A Redraft Journey: Melvin Gordon

In April, I started writing a series focusing on one player at a time, called “A Redraft Journey.” Like my “Dead to Me” series, I take a deep dive into a single player, breaking down their entire career in redraft fantasy football. However, unlike that series, this set of articles is meant to be more positively toned. I’m excited to get back to writing it, and I’m returning with a full breakdown of Melvin Gordon. He’s had an exciting roller-coaster ride both in the NFL and for fantasy owners, so let’s jump into it!

College Production and Profile

Coming into the NFL, Gordon was a top-tier prospect. At Wisconsin, he saw limited playing time in his freshman year, before joining a committee led by Montee Ball and James White in his sophomore year. In 2013, Gordon exploded. While he still had fewer carries than White, Gordon rushed 206 times for 1,609 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. However, Gordon only managed one reception for 10 yards in the passing game.

After White departed, Gordon finally became a full workhorse in his 2014 senior year. He took 343 carries for 2,587 yards and 29 touchdowns, and he also added 19 receptions for 153 yards and three receiving touchdowns. At the time, Gordon and Georgia running back Todd Gurley were the top two running backs in the 2015 NFL Draft class. The main concern with Gordon was his lack of receiving production before 2014. 

Of course, scouts didn’t know that Gordon shared his college backfield with one of the best receiving backs in the modern NFL in James White. Many people thought that Gordon wasn’t a good receiver, which had started to become vital to a modern NFL running back. Therefore, Gordon fell a bit in the draft, going five picks behind Gurley to the Chargers at 15th overall.

NFL Career Stats

Here are Gordon’s complete NFL stats.

Rookie Year Struggles

In Gordon’s rookie year, he disappointed fantasy owners. He didn’t score a single touchdown all season and split work in an ugly four-way committee. Gordon led the team with 184 carries, but Danny Woodhead, Donald Brown, and Branden Oliver split 188 carries between them. Gordon didn’t look like a star, averaging an ugly 3.5 YPC, although none of the Chargers’ backs succeeded on the ground.

Danny Woodhead led the Chargers in fantasy production, with 80 receptions for 755 yards and six receiving touchdowns. While Gordon did catch 33 of 37 targets for 192 yards, his 5.2 yards/target and 5.8 yards/reception were not impressive. However, Gordon’s passing-game usage was the brightest part of his rookie year, as it at least demonstrated that his NFL team might use him in that phase. Despite competing with a stellar pass-catching back in Woodhead, Gordon had an impressive number of targets for a rookie and caught almost all of them.

2016 and 2017 – Inefficient but Productive

In 2016, the Chargers dropped any pretense of a backfield committee. They moved on from all of their other running backs, whether due to injury or free agency. Gordon dominated backfield touches with 254 carries, and no other running back had more than 60. He had 14 or more carries in all 12 games he completed, and he averaged 21 carries/game in those contests. 

Gordon also ramped up his touchdown production with 12 total touchdowns. While Gordon wasn’t as efficient through the air as in 2015, he improved to 41 receptions for 419 yards and two touchdowns. However, Gordon still managed to have poor rushing efficiency. He only averaged 3.9 YPC, an improvement from 2015, but not an excellent mark. Gordon also missed games for the second straight season, once again at the end of the season. In this case, he got hurt during Week 14 and missed Weeks 15-17, destroying fantasy owners who had relied on Gordon until that point.

After 2016, Gordon remained the unquestioned workhorse back for the Chargers despite his lack of rushing efficiency. The Chargers gave 47 carries to Austin Ekeler and 35 to Branden Oliver, but no one came close to Gordon’s 284 carries. Gordon also finally played a full season in 2017, where he set career-highs in carries, yards, and receptions. He matched his 12 total touchdowns from 2016 and was a fantasy star. For the only time in his career, Gordon played an entire season as a workhorse and truly delivered as an RB1 for fantasy owners.

2018 – A Mixed Bag

Going into 2018, the narrative surrounding Gordon was very clear. He was more valuable for fantasy owners than for the Chargers. Gordon had never exceeded 4.0 YPC, and he had been remarkably inefficient, considering his level of volume. Gordon was also relatively durable, as he played 43 of a possible 48 games in his first three seasons, which is solid for a running back. However, fantasy owners may have considered Gordon to be more injury-prone as he missed the fantasy playoffs in 2015 and 2016.

