Best Startup Value Per Round: Part 1

Startup season is upon us again; with this, we have updated ADP we can discuss. I’ve pulled Superflex ADP from Dynasty Data Lab, created by @Adeiko_FF. Adeiko’s ADP is widely considered the most accurate and up-to-date in the Dynasty community. You can view the complete list of startup ADP here, and I’ve also included a snapshot of the first six rounds, which I’ll be covering here in Part 1. In this three-part series, I will give you my favorite value in each round, exclusive of roster construction. In Dynasty, I generally think it’s better to draft the best value on the board rather than focus heavily on positional needs, as you can always trade players in-season to fill out your roster. So, in a nutshell, these are my favorite values per round relative to their respective ADP. 

My values will be based on a Dynasty Superflex, PPR, and TEP format. Adeiko’s ADP currently has rookie picks in place of the rookies themselves, so this series is based on the assumption you are drafting rookie picks in your startup and will have your subsequent rookie draft after the NFL draft. 

Round 1

Josh Allen (1.01)

At this point, I think Josh Allen is the unquestioned 1.01 in Dynasty and in a tier of his own. Because of this, I find his value to be the best in Round 1, even though he’s literally the most expensive player in Dynasty. 

Allen was the QB1 overall in fantasy points per game (FPPG) in three of the past four seasons and Top-3 in each of the past four. And he’s still extremely young, entering his Age 28 season in 2024. He’s a proven threat on the ground, rushing for at least 400 yards and six TDs every season since he entered the NFL. This rushing upside, combined with his rocket arm, makes Allen the best asset in Superflex formats. 

Round 2

Jahmyr Gibbs (2.10)

Jahmyr Gibbs is my Dynasty RB1 overall. If you want some in-depth information comparing Gibbs to Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson (the other two consensus Tier-1 RBs), you can check that out here. 

Gibbs finished his rookie season as the RB8 in FPPG, ceding most of the work to David Montgomery in the first half of the season. As the year progressed, Gibbs earned a larger role in this offense, taking more of those high-value touches in the red zone and the goalline. Gibbs is a reliable pass catcher with three more years on his rookie contract, playing in a high-powered offense, and he’s just turning 22 this month. I’ll gladly take my top-rated RB if he falls to me at pick 22 in a startup. 

Round 3

Trey McBride (3.11)

After Zach Ertz suffered a quad injury in Week 7, Trey McBride took over TE1 honors in this Arizona offense and certainly didn’t disappoint. Outside of Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, there may not be another player who saw their Dynasty value rise as much as McBride did in 2023. Since Week 8, McBride averaged 8.5 targets, 7.6 receptions, and 62.5 yards per game. He just turned 24 and is entering Year 3 of his NFL career, and is currently the top pass-catcher for Kyler heading into 2024. 

Now, it’s highly likely Arizona will grab a wide receiver in the NFL Draft. Marvin Harrison Jr. has -225 odds on DraftKings to be an Arizona Cardinal next season. But I think this is a good thing for McBride. Adding an elite talent like MHJ will help take attention away from McBride and help him to be even more efficient on a per-route basis. He deserves to go much closer to Sam LaPorta, who is going at the 3.01 right now. I’d much prefer McBride at the 3-4 turn, as I don’t see much difference between the two.  

Round 4

Drake London (4.10)

After a disappointing Year 2, some Dynasty owners were ready to throw in the towel on London. However, there is finally some hope in Atlanta as we wait to see who they bring in as their signal caller for 2024. On DraftKings, Kirk Cousins currently has the best odds of signing with the Falcons, at -225 odds, followed by Justin Fields, at +140 odds. Obviously, from a fantasy perspective, almost all of us would prefer Cousins for our Drake London shares, as we could expect a high-volume passing attack. But even Justin Fields would be a significant upgrade compared to Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. We just saw D.J. Moore finish as the WR6 overall with Fields at the helm.

Drake London is still just 22 years old and entering Year 3 of his career. As a rookie, he finished as the WR2 overall in target rate (32.4%) and the WR11 in yards per route run (YPRR). He was a Round 1 draft selection, and we know he’s a special prospect who has yet to enter his prime. London is going around the WR 17/18, according to Adeiko ADP (depending on if two or three rookie WRs go ahead of him), which is an excellent value in my mind. Let’s not forget that London is younger than Rashee Rice and Tank Dell, who are going within four picks of him. 

Round 5 

Rookie Pick 1.07 (5.03)

As it stands today, the 1.07 rookie pick looks to be either Rome Odunze, Brock Bowers, or J.J. McCarthy in Superflex formats. This pick is going directly behind Rashee Rice and Tank Dell, and directly in front of Dalton Kincaid, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson. One could argue that any of these veteran players are safer options, as we can project out their future production with much more confidence. Maybe that’s true, but I think all three rookies are fairly safe bets and arguably have higher ceilings. 

When all things are equal, the tie-breaker goes to the rookie pick in startups. The pick has more flexibility than the veteran player, and we can confidently say that the rookie pick won’t drop in value between now and the rookie draft. If McCarthy gets Round 2 DC or Odunze suffers an injury while working out, the 1.07 will still hold the same relative value, as it’s not tied to a specific player yet. But if you draft someone like T.J. Hockenson and hear he has a major setback in his recovery, or you draft Rice and the Chiefs use multiple early-round picks on wide receivers, your 5th-round startup pick has dropped in value before Week 1 of the regular season.

Round 6

Rookie Pick 1.08 (6.02)

I wanted to pick a veteran player here for the sake of not being boring, but that would be disingenuous, so I’m taking what I feel is the actual best value with the 1.08 here. Again, this should be one of the three aforementioned rookies above. From recent mocks I’ve been in, it seems like the pick is more likely than not McCarthy, and looking at the surrounding players going by this pick, I think he would have the highest ceiling. The 1.08 is going one pick before Deshaun Watson, who is a fine value here, but McCarthy has the higher odds to be taken in the first three rounds of Superflex startups this time next year. 

To reiterate, the flexibility of the pick doesn’t tie you to McCarthy or anyone else for that matter. If McCarthy finds himself with much worse draft capital than expected, you could pivot to Brian Thomas Jr, Ladd McConkey, or whoever is your next favorite rookie on the list. Rookie picks are like U.S. Treasury Bonds. They are virtually risk-free in terms of losing value in the offseason. If we aim to increase roster value as much as possible, they are typically a good bet. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding