, and they weren’t willing to trade up. I’m proceeding as if Minshew is starting in 2024. At best, he’s probably a low-end QB2, but a starting QB in Superflex formats is still worth something. I think we’ll see him move up to around Round 14 here shortly.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
