Finally, the 2020 NFL Season is less than one week away! While there were doubts that the season would occur due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we are officially set to begin the season on September 10. For those of you wishing to sneak in some last-minute season-long plays, below are my predictions for NFC team win totals heading into this new year. A full disclaimer that these predictions are predicated on the belief that the season proceeds as planned with limited interruptions due to the pandemic.
All lines are provided by our friends at DraftKings. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership, but also an extra $10 in DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
NFC North
Bears – Over/Under 7.5 Wins
Does anyone actually have the Bears winning half their games? The offense is an absolute mess. Meanwhile, the supposedly elite defense is showing some notably gaping holes. Starting defensive lineman Eddie Goldman opted out of 2020, while the team seems confident in rolling out second-round rookie Jaylon Johnson opposite standout Kyle Fuller. This seems like a no-brainer for me.
Pick: Under
Lions – Over/Under 6.5 Wins
https://twitter.com/PFF_Anthony/status/1300433354047840260?s=20Often lost in the Lions’ miserable 2019 season was just how well Matthew Stafford was playing before he was hurt. The Lions were 3-3-1 before Stafford went down which included a tight 30-34 loss to the Chiefs and a game against the Packers which, quite honestly, they should have won. I am not predicting them to go to the Superbowl by any means, but this is a team that could easily lean on Stafford’s right arm to carry them to an 8-8 season.
Pick: Over
Packers – Over/Under 8.5 Wins
To say the Packers’ offseason has been confusing would be the understatement of the year. Much has been made of the ongoing decision to seemingly deplete the roster of any offensive talent. Rodgers is an amazing talent and will go to the Hall of Fame someday, but this is one hole that may be too deep for him to crawl out of alone.
Pick: Under
Vikings – Over/Under 9 Wins
While the Vikings experienced a 10-6 season and once again stunned the Saints in the playoffs, do not expect the same level of success this year. This roster has been absolutely gutted. While the defense added promising pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue, they lost four starters in Everson Griffen, Trae Waynes, Xavier Rhodes, and Linval Joseph. The offense, meanwhile, looks to replace Stefon Diggs’ production by rolling out seventh-round pick Olabisi Johnson as their second wide receiver. While the team has promising young talents that should eventually ease these woes, it will not come quickly enough to bring about another 10-win season.
Pick: Under
NFC South
Buccaneers – Over/Under 9.5 Wins
Has any team had a more exciting offseason than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? By adding Tom Brady, the Buccaneers made a conscious choice to eliminate one of the main problems that plagued their team last year, unnecessary turnovers. Brady, meanwhile, upgrades from PFF’s 30th ranked receiving unit to the number one overall group. If the defense can take a step forward, the Buccaneers could make quite a bit of noise this year.
Pick: Over
Falcons – Over/Under 7.5 Wins
This line just feels disrespectful to the Falcons who have watched promising seasons in 2018 and 2019 derail due to injuries. But the Falcons went on an absolute tear to close out last season while beating some of the best teams in the NFC. The NFC South will be a juggernaut of a division, and the Falcons are tied for the fifth-hardest strength of schedule. But if the Falcons can demonstrate the same level of play that they did to close out 2019, they should clear 7.5 wins on the year.
Pick: Over
Panthers – Over/Under 5.5 Wins
While I certainly love what Matt Rhule and Joe Brady have done with the offense this offseason, I cannot help but stare at the dark void that is the Panthers’ defense. The Panthers spent their entire 2020 draft class loading up on young, defensive talent and while I think it will be a force to be reckoned with someday, I think most would agree that it is certainly not there yet. Add in the fact that they play in an ultra-competitive division and I would not be shocked if this team was in the running for the number one overall pick in next years’ draft.
Pick: Under
Saints – Over/Under 10.5 Wins
Lost in all the (well-deserved) celebration of Drew Brees’ and Michael Thomas’ historic 2019 season is the fact that the Saints defense performed at a near-elite level. While the overall unit is ranked 13th by PFF, Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, and Marcus Williams all put up stellar grades last season. Marcus Davenport and Marshon Lattimore also had a significant impact in improving the overall play of the defensive unit. If the defense continues to play at this high level, there is no way I am betting against Drew Brees and the Saints.