2018 was a bizarre season for Gordon. On the one hand, he finally became the efficient back that he hadn’t been through his first three seasons. Gordon improved to 5.1 YPC, although he declined to only 14.6 carries per game. Gordon never had more than 20 carries in any game, as he split the work with both Ekeler and Justin Jackson at times throughout 2018. Despite Ekeler’s breakout season, Gordon set career highs in receptions per game and receiving yards per game.

Unfortunately, Gordon once again struggled with injuries in 2018. Gordon mysteriously missed the Chargers’ Week 8 contest in London with a late-declared injury. Even though he only missed the one game, many fantasy owners felt burned by this event, as it came so late in the week. Gordon returned from that injury and played four more games before he suffered an MCL injury in Week 12. 

That injury once again forced Gordon to miss the fantasy playoffs, as Gordon had to sit out until Week 16. Even in Weeks 16 and 17 when Gordon returned, he played limited snaps. Gordon was not available when fantasy owners needed him the most, leaving a sour taste on an otherwise successful season. Gordon had never been more valuable than he was in 2018, but he once again displayed durability concerns.

The Holdout and Fallout

After 2018, Gordon decided to hold out of Chargers’ camp, as he wanted a raise and an extension on his 2019 fifth-year contract option. The Chargers refused to give into Gordon’s demand, and his holdout eventually extended into the 2019 season. Gordon missed the first four games, during which Ekeler blossomed into a star. Ekeler was the RB2 during that period, and he seemed to be on the verge of completely taking Gordon’s job.

With Ekeler excelling, Gordon decided to return from his holdout for Week 5. Gordon played all 12 games after he returned, but he wasn’t the same player as before. He combined his reduced usage from 2018 with his poor efficiency from 2016 and 2017, leading to a subpar fantasy output. Gordon averaged the lowest fantasy PPG in his career, as Ekeler took more and more of the backfield work. 

However, despite all these negatives, Gordon was still the RB12 over the 12 games he played. Ekeler outperformed him as the RB5, but the two players were only 1.7 PPG apart. Gordon also continued his receiving production, even though Ekeler erupted as a receiving back. Philip Rivers dumped the ball off to the running back no matter who was in the game, allowing both Ekeler and Gordon to be PPR values. Even so, Gordon wasn’t the star he used to be, and his reduced efficiency made 2018 look like the outlier in his career, not the norm fantasy owners wanted.

Future in Denver

After 2019, the Chargers decided to offer Ekeler a contract extension and to part ways with Gordon. Gordon found a frosty market in free agency with memories of previous bad running back contracts like Todd Gurley’s and Le’Veon Bell’s. Eventually, Gordon settled for a 2-year, $16 million deal with $13.5 million guaranteed with the Broncos. Based on the contract, Gordon will be the Broncos’ starter for 2020 and 2021, ahead of the former top back, Phillip Lindsay.

Gordon will not be the workhorse in Denver that he was in 2016 and 2017. He’s not going to average 17-19 carries per game, as Lindsay is a talented running back and will not disappear from the offense. I think 14-15 carries per game is a more reasonable expectation for Gordon, similar to what he averaged in 2018 playing alongside Ekeler. If Gordon averages 14.5 carries/game and plays a full 16 games, he would have 232 carries across the 2020 season. This would’ve ranked only 16th in carries among running backs in 2019.

Unlike some of the backs that had more than 232 carries in 2019, Gordon is a competent pass-catcher. Despite some prevalent narratives, Gordon is a far better receiver than Lindsay, who has only had 35 receptions in each of his two seasons. In contrast, Gordon had 50 and 42 receptions in 2018 and 2019 despite sharing a backfield with Ekeler and only playing 12 games in each season. Gordon has also averaged more yards/target in every season he’s played than Lindsay managed in his best season.

Even though Gordon is the better running back, his inefficiencies on the ground will not go away. But it doesn’t matter for his volume. The Broncos will feed Gordon with touches, making Gordon a safe, although low-upside play in 2020. I would love to have Gordon as my RB2 after taking an RB1 and WR1 in the first two rounds. 

The only concern is that Gordon gets hurt again, although he’s never missed a majority of any season. Outside of injury, Gordon has almost no chance of completely busting in 2020. Gordon comes in as my RB15 and 31st overall player. 

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

Previous Redraft Journey Articles: Austin Ekeler, Allen Robinson