Every week this series will attempt to bring clarity to the goings-on, both on and off the field within each NFL Division so that dynasty owners can make championship level decisions based on our actionable information. Our writers will be digging through data and film for inference on coach/front office decision making so that they can keep you equipped with the “nuggets” you need to succeed.
This will be the final edition of the 2019 AFC East Divisional Nuggets. This week will be a season-end review of the most fantasy-relevant players. I hope you all enjoyed reading these as much as I enjoyed putting them together. Good luck with all your offseason endeavors.
New England Patriots
Tom Brady (QB)
Tom Brady and the Patriots played on wildcard weekend for the first time since 2009. In a full decade. Let that sink in. The reason they’re forced to play the Titans this Saturday is that they couldn’t fend off the miserable Dolphins. The star quarterback usually comes through in the clutch but Brady was NOT part of the solution on Sunday. He was 16 for 29 for 221, two touchdowns, and a pick-six. The pick-six came off what Brady even admitted was an awful pass. Brady ironically ended the playoff game the same way, a pick-six.
Dynasty note: This could very well be the end of Brady’s career but I doubt it after how the loss to the Titans ended. It’s hard to believe he would go out on such a down year so it’s more likely he sticks around one more year in hopes the Patriots can reload offensive weapons and compete for another Super Bowl. Brady’s “decline” this year is concerning but any reasonable NFL fan can tell much of the poor play is due to lack of talent around him. Dynasty owners should sell Brady for whatever you can as soon as possible. Never know what his plans are post playoffs.
Sony Michel (RB)
Michel ended the season on a relatively positive note. He finished with 18 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins in Week 17. He’s averaged over four yards a carry each of the last three weeks and five of the last six games. Michel doesn’t have the burst or breakaway speed like his former teammate Nick Chubb, but he’s proven to be a reliable workhorse. A running back you can hand the ball to 20 times a game, pump out yards, and eat up the clock. The Patriots need to address their run protection. We know exactly what he’s capable of behind a competent offensive line.
Dynasty note: Sony’s just 24 years old and has been healthy all year after an injury-riddled rookie season. There was a fair amount of concern heading into the season that he couldn’t hold up all year but his ability to sustain 247 carries without issue has proven otherwise. I’d like to sell for a high second-round pick but I’d hold otherwise.
James White (RB)
Judging James White by the current state of the Patriots offense simply wouldn’t be fair. They are sputtering to put it nicely. Still, White found the endzone in the final game of the regular season to give his team the lead before the defense coughed it up. He caught all three targets for 33 yards and ran the ball twice for just four yards. White was Brady’s go-to target when the game was on the line and that’s why he’s a valuable fantasy asset.
Dynasty note: Even in a down season White caught 75.8% of the targets thrown his way and scored six total touchdowns. He finished as the RB18 on the season and was Brady’s go-to target when the game was on the line and that’s why he’s a valuable fantasy asset.
Julian Edelman (WR)
Edelman struggled in the regular-season finale and largely due to injuries. He caught just three of seven targets for 26 yards. He’s been dealing with a chest/rib injury all year and most recently he’s been hampered by a knee issue. There are real questions about his sustainability going forward.
Dynasty note: Jules finished the year as the WR7 at 33 years old. Pretty damn impressive if you think about it. He caught 100 receptions for 1,117 yards and six touchdowns. I would be trying to move Edelman for whatever you can get. He’s coming off a great year so this may be your last chance to cash in for some solid rookie picks.
Mohamed Sanu (WR)
I said a lot of what I needed to say about Sanu in the last edition of the AFC East Divisional Nuggets, but Week 17 only solidified what we already knew. This was a bad trade and Sanu likely won’t figure it out until next year. The real question is: “Will Brady be here for it?” Sanu caught three of five targets for 35 yards against a terrible Dolphins defense.
Dynasty note: Dynasty owners must be in shambles. What many thought would be a match made in heaven has turned into a nightmare. There’s no value and the future outlook for a “decent” 30-year-old possession receiver is not bright. Hold out hope, but I wouldn’t hold your breath.
