Author name: Carl Churchill

Dynasty addict and writer for @DFF_Dynasty. You can find me on Twitter @RookieWhisper. #DFFArmy #DynastyFootball #FantasyFootball You have to listen to the numbers, but sometimes they lie...

Does the NFL Combine REALLY matter?

Everyone is touting “Their Guys” and making bold predictions for the Combine. I love taking in this information, as it gives me a better idea of how the community views the perceived athleticism and value of the upcoming rookies. We all want our favorite players to do well at the NFL Combine, but does their Combine performance matter?

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Prediction: Combine Risers

Listed at 6’4 220 pounds, Cole McDonald looks like an NFL talent. McDonald has a rocket of an arm and moves very well for his size. As a two year starter at Hawaii, the gunslinger threw for 8,010 yards and 69 touchdowns. Although putting up video game numbers, McDonald is considered a day 3 prospect by most. This is likely due to a funky throwing motion and less than desirable completion percentage of 61.4. However, with a strong performance in Indianapolis, I believe Cole McDonald can make his way into the Day 2 decision. To do this, he will need to run a good 40 time and show off his arm talent. 

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2020 WR Sleepers

While creating my 2020 WR Model, I found a few under the radar players not getting much love currently, but I believe these players 100% deserve your attention leading up to and after the NFL draft. These players all have elements that both analytic nuts and film grinders should be able to appreciate. They all “broke-out” their sophomore year, and have good traits seen on film. When a player checks both of those boxes, I am officially intrigued. Keep reading to see my breakdowns of these potential sleepers.

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2020 Wide Receiver Pre-Draft Profile: Lynn Bowden Jr.

“Athlete” Lynn Bowden Jr. was not a player I was very familiar with until the Belk Bowl Brawl. If you are not aware, Bowden Jr. was involved in a pre-game scuffle before the Kentucky vs. Virginia Tech game. It was the drama that got my attention, but it was his play on the field that intrigued me.  

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Top Landing Spots For the 2020 WR Class

The NFL Regular Season is coming to an end, and that means the NFL Draft is approaching. If you are like us, the Rookie Draft is one of your favorite things about dynasty leagues, and it is never too soon to start looking ahead to the NFL Draft and how it will affect your Rookie Draft. Every year a WR falls into a juicy situation and their ADP skyrockets as the hype builds. Here are some of the best landing spots for WRs in the 2020 class. 

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NFC South Dynasty Nuggets – Buy, Sell, Hold Edition

Every week this series will attempt to bring clarity to the goings-on, both on and off the field within each NFL Division so that dynasty owners can make championship level decisions based on our actionable information. Our writers will be digging through data and film for inference on coach/front office decision making so that they can keep you equipped with the “nuggets” you need to succeed. This week I will be addressing all the key players in the NFC South, letting you know if you should be looking to buy, sell, or hold them as we move into the offseason.

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NFC South: Week 6 and 7 Dynasty Nuggets

Every week this series will attempt to bring clarity to the goings-on, both on and off the field within each NFL Division so that dynasty owners can make championship level decisions based on our actionable information. Our writers will be digging through data and film for inference on coach/front office decision making so that they can keep you equipped with the “nuggets” you need to succeed.

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NFC South: Week 4 and 5 Dynasty Nuggets

DJ Moore (WR – CAR)
The second-year WR out of Maryland was the second leading receiver on Panthers in Weeks 4 and 5. Note how I didn’t say WR, as RB Christain McCaffery has led the team in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns the past two weeks. However, on the year, Moore has been the most productive pass-catcher on the Panthers this season, leading the team with 352 yards, good for WR29 on the year prior to Monday Night Football. Moore is a solid WR2/3 option moving forward.

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NFC South Divisional Nuggets: Week 3 Three

This series will attempt to bring clarity to the goings-on, both on and off the field within each NFL Division so that dynasty owners can make the critical roster decisions during the NFL season to help them build toward their championships. Our writers will be grinding the tape and keeping up with the media buzz surrounding players, coaches and front office decision making so they can keep you equipped with the “nuggets” you need to succeed.

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Pettis’s Perplexing Progression

After a scorching hot finish to the 2018 season, the heat carried the Hot Air Balloon that is Dante Pettis’s value high into the sky. However, the month of August has not been kind to the University of Washington product, as he suffers a challenging camp and preseason. As the heat is decreasing and the Hot Air Balloon begins to sink what should you do?

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2019 Deep Sleepers for Redraft

It’s late in your draft, and you’re scrolling and scrolling. You’re looking for a late-round sleeper to catch your eye. You ask yourself, “Who could have a big season?”. Should you take the handcuff to your early-round RB? Or maybe someone with more upside. You narrow it down to a few players and start to think it through. Do you want the veteran who many are doubting due to his age? Or do you want the young athletic freak that could finally put it all together this year? They could both end up hitting, or they could both end up being nothing. Well if they meet the two criteria I’m about to reveal they could both be great additions to your team. There are two main things I look for in my late-round picks, and that is: OPPORTUNITY and EFFICIENCYOpportunity is often what determines a player’s level of fantasy production. You can’t be an RB1 without plenty of opportunities, in the form of carries and targets. Ezekiel Elliott led the NFL in carries last year, so it is no surprise he also led the league in rushing yards. Julio Jones led the NFL in targets last year, and he too led the NFL in receiving yards. As you have heard, many analysts say, “Opportunity is King.”Efficiency is needed when a player doesn’t necessarily get an abundance of opportunity. What a player lacks in opportunity, they must make up for that with efficiency. For example, let’s compare Antonio Brown’s and Michael Thomas’s 2018 seasons. Brown had 168 targets, for 104 catches and 1,297 yards. Thomas had 147 targets, for 125 catches and 1,405 yards. Thomas was able to outproduce Brown in catches and yards even though he had 21 fewer targets. He was able to do this because he had a much higher catch rate, 85% vs. 61.9%. Posting high yards per reception, yards per carry, and performing well in other more advanced efficiency statistics can also allow a player to outperform their perceived opportunity. Below are a few players that meet the above criteria this year.

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20/20 Vision: J.J. Arcega-Whiteside

They say patience is a virtue. It can be hard showing patience in dynasty football. Holding onto players when they are not producing can make you sweat and cut bait on players not helping you win at the moment. Well, I am going to go in depth on a player worth waiting on. JJ Arcega-Whiteside (JJAW) is an outstanding player that may not produce right away.

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The Ultimate Late Round Steal, You Hurd it Here First

Every year there is an impact player or two that falls through the cracks of rookie drafts. Identifying these players and drafting them puts your team ahead of the curve. This year, I believe one of these players is San Francisco 49ers WR, Jalen Hurd. The third round selection in the 2019 NFL Draft, is a 6’5”, 230-pound athlete who is still new to the position of WR. Hurd came out of Beech Senior High in Henderson, Tennessee as the eighth best RB in the country, according to ESPN.Despite having offers from Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and Florida, Jalen decided to stay close to home and attend Tennessee. Jalen dominated in his first two years at Tennessee, carrying his Derrick Henry-esque frame for 2,595 total yards, and 21 touchdowns. His sophomore season, of 1,475 yards and 14 touchdowns, is particularly impressive, considering he did this starting over the future Pro Bowler, Alvin Kamara.In 2016 Jalen Hurd realized he wanted to prolong his playing career and make the switch to WR. His request to play WR was denied by the staff at Tennessee. This ultimately lead Hurd to decide to transfer out of Tennessee. In 2018, Jalen Hurd took the field as a starting WR for the Baylor Bears. In his first year playing WR, Hurd had 69 catches for 949 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also added 209 yards and 3 touchdowns as a situational RB.After the 2019 NFL Draft, I decided to create a “model” to help with my personal WR rankings. I was pleasantly surprised when Jalen Hurd came out as the fourth best WR. To create this model, I gave grades for film, analytics, opportunity, and draft capital, to all drafted WRs. (I hope to provide more insight about my “model” in the future).

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