If you are new to DFS, a Primer is available here. Full Appendix available at the bottom for any terms not understood here.
As we get closer to the Fantasy Football Playoffs, many of us will have fewer teams to manage as the season goes on. This is where DFS can add to the experience of a Sunday morning session of NFL RedZone. We have nearly a full slate with 11 games this week and even some reasonably high totals to play around with. With lots of good plays on this slate, let’s dig in!
Week 10 Report Card
H2H ITM%: 23%
H2H ROI: (-58.6%)
Double Up Cash line: 147.12
I completely was got by this. Due to moving Hockenson out of my lineup and wanting to fit in Burrow, I moved off of the two TE build that I was on most of last week. It would be to my detriment though. We had the potential for a full heart and full DK account, but alas we received the blade. I am going to move away from doing cash plays in the article because they change so much by the time we get to Sunday. You will get an extra Top Play, Value Play, and Value Stack each week going forward instead.
Cash Line: 152.86
Winning Score: 247.46
There are some positives in this lineup but taking the snowflakes from ETN, London, and Hollywood killed any chances we had of being profitable with this lineup. The Jaguars getting completely boat-raced hurt me in a lot of different spots. Overall, I do not hate this build just think it ran a bit cold.
Top Lineup Payout: 0x
Cash Line: 155.26
Winning Score: 256.16
This week I played a much more narrow group of players. A narrow group that did not include Hockenson or Dak Prescott. I helped pay the rake for all the other users on DK this past weekend. I don’t hate the strategy of isolating where you want to attack on a slate but if you are wrong you have to prepare to see your money go away and not come back. My fear was a blowout script could limit Dak’s effectiveness which was a little silly in hindsight because they did the same things to the Rams a couple of weeks ago and Dak smashed that game.
Cardinals @ Texans (48.5)
Bears @ Lions (47.5)
Raiders @ Dolphins (47.5)
Seahawks @ Rams (46.5)
Standing at the top we have a game that looks like all sorts of fun to stack. Kyler Murray ($6.9K) showed some flashes and while he didn’t put up a huge game, we can still see he still has it. C.J. Stroud ($7.0K) has been incredibly impressive as a rookie and has made this rotating group of pass catchers all extremely relevant as well. The two games right below it in total have most of the expected points coming from an obvious favorite in Detroit or Miami. Finally, the Seahawks and Rams game may be a little gross from a real football perspective, but does project to have lots of fantasy points.
Dak Prescott (DAL): $7,300 @ Carolina
Dak has been on a heater now for weeks, and I have written about him most of those weeks. For some odd reason, I got too cute and faded him last week. I have been punished for my sins, and to repent, I will make sure I am overweight on Dak lineups this week. Lock CeeDee Lamb ($9.2K) into those lineups then just pick another Dallas pass catcher. The other ones are pretty cheap. While you are not required to have a bringback I do think that it is beneficial here since it is a pretty low-owned Adam Thielen ($7.5K), who has shown us a ceiling even in blowout game scripts.
C.J. Stroud (HOU): $7,000 vs. Arizona
I would have never guessed that C.J. Stroud would become a weekly regular in my top stacks column, but the kid has been sensational. Awesome DFS quarterback too, with the way he spreads the ball around to different pass catchers. It appears there will be no Noah Brown this week which just consolidates targets to Tank Dell ($5.9K), Nico Collins ($6.7), Robert Woods ($3.7K), and Dalton Schultz ($5.0K). With pieces at different price ranges, you can create a multitude of different Stroud lineups as completely different builds.
Kyler Murray (ARI): $6,100 @ Houston
Our Discord channel was blowing up as Kyler Murray was out there doing Kyler Murray things. Covering approximately 245 yards (estimate) to gain 11 yards. You love to see it. While his fantasy production last week was nothing that will make anyone rich, the eyeball test showed us that he still has some juice and the ACL is fully healthy. All systems go this week. Trey McBride ($4.4K) looks like the number one target while Marquise Brown ($5.3K) saw fewer targets than both Michael Wilson ($3.4K) and Rondale Moore ($3.3K). I am not sure if this was a first-game back thing or a sign of things to come. Price adjusted, I prefer the cheaper WRs to Hollywood this week.
Christian McCaffrey: $9,300 vs. Tampa Bay
I am gonna take just a moment to brag. Last week’s DFS article smashed. The entire article was just full of guys that would have made you money. If I had listened to my advice more, perhaps I would be retired now and on a beach somewhere. One of the few players that missed last week was CMC. If I am gonna miss on any guy in the NFL, I am okay with it being CMC. To be fair, 20.2 DK points would not sink your lineup entirely, there were just much better price-adjusted plays on the slate. If that is a floor game for CMC then sign me up weekly for the ride and I’ll take my chances.
CeeDee Lamb: $9,200 @ Carolina
The debate over who is the Dynasty WR3 has been a topic of discussion amongst the rankers here at DFF. It is between two alpha WRs in the NFC East, CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown. The alpha season that both of these guys are having has been a blast to watch. We do not have A.J. Brown on this slate though so CeeDee Lamb comes in at my favorite WR play on the slate. Tyreek Hill ($9.3K) is coming in at nearly double the ownership while the projections I am using have Lamb as the better play. I will surely have some exposure to Hill as well, but Lamb is the preferred spend-up WR for me this week.
Austin Ekeler: $8,600 @ Green Bay
After injuries and a slow return for Ekeler, we finally have him back to his usual self. The volume has been fantastic, and this matchup is beautiful. Green Bay has shown itself to be great against opposing passing attacks while struggling with opposing running backs. This could be a spot where Ekeler puts up a slate-breaking performance if he gets 19 carries and 7 targets like he did a week ago.
D.J. Moore (CHI): $5,600 @ Detroit
This is a price that was set based on how well Moore has performed with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. With Justin Fields ($6.9K) in the lineup, we saw some monster games out of Moore. While the matchup is not great against a tough Lions defense, the price is extremely cheap for a guy with WR1 on the week upside. At this price tag, he doesn’t necessarily have to do that. If he puts up a 20-point performance in DraftKings scoring, he will crush his FPTS/$.
Darrell Henderson Jr. (LAR): vs. Seattle
Fantastic matchup here against a Seattle defense that ranks 28th in the league against opposing running backs. Stafford returns which means this offense should move the ball more effectively, and even in a time split, it wouldn’t take much for Henderson to get there. We also know that Sean McVay likes to run the ball a lot in the redzone, so there is plenty of touchdown upside here. Vegas oddsmakers currently have Seattle as 1 point favorites, I like the Rams here. I think the Seahawks are frauds, and we see the Rams play from ahead here.
Pat Freiermuth (PIT): $2,500 @ Cleveland
Min-priced tight end that saw 4 targets in three of the first four games this season is enough. It takes so little at this price tag to pay off a salary. If he gets to double digits it’s a complete smash, and if he happens to fall into the endzone then he is likely the best FPTS/$ play at the position. The matchup is one of the toughest in the league but we need so little to justify this salary. Also, remember we have had a couple of different Milly Maker winners this year that completely whiffed on tight end so just saving the money to spend elsewhere could be enough even if Freiermuth doesn’t put up an impressive stat line.
Brock Purdy (SF): $5,800 vs. Tampa Bay
The nice part about getting rid of the Cash Game Core section is now we get more gross value stacks. When the 49ers have a fully operational battle station with all their weapons, Purdy has been fantastic from a fantasy perspective. He is also one of the few quarterbacks that I will allow his running back to be part of his stack. The savings you get on Purdy help to afford a guy like Christian McCaffrey. He also has some fantastic pass catchers in Brandon Aiyuk ($7.2K), Deebo Samuel ($6.3K), and George Kittle ($6.4K).
Baker Mayfield (TB): $5,300 @ San Francisco
Still sliding under the radar is how well Baker has performed this season. He was in a couple of versions of my cash lineups last week, but I decided to use Joe Burrow instead. The San Francisco defense has been gotten a few times this season through the air and is not quite the same lockdown defense they were in previous seasons. You can even design a Mayfield stack as a “playing from behind” scenario with CMC as your bringback on the other side. His two primary pass catchers are obvious, but Cade Otton ($3.4K) has shown an ability to reach a ceiling game as well.
Low Owned Plays
Stefon Diggs (BUF): $9,100 vs. New York (A)
“He who does not risk it, shall receive no biscuit” –– Confucius (probably)
Scared money does not make money, and this is a scary play. Sauce Gardener and DJ Reed might be the best pair of corners in the league. That and things in Buffalo seem to be discontent, and we have a new offensive coordinator. All these things will make people afraid to click Diggs when they can just click CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill for just a little more. Diggs provides great leverage off of those extremely popular plays. He may have a poor game, but you can’t be afraid of getting last in DFS if you want to get first.
Saquon Barkley (NYG): $7,100 @ Washington
Most players will not click anyone in the Giants offense led by Tommy DeVito ($5.0K). The matchup is pretty solid against a Commanders’ defense that was gutted at the trade deadline. There are a lot of popular and safer running back plays which allows Barkley to be a fantastic pivot in a matchup that doesn’t scare us. He is also game script independent as they will use him in the passing game as well.
Gut Play of the Week
De’Von Achane (MIA): $6,600 vs. Las Vegas
After he has 135 yards on 8 carries with 2 touchdowns he will be chalk again next week. Jam him in while people are nervous about his first game back. The matchup is against one of the worst run defenses in football, and game script should lead to both him and Raheem Mostert getting plenty of touches. He breaks all the projection and efficiency models with his speed and the Miami scheme. This is one that you gotta take your head out of the spreadsheets for.
Fun slate this week for sure despite another week with no Jalen Hurts and no Patrick Mahomes. Other quarterbacks have stepped it up to give us something to be excited about on the Sunday main slate. Some teams still have laughable quarterbacks lining up under center, but at least there are enough professional quarterbacks to give us some reasonable options on Sunday. Good luck to everyone, I hope you enter a new tax bracket on Sunday!
Thanks so much for reading. If you want to discuss more, you can reach me on Twitter, you can find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, DFS, Sports Betting, Devy, and IDP. Annual Subscribers also get access to our discord server where you can get access to our entire staff!