Rapid Reaction: Russell Wilson to the Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers have officially found their quarterback for the 2024 season, as word spread on Sunday that Russell Wilson had been signed to a one-year deal. In this article, I want to briefly cover Russ’s contract terms and dynasty implications for him and his surrounding cast. 

Steelers Nation, Let’s Ride

According to ESPN, Wilson was signed to a one-year deal with Pittsburgh for the veteran’s minimum of $1.21 million. This means the Broncos are on the hook, paying $38 million of Wilson’s 2024 salary. 

This looks like one hell of a deal for Pittsburgh. They’re paying Russ less out of pocket than most backup quarterbacks make in the NFL today. If he faceplants, they’re really not out any real money. This low risk move almost certainly increases their odds at an AFC South Championship, as their other option was Kenny Pickett. While Russ has shown he’s not the same player he was in Seattle, Kenny Pickett has proven he’s completely incapable of leading an offense and feeding his playmakers. Let’s look at the numbers between Pickett and Russ these past two seasons. 

Numbers Don’t Lie

The days of Russell Wilson averaging 20+ FPPG are long gone. However, he’s still putting up QB2 numbers and is being valued around a mid-11th-round startup pick, according to Adeiko’s ADP. Entering his Age 36 season on a one-year veteran’s minimum deal does not give us a bunch of confidence when projecting out his future production. But he’s being valued around the 2.06 rookie pick at this time. If you need some QB depth on a contending dynasty roster, this is a cheap way to add a QB3 to your team and add some stability to your lineup as you make your run.

Russ had a brutal Year 1 in Denver but bounced back nicely in 2023, finishing as the QB14 overall and the QB12 in FPPG. And he’s still adding some value as a rusher, averaging 3.5 fantasy points on the ground last season. Kenny Pickett, on the other hand, has been flat-out terrible in every area as a passer. He’s managed to throw just 13 touchdowns in 25 games to start his NFL career and still has yet to pass for 2,500 in a season. Pickett’s FPPG dropped from 12.2 to 9.5 in Year 2, as he showed absolutely zero improvement from his rookie campaign. The Kenny Pickett project is officially dead, and Russell Wilson should serve as a sufficient bridge quarterback until 2025. Hell, maybe he’ll surprise us and perform well in Pittsburgh and earn himself an extension. 

Dynasty Impact

As I suggested earlier, I think Wilson is a decent buy at his current cost, but only if you are contending for a 2024 championship. We don’t know that he’ll even have a starting job after this upcoming season, so spending a 2nd-round rookie pick on Russ as a middling team would be a terrible move. 

I think this move improves the outlook for the Pittsburgh pass catchers in the immediate future, and because of this, we should move them up our boards slightly. We also need to keep in mind Arthur Smith is the OC now, who loves running the football, so we need to temper our expectations. The Steelers and Broncos threw at a similar rate in 2023 (506 to 513) so we can probably expect similar volume from Russ in 2024. His top two receivers, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, finished as the WR38 and WR55 in FPPG, respectively. Not great. While I’m more confident in Diontae Johnson and George Pickens‘ ability to produce, I’m not pretending this does anything life-changing to their dynasty value. I think they’re a “hold” at their current ADP, but if you have a league mate you know is excited about this move, I’d be willing to sell either player. 

Denver Broncos

Who will be the new franchise QB in Denver? It will likely be a rookie quarterback taken in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. On DraftKings, Bo Nix leads the pack with +200 odds to be a Bronco in 2024. Not far behind him is J.J. McCarthy, with +350 odds, and then Michael Penix Jr, with +600 odds. There’s also a possibility Denver trades up to a Top-5 pick and takes one of the top-rated QBs in this class. Regardless, it seems like a lock that Denver will be putting out a rookie quarterback next season as they try to forget about the pile of money they are paying Russ to compete against them. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding