Welcome back to part one of my weekly publications, my weekly picks against the spread! For these articles, I will provide analysis on three bets that I feel have the best chance at netting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing.
I will also make predictions on the rest of the week’s spreads. To keep myself accountable, I’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses on the three bets I provide analysis on. These predictions are more “gut feel,” but you should still feel free to use them to help you place your wagers!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Let’s get started.
A Brief Recap of Week 7
Well, at least we’re back to .500. The Bills became the second team in a row to fail to cover the spread against the Dolphins. Perhaps they’ve turned a corner? Elsewhere, the Jets
In-depth picks: 9-11-0
Overall: 53-53-2
Jets (+6) at Jaguars
I’ll admit it; this line confuses me. Yes, the Jets were just beaten so badly that Quarterback Sam Darnold started running plays from Haley Joel Osment’s playbook. And true, the Jaguars did just dismantle the Bengals at home to drop Cincinnati to an 0-7 record. But, both these teams should be viewed through more than just a one-game lens.
Let’s not forget that Sam Darnold and the Jets scored an upset win over Dallas in a game where the Cowboys were a touchdown favorite just two weeks ago. And while they suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of the Patriots, this 2019 New England team may be one of the best iterations of this team that we’ve seen.
The Jaguars have a fun quarterback and sweet catchphrase, but through three quarters, they were barely hanging tight with the aforementioned winless Bengals. Minshew was under fire through most of the game, and it took some fourth-quarter heroics to secure the win in Week 7 against a team that some are ranking as the worst in the league.
While I’m not sure that the Jets can win outright with key contributors such as C.J. Mosley sitting out, I can’t in good faith pick them to lose by almost a touchdown against a team that was struggling against the Bengals. Give me the points in what I assume will not be a fun game to watch.
Broncos at Colts (-4.5)
By trading Emmanuel Sanders, the Broncos have made one thing clear. The 2019 season is a wash. They have given up the fourth-most sacks in the league, their offense has not improved from last year’s atrocity, and now they are trading away productive veterans for 2020 draft picks. Their defense is admittedly still impressive, but even they are experiencing struggles as they have failed to consistently generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
The Colts, meanwhile, seem to be a team trending in the opposite direction. They just knocked off a surging Texans team and remain one game ahead in a competitive AFC South. Despite losing franchise legend Andrew Luck, the Colts have rallied around backup Jacoby Brisset, who ranks fourth in the league with 14 passing touchdowns. He’s demonstrated good decision making as well, having only tossed three interceptions this year.
The Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in 2019 and actually lead the league in cover percentage. The Broncos, meanwhile, sit at 3-4 ATS this year. Perhaps it’s a gut call, but with two teams trending in such opposite directions, I’ll ride the Colts’ wave of momentum in this game.
Dolphins (+13.5) at Steelers
Don’t look now, but the Dolphins are streaking! Not in the actual win-loss column, mind you. In that sense, the team is still an absolute dumpster fire. But, the Dolphins have beat the spread in the past two weeks to reach a 2-4 ATS record on the year. Call me crazy, but I think they can make it three in a row.
Without the Three B’s, the Steelers’ offense has looked putrid this year. They rank 28th in the league overall, 28th in passing yards, and 26th in rushing yards. The Steelers are excited to welcome Mason Rudolph back to the lineup, the same Mason Rudolph, who has only thrown for more than 200 yards once this season against the hapless Bengals. And while the Dolphins are notoriously great medicine for an ailing quarterback, Fitzmagic and Co. quietly lit it up against the third-ranked defense in the NFL last week. With their offense clicking, this game should be a lot closer than two touchdowns.
This may wind up being one of the worst Monday Night Football games in recent memory, but if you want to make the game a little more exciting, place some money on the streaking Fins.
The Rest:
Eagles at Bills (-2)
Bengals at Rams (-12.5)
Giants (+6.5) at Lions
Chargers at Bears (-4)
Cardinals (+10.5) at Saints
Buccaneers at Titans (-2.5)
Panthers (+6) at 49’ers
Browns at Patriots (-10.5)
Raiders at Texans (-6.5)
Packers (-4) at Chiefs
