PAST PRODUCTION
Brandon Aiyuk began his collegiate football career at Sierra College, a community college in California. After a strong sophomore season, Aiyuk transferred to Arizona State. As a junior, Aiyuk underwhelmed alongside future first-round pick N’Keal Harry. But he blew up as a senior, recording a 40.6% dominator rating (81st percentile) with 65 receptions for 1,192 yards and eight TDs. Aiyuk was also incredibly dynamic at Arizona State, contributing on special teams as both a kick and punt returner.
Brandon Aiyuk was selected by the San Francisco 49ers with the 25th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Aiyuk appeared in twelve games as a rookie and finished the season with 60 receptions for 748 yards and 5 TDs. He landed at WR18 in PPG at 15.4–more than Robert Woods, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Moore. Aiyuk also flashed his high ceiling with an incredible six-game stretch from Weeks 7 to 15 during which he racked up 45 receptions for 568 yards and 4 TDs, averaging over 20 PPR points per game.
Aiyuk’s production is even more impressive when you factor in poor quarterback play from Jimmy Garoppolo, C.J. Beathard, and Nick Mullens. According to Playerprofiler.com, Aiyuk’s catchable target rate of 72.2% ranked 83rd among all receivers, and his target quality rating, which combines catchable targets with target depth, was 93rd.
2021 OUTLOOK
Despite his strong rookie campaign, there is some debate regarding Brandon Aiyuk’s value in 2021 and beyond. Of course, now that the 49ers hold the 3rd overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, some of the uncertainty is resolved. San Francisco will select Justin Fields, or Mac Jones, or Trey Lance and send Jimmy Handsome packing.
Many of Aiyuk’s detractors insist that the 49ers’ offense has “too many mouths to feed” and that Aiyuk simply benefited from a lack of target competition during his rookie season. However, the “too many mouths to feed,” trope is mostly a fallacy. The truth is that good players earn targets. As they say, the cream rises to the top. Look at the 2018 Minnesota Vikings. Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs were by far the best playmakers on that offense, and, as a result, they commanded 302 targets between them–a 51% combined target share. Furthermore, good players make an offense better. If Deebo Samuel and George Kittle had stayed healthy, they certainly would have commanded targets. But their presence on the field would have also led to more first downs, more pass attempts, and more TDs.
To project Brandon Aiyuk’s 2021 season, we have to look at the offense as a whole. As I said before, the presence of a healthy George Kittle and Deebo Samuel should improve offensive efficiency. But with a rookie quarterback coming in and a healthier defense potentially creating more positive game scripts, let’s assume the total pass attempts land around 550, nearly identical to the 2020 season. With the departure of Kendrick Bourne, Jordan Reed, and others, the 49ers’ offense has close to 190 vacated targets. The depth chart is incredibly shallow, so it’s fair to assume that most of those targets will go to Kittle, Aiyuk, and Samuel. With a 23.5% target share–just a slight uptick from his rookie season–Aiyuk would see 125 targets. Give Kittle and Samuel 250 to share, and that still leaves 175 for the running backs, Richie James, etc.
With 120-130 targets, and potentially more efficient quarterback play, Brandon Aiyuk could pick up right where he left off in 2020. He belongs firmly in the WR2 conversation for 2021 with low-end WR1 upside if the new quarterback can hit the ground running.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
Brandon Aiyuk is currently undervalued in dynasty formats, most likely due to the success of fellow 2020 rookies Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Tee Higgins. However, as we’ve discussed, Aiyuk’s rookie season was very impressive in its own right. He just turned 23 years old, and he’ll be linked to Kyle Shanahan and a highly-drafted rookie quarterback for the next several seasons. I believe Aiyuk should be valued in the WR15-20 range, and I’m looking to acquire him wherever I can this offseason.
Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.
Did you enjoy this article and want more Dynasty, Devy, IDP, and Redraft content? Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.
