In this two-part article, I’m taking a look at the 10 best draft values from the 2019 redraft season. I started by choosing five players from the top 50 in ADP in part one, found here, and now I’ll pick five players from the rest of the draft in part two.
As in part one, I will be using Yahoo’s final half PPR ADP. In addition to revisiting how these players performed in 2019, I will also briefly touch on what I expect going forward into 2020.
I’ll limit eligible players to the top 150 and might examine the best waiver wire wonders in a future piece.
Cooper Kupp: ADP: 65, WR24, finished as WR4
Kupp was selected far behind fellow Rams’ wide receivers Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods in 2019 redraft formats, with both of his teammates having an ADP of about 40, as compared to Kupp’s 65th overall ADP.
In the preseason, I agreed with the majority that Kupp would struggle early in the season coming off his ACL tear in 2018 and that the other two receivers would outperform him. I also thought that the Rams offense would regress and would no longer be able to support three top receivers in 2019.
While I was correct about the regression, it was instead Brandin Cooks that was phased out of the offense, not Kupp. Kupp played all 16 games, recording 94 receptions on 134 targets for 1161 yards and 10 touchdowns.
However, looking forward to 2020, Kupp is a risky target. He finished with six or more targets in every game from weeks 1-8, starting as a rock-solid WR1 for the first half of the season. After the Rams’ Week 9 bye though, Kupp had six targets or fewer in six of the final eight games and was held below 50 receiving yards in six of the eight contests.
The emergence of tight end Tyler Higbee is likely the leading cause for Kupp’s decline in usage, but either way, Kupp will not be a WR1 for me in 2020 drafts. I’ll plan to treat him as a WR2 with WR1 upside if he can rediscover his form from the first half of 2019.
Lamar Jackson: ADP: 98.4, QB13, finished as QB1
There is probably no better value from the 2019 draft season than Lamar Jackson. He was a league-winner in every sense of the word, going from a ninth-round ADP to finishing as the QB1 by a wide margin.
Despite playing only 15 games, Lamar outscored the QB2, Dak Prescott, by 73.5 points in four-point touchdown scoring. His points per game average was 28.2, more than six points higher than the next highest quarterback, Deshaun Watson. Jackson essentially broke the quarterback position in 2019, but things will change going into 2020. I expect Jackson to be a first-round selection in 2020 redraft formats based on his rushing floor and overall upside. At that price, I will likely altogether avoid Jackson, as the equity of giving up an RB1 or WR1 to have Jackson on my team will not be worth it.
Also, like Jackson in 2019 and Mahomes in 2018, a quarterback can only be a league-winner if they are drafted late in the draft. Therefore, I will likely try to find that guy in 2020 and bypass Jackson.
Austin Ekeler: ADP: 100.3, RB34, finished as RB6
During draft season, Chargers’ starting running back Melvin Gordon was holding out, and Austin Ekeler came into the season as the starter, splitting time with Justin Jackson.
Despite the added opportunity, Ekeler was still only drafted as the RB34, an insane value. I felt that Ekeler should have been drafted on the border of the RB2/3 range, between RB20 and RB25. However, even at that price, Ekeler crushed it in 2019, finishing as a strong RB6. Ekeler caught 108 balls for 993 yards and eight receiving touchdowns, a respectable receiving line in its own right. He also added 132 carries for 557 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Considering that Ekeler was drafted in the ninth round, he won leagues for many fantasy owners in 2019.
Turning to 2020, the Chargers’ running back situation is in flux. Ekeler is a restricted free agent, and Gordon is an unrestricted free agent. I assume that Ekeler will return to the Chargers, and Gordon will likely depart the team. I expect that Ekeler will once again be undervalued in 2020 and will not be drafted as a consensus RB1. Therefore, I believe that Ekeler will be a strong value in 2020 drafts as well.
Mark Andrews: ADP: 116.6, TE14, finished as TE4
For the final two draft values, I will turn to a pair of tight ends, both of whom drastically outperformed their draft prices in 2019.
Starting with Mark Andrews, he was drafted as the TE14 in redraft formats in 2019. Andrews was the lead target for the Ravens’ high-powered offense, scoring 10 receiving touchdowns to go with 64 catches for 852 yards. Considering that Andrews found success in a limited role in his 2018 rookie year, it should have been no surprise that he fully broke out in 2019. With Andrews, fantasy owners essentially received a high-end TE1 at bare minimum cost.
Going into 2020, I still think that Andrews will be valued below the top tier of tight ends and will not be put in that group by most drafters. I believe that Andrews belongs as a top tight end, and I would be completely comfortable using a high draft pick on him in 2020.
Darren Waller: ADP: 120.4, TE16, finished as TE3
Similar to Andrews, Waller was drafted in the later rounds and finished as a high-end TE1. However, unlike Andrews, Waller mostly came out of nowhere. Waller only had 18 career receptions coming into 2019 and less than 200 receiving yards. He exploded in 2019, though, catching 90 balls on 117 targets for 1145 yards and three receiving touchdowns.
Waller was the alpha target for the Raiders, who had a massive target vacuum after the early-season departure of star receiver Antonio Brown. The Raiders’ other receiving options, mostly Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow, were in and out of the lineup, further increasing Waller’s volume.
In contrast to Andrews, I do not believe that Waller will be a good value in 2020. One-year wonders happen at the tight end position all the time, and the Raiders will address their pass-catchers in free agency or the 2020 draft or both. There is simply no way that Waller will get the same volume in 2020, but he will probably be valued as a top-5 tight end due to his great numbers. He will likely make my list of the biggest fades for 2020 drafts.
On a separate note about general strategy, both the rise of Andrews and the emergence of Waller has made me somewhat reconsider my overall approach to the tight end position.
In the past, my goal was to find a single mid-tier tight end like O.J. Howard or Evan Engram and hope that they join the high-end ranks. However, now I will probably change to a totally different way of drafting tight ends. I’ll either draft a high-end guy like Kittle or Kelce, or I’ll stick to taking a shot or two at the end of the draft on a free tight end with upside. This way, I’ll either have a yearlong starter or I’ll have saved equity by waiting on a volatile and streamable position.
The important lesson is to always be flexible and be willing to change your strategy from year to year. That’s the best way to improve your redraft game.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I’d love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out anytime! I’ve been taking fantasy questions lately and trying to help out with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