Rookie Review
N’Keal Harry (WR)
The rookie first-round pick is finally making an impact on the field. He’s improved over the course of the season, but I’m sure not nearly as much as most would like. There are some encouraging signs though. He’s played at least 50% of the offensive snaps over the last three weeks. He’s also done more in the passing game each week. Harry caught three of seven targets for 29 yards in his best performance yet. It may not sound like much but seven of his 12 catches on the season have gone for first downs. So, when he touches the ball he is making positive plays, something Brady will remember.
Dynasty note: Harry is giving Brady and Belichick the confidence needed to be successful in the playoffs. Each week they seem to trust him with more. It should also be noted that he’s had multiple touchdowns called back that should have been scoring plays. There is a lot to be excited about after a very concerning start.
Miami Dolphins
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB)
I told you to ride Fitzmagic to the playoffs and he sure came through for your fantasy team. Well, he continued his incredible run and came through for Dolphin fans in Week 17. He led the Dolphins to the most unlikely victory and upset the Patriots to remove them as the second seed in the playoffs. He will be a legend in Miami for years to come. Fear the beard, right? He threw for 320 yards on the day and a touchdown on the winning drive. He did all this without affecting the order of next year’s draft picks as well, the cherry on top for Miami fans.
Dynasty note: Fitzpatrick may have just played his way into another contract. Miami seems like the most likely suitor as he’s already under contract for next year. It could be fun to watch considering his comradery with the current roster. He’s clearly connected with the receivers and he would be the perfect stop-gap quarterback to hold down the fort for a year. I have no doubt another team would offer him a deal if he doesn’t remain with the Dolphins. Fitzmagic keeps his fantasy value alive for the time being and this may be your best opportunity to sell for some future picks.
DeVante Parker (WR)
Eight catches on 11 targets for 137 yards against the league’s top cornerback, Stephon Gilmore? There isn’t enough that can be said about Parker’s growth this year. He has 72 catches for 1202 yards and nine touchdowns to finish the season. He never had more than four touchdowns in a single season in the four years prior. I said it earlier this year and will say it again. It’s actually simple. Parker needs a quarterback who is willing to throw it downfield and trust him. Tannehill couldn’t really do that and Fitzpatrick is willing to take the beating behind a terrible offensive line. Parker has received at least 10 targets in six of the last eight games and his performance against Gilmore was stunning.
Dynasty note: Parkers stock just went WAY up. He received a four year $30.5 Million deal from Miami a few weeks ago due to his impressive production this year. As much as I would love to go out and buy him, his price is too high. I would actually be looking to sell him because his ceiling is sort of capped by the fact that a rookie quarterback will be coming in the next year or two.
Mike Gesicki (TE)
Gesicki also finished his year on a high note. He caught four of seven targets for 34 yards and the game-winning touchdown. Another impressive outing against one of the best passing defenses in the league. He finished the season with 51 receptions for 570 yards and five touchdowns. He’s the TE12 in 2019.
Dynasty note: Finishing the year as TE12 is a major turn-around for a guy many people thought was a bust. It could have been Adam Gase or a hundred other reasons why he wasn’t successful in his rookie year, but maybe we just needed to be patient. We know it can take three years for a tight end to really breakout. I think we found out this year that Gesicki is the real deal.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen (QB)
Josh Allen ends the season as your fantasy QB6 but he only averaged 18.6 FPPG. That’s only significant because you can find quarterbacks later in your drafts who could produce more this year. The good news is he threw for 1,000 more yards than his rookie year and doubled his touchdowns from 10 to 20 this year. He also decreased his interception percentage from 3.8 to 2.0. Allen is only in his second year and has plenty of room for improvement.
Dynasty note: I think the entire community expects Josh Allen to make a significant jump next year. He will have two full offseasons with guys like Cole Beasley, John Brown, and Devin Singletary to really hone in their chemistry. His rushing success in his first two seasons in the NFL is impressive and provides a great floor for a fantasy quarterback. He rushed for nine touchdowns this year, one more than in his rookie season. Allen is a young star in the making.
John Brown (WR)
Brown finished the year as the WR 20. He didn’t win you many games but was as consistent a fantasy player as you could find. Brown had just two games with less than 10 fantasy points. He also became much more reliable this year. He increased his catch rate to over 70% for the first time in his six-year career.
Dynasty note: Brown had a fantastic season but he’s 29 years old. He’s on a three-year contract with Buffalo so there is some security in knowing he and Josh Allen have a good connection. He could be a good additional piece to a trade deal that could push it over the top for your trade partner. Otherwise, I would hold because it’s not likely you get the value needed to get a deal done.
Cole Beasley (WR)
Beasley ended the season as the WR34 but there were games like in Week 13 in which he finished as the WR7. He ended up being Josh Allen’s safety blanket, and like John Brown, he received a multi-year deal and will be able to build on his connection with the young quarterback.
Dynasty note: Beasley is another aging receiver at 30 years old but that may not matter for many of you trying to win a championship next year. He has plenty of value considering the Bills aren’t going to replace him. He was targeted 106 times in his first year in Buffalo. Look for another productive season from the slot receiver next year.
Rookie Review
Devin Singletary (RB)
Singletary had a great season, especially for only starting eight games. He received 151 carries for 775 yards and two touchdowns and 29 receptions for 194 yards and two receiving touchdowns on the year.
Dynasty note: The rookie had a really impressive season after missing a good portion of the season with a hamstring injury. It looked like his season was lost but he pushed through and averaged 5.1 yards per attempt. Singletary should be the Bills lead back without question in 2020.
Dawson Knox (TE)
One thing we know about Knox is that he’s a big-play threat. He set up a would-be touchdown with a 33-yard reception against the Patriots in Week 16. Knox averaged 13.9 yards per reception and 25.9 yards per game this year.
Dynasty note: He finished his rookie year with 28 catches for 388 yards and two touchdowns. Dynasty owners should be encouraged by the early success of the rookie tight end. These guys usually take a couple of years to develop but his route running and pass-catching skills far exceed expectations.
New York Jets
Sam Darnold (QB)
Darnold’s last game of the year was like many others this season, riddled with turnovers. You would be disappointed looking at his stat line this year but he actually improved since his rookie season. He threw for more touchdowns and fewer interceptions this year but he couldn’t overcome the slew of problems the Jets faced this year. Whether it was poor coaching or injuries, it was just too much.
Dynasty note: Darnold spent the first half of the season sitting on the sideline due to mononucleosis and by the time he came back the season was basically lost. There is hope the team will improve and come together but head coach Adam Gase doesn’t seem to have a good grip on the team. Darnold is talented but he still has a lot to overcome.
Le’Veon Bell (RB)
Bell finished the season as the RB16, not what fantasy owners who drafted him in the first round expected. The bigger issue now is that Adam Gase has no love for Le’Veon. When asked if Bell would be back he said “he’s under contract for three more years”, not a very supportive response (watch it here).
Dynasty note: I think it’s clear that Bell’s time in New York will come to an end as soon as possible. He doesn’t seem to be happy to be there and Gase doesn’t seem to happy to have him. He performed fairly well in a bad situation this year, so the talent is still there, and he’s relatively young. The Jets offense can’t get much worse so I would be looking to buy Bell at a discount this offseason hoping he finds a better home in a year or two.
Robby Anderson (WR)
Anderson may have played his final game with the Jets. He’s a free agent this offseason and there are plenty of teams looking for a downfield threat. He didn’t do much in Week 17 to show himself off, but a team like the Packers may be interested. He only caught three of seven targets for 18 yards in the season finale.
Dynasty note: Anderson gave us a glimpse of what he could do toward the end of the season but he isn’t much more than a boom/bust fantasy player. I don’t think he has much value to trade right now but that could all change depending on where he lands.
Jamison Crowder (WR)
Crowder caught fire in the second half of the season and continued that streak into Week 17. He caught eight of 10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. He’s a great asset in PPR leagues. Crowder received a three year $28.5 Million contract from the Jets this year so he is locked in as Darnold’s slot receiver.
Dynasty note: Crowder is a young receiver on a team that will need to pass the ball a ton next year. He’s Darnold’s safety blanket and has a secure position on the team. He has a high floor but a lower ceiling. I like to use players like this as add ons in trade deals that need that extra piece to get a deal done.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss, you can find me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF
