Everything is getting colder. The leaves are falling, Halloween is here and it is unofficially the witching hour in the regular season of fantasy football. It’s time to turn on the heaters and make a big run in the heart of the bye weeks. Although we know that the first week is just as important mathematically as week 12 or 14, these next few weeks seemingly take on extra weight as we position for playoff seeds and earn the ever-important byes and golden tickets to the championship rounds. There are only four weeks to go in the Main Event and Footballguys Players Championship regular season. Only the top four seeds in each 12-team league will make it to the league playoffs. Many of these teams are already eliminated in their head if not yet mathematically, and they’re probably right.
You Should Have a Pretty Clear Picture of Your Competitive Status By Now
However.
I recently wrote about my top-10 comparisons between poker and fantasy football (#6-10 and #1-5), but perhaps the most important lesson (besides #3) is this:
You Can Go From the Outhouse To the Penthouse Very Quick
But not as fast as you can fall from the penthouse downwards. Don’t rest on your laurels. Don’t blow all your FAAB prematurely (like I recklessly did in a couple of spots last year). And in redraft tourneys, don’t ever give up. Keep hustling. I won my league championship in one FBG tourney league last year after starting 0-5. Total points scored matter and I went on a big heater. “Forget about the curveball, Ricky. Give him the heater.”
A Chip and a Chair is All You Need to Take This Thing Down (Maybe)
Dynasty is different because by now people are giving up and actively tearing it down. There are deals to be had. I’ve made a couple. One where I’m competitive and one where I’m not. The latter is a $250 SuperFlex Dynasty where I won the inaugural startup ship in 2020, and started 2021 on a big heater, going 7-0 with 27/28 possible Victory Points. That team is 2-12 since then. I moved Aaron Jones (RB – GB) for Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS), Keaontay Ingram (RB – AZ) and a 2023 1st from the defending champion (who has a good team but a questionable WR corps). It is at least conceivable their team falls apart and doesn’t finish high at all. I think it is good value regardless, and this team of mine is sneaky good and has the potential to go on a heater again. Even though it has been running bad for a while now.
In a $250 1QB FFPC dynasty league, I traded my 2023 1st that I project to be late (I am the current 1 seed) for Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) straight up as I do need some RB help. I also bought Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN) for a late 2023 2nd in a third league because I believe and had several 2nds available. Probably a little loose.
I Know It’s Getting Serious Now Because My Last Two Undefeated Teams Lost
7-1 it shall be then.
I’ve had some recent tough calls that have worked out. I was fortunate enough to be on the High Stakes Lowdown with @EricBalkman this past week and was asked about a couple sleeper plays.
People are benching Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS) so I named him, even though that is a bit of a stretch. Quarterback has been the position I’ve been streaming sleepers like crazy, with mixed results but mostly success. This week names like PJ Walker (QB – CAR) and Taylor Heinecke (QB – WAS) performed well in spot starts. And apparently Justin Fields (QB – CHI) is evolving to must-start status. But the biggest win I have to claim after my talk with Balky was the mutual love we had for rookie Romeo Doubs (WR – GB) who had a solid night on Sunday Night Football against the Bills. He connected on a deep ball just like Balky and I thought he would. I started Doubs in a number of spots this weekend and got paid off for it.
My toughest call so far of the season (by far) was to bench DK Metcalf in most spots this week. I did not trust his status going into Sunday and benched him in favor of Doubs in a few spots, as well as Darius Slayton (WR – NYG), another call I made on the show, and even Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG). Metcalf scored more than all those options but the fantasy gods have seen fit not to punish me for it. I do have one matchup tonight that may hinge on the decision I made, but…
I Have Made a Living in This Hobby Following My Own Advice
It’s not too late to go on a big heater and make the playoffs, but don’t let your front-running teams get cold either. Happy Halloween!!
Stay sharp out there and remember, you only have to be better than half your league mates on average to be a perennial playoff team. Let’s keep balling! Look for more of my articles soon. Feel free to reach out to me to chat about fantasy football on Twitter @Ship_Chaser and follow along with me on my journey as I chase six-figure paydays!
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