While watching the film it is easy to see the speed and burst that Ruggs has, but it is another thing to also hear the announcers say “the fastest man on the field” and “the fastest guy on the Alabama team.” This big-play-potential wide receiver has decided to forgo his senior season at Alabama and make a name for himself in the big leagues. Let’s dive into it.
Statistical Breakdown
Along the same lines as Hamler, Ruggs never really had a “dominant” season for the Crimson Tide. Some may say that he had tons of talent around him, that it would be impossible to truly post dominant stats. I used to think that as well. But after viewing the season that Devonta Smith (68-1256-14) and Ja’Marr Chase (75-1559-18) had, it only proved to me that Ruggs does not have what it takes to be an alpha wide receiver in the NFL. By no means does that mean he will not be able to produce solid fantasy return for your dynasty/devy team, but I think we need to lower him on our boards a bit. For the analytics people, this prospect, if he did not play for Alabama, would not even get considered elite due to the underwhelming numbers in the dominator rating, breakout age, and target market share. In the 2018 season, Ruggs posted a 15.27% dominator rating and held an 18.75% team target market share. If you are not familiar with the general range for those numbers, those percentages are much lower than average. Fast forward to this season, and expectations for Ruggs were high to improve on those numbers and raise his draft stock, but he didn’t. Ruggs held a 16.77% target market share and a 16.77% dominator rating which gives him a breakout age (the first point where a wide receiver is to hold a dominator rating of 20%) of TBD. Not breaking out is alarming for any receiver, but when that player played on the Crimson Tide for three years, those alarms become something closer to sirens.
Film Breakdown
I watched multiple games to try and find what Ruggs was able to do consistently against the good and not-so-good teams. One trait stood out to me across all of the film. I did not dive into all of the prospects yet, but from what I have watched in film and from the games this season I am assured that Ruggs is the best run after catch wide receiver in the class. In the first couple of plays in the clip above, it is very easy to see his ability to take a simple play and use his speed and talent to turn it into something big. I never like to deem a player one dimensional, but sort of like my last prospect write up on KJ Hamler, scouts and dynasty players need to see more to fully buy into the tools that Ruggs can bring to the NFL other than RAC and YAC ability.
Player Comparison
I usually won’t spend a ton of time trying to compare players because no two players are the same, but when watching Ruggs one player just kept sticking into the back of my mind and that was JuJu Smith-Schuster.
I pulled this video from Juju’s 2016 season and used the first couple of clips to really compare the RAC and YAC abilities that both of these players present. Along the same lines as Juju, Ruggs will need time to develop, but in the right landing spot, Ruggs can easily step into a fantasy-relevant role in year one. RAC and big-play potential are skills you can not learn, so I am excited to see how Ruggs develops throughout the draft process.
Thank you for reading my breakdown on this player. You can find me on twitter @kacer_lukas and feel free to reach out with any questions or players you want me to write about next. There is no offseason so keep grinding guys!