Pick: Over
NFC East
Cowboys – Over/Under 9.5 Wins
The Cowboys should run away with this division race and, by proxy, clear this win total. They return a pair of 1000 yard receivers, had one of the most exciting rookies fall into their lap at the draft this year, and their division appears to be in a state of flux due to injuries and coaching turnover. But the Cowboys were also in this position last year and absolutely squandered their opportunity. The defense also lost standout corner Byron Jones to Miami. I’m taking the over, but I’ll be sweating it all season long.
Pick: Over
Eagles – Over/Under 9 Wins
The Eagles cannot catch a break. A year after placing a quarter (!!!) of their team on Injured Reserve at one point or another, the injury bug has once again ravaged their team. Reports out of Eagles camp already noted Carson Wentz has been dealing with accuracy issues. I cannot imagine it will go better for him now that his starting left tackle has been lost for the year. I feel for Eagles fans; it’s going to be a tough year.
Pick: Under
Giants – Over/Under 6 Wins
There are many signs pointing to the Giants eclipsing this number. Daniel Jones showed some real promise at the end of the last year. The Giants face one of the easier schedules in the NFL. Their division is not particularly strong after the Eagles’ rash of injuries. But I just can’t do it.
New coach Joe Judge has never served in a head coaching or coordinator position in his career. The already thin defense has been significantly affected by recent injuries. While deep down I may be rooting for them to beat this number, a 5-11 finish seems just about right for the Giants.
Pick: Under
Washington – Over/Under 5 Wins
Like it or not, Haskins showed real promise to close out the season. Suggesting he is a poor quarterback based on his overall numbers is lazy analysis, in my opinion, and doesn’t take into account the development he showed throughout the year. The Redskins boast a terrifying front seven touting five first-round picks along with talented players such as Matt Ioannidis. They also play one of the easier schedules in the NFL this year. While I do not believe the Washington Football Team will be a particularly good football team this year, projecting a 4-12 finish seems hasty.
Pick: Over
NFC West
49’ers – Over/Under 10.5 Wins
Initially, I selected the under for the 49’ers due to the unbelievable rash of injuries they have experienced on offense. However, a closer look at their schedule reveals an absolute cakewalk in the early parts of the year. By the time they begin facing tough matchups such as the Seahawks and Saints, their offense should be fully recovered and ready to roll. 10.5 wins is a high total, but the team looks poised to make another deep run into the playoffs.
Pick: Over
Cardinals – Over/Under 7 Wins
Give Steve Keim and the Cardinals credit; they turned what was already a potent passing attack into a deadly one with the addition of Deandre Hopkins. Though the team limped to a 5-10-1 record last year, they played well against quality opponents like the Ravens and 49’ers. The team’s schedule should get them off to a hot start and an 8-8 season seems like the floor for this exciting group.
Pick: Over
Rams – Over/Under 8 Wins
Maybe it’s just Hard Knocks, but it feels like the Rams are entering 2020 with a lot of hype behind them. They return two of the best defensive talents in the game in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. They seem to have uncovered a gem in second-round pick Van Jefferson. But we need to pump the brakes on the Rams. The offensive line ranked 31st out of 32 teams and did nothing to improve in the offseason. Entering the new year with tons of hype but a terrible offensive line? Ask the Browns how well that went for them in 2019.
Pick: Under
Seahawks – Over/Under 9.5 Wins
The Seahawks have finished with 10 or more wins in seven out of the last eight seasons since Russell Wilson came onto the scene in 2012. While the Seahawks made several moves this offseason, the core of the team remains largely intact. They play in a tough division, but their overall schedule ranks middle of the pack. Give me the odds to bet with recent history instead of against it.
Pick: Over
Disagree with my predictions? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive.
