In devy leagues, we are all looking for not only the generational talents at the collegiate level that will be NFL stars when they go pro, but we are also looking for the hidden gems that go under the radar but will be league winners someday. While the generational talents like Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Ja’Marr Chase are all well known in the fantasy community this article will try to determine breakout players who can be attained in future devy drafts based on their on-field play and analytical profiles.
This has been a vastly different type of season due to COVID-19 as it has forced most teams into conference-only scheduling and each conference starting at a different point. Some conferences decided to cancel their seasons, these conferences then scrambled back into Fall action after seeing the success of college football elsewhere. Each week we have highlighted a breakout player of the week, and we finally have a large enough sample size to track our previous breakout players’ success.
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE WEEK HEAT CHECK
Week 0 – Grant Wells, QB, Marshall
Our hands were a bit tied this week, with only nine games on the slate. However, the 6’2” redshirt freshman quarterback Grant Wells played amazingly in his 2020 debut. Wells has since led the Thundering Herd to a 7-0 record in the quinquagenarian season from their tragic plane crash. Completing just over 65% of his passes in these six games, Wells also has thrown for 1,674 yards and 16 TDs versus only four interceptions. As we reported after his first game, Wells has decent speed having run a 4.51-second 40-yard dash, with that speed Wells has been able to add 155 yards and two TDs on the ground. Wells’ 1,674 passing yards as well as his 162.2 passer rating are second-best in the CUSA. Wells also leads the CUSA in completion percentage as well as passing TDs. Wells is not going to be drafted in the deepest of devy leagues, but a strong finish to this season as well as continued success next year could get his name some traction among NFL scouts.
Week 1 – Spencer Rattler, QB, Oklahoma
Rattler’s first season as the Oklahoma starting quarterback has been a rollercoaster of a ride. He looked unstoppable in his debut game, however looked every part the inexperienced redshirt freshman thereafter. Rattler has played well in the following four games maintaining a 67% completion percentage on the season. Rattler’s 2,018 yards are fourth-most among Power Five quarterbacks and is third-most in touchdowns with 18. Rattler is very much in play for the 2022 QB1 and first-overall pick in Superflex leagues.
Week 2 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Georgia Tech
Jahmyr Gibbs broke out in his first active game for Georgia Tech, after which I compared his skill set to Alvin Kamara. At that point in the early season, I was ready to proclaim Gibbs as the top running back in the 2023 class, however, due to the amazing talent throughout the class, it’s going to be a rotating door until we get closer to the 2023 NFL Draft. Gibbs has continued to produce on the ground as well as an effective receiver. On the ground, Gibbs has 389 yards and two touchdowns to go along with twenty catches for 255 yards and three TDs through the air. Jahmyr Gibbs has now accounted for 23% of Georgia Tech’s total yards from scrimmage.
Week 3 – I highlighted a number of mini breakouts
We will keep an eye out going forward. The most notable of which is Oklahoma’s receiver Marvin Mims who has continued to be counted on as one of Rattler’s main targets in clutch situations. Also, Kansas State’s true freshman running back Deuce Vaughn has been one of the best pass-catchers in college football this season.
Week 4 – John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
The Alabama Crimson Tide had the week off to prepare for a matchup with LSU next weekend. Metchie has the eleventh most receiving yards among Power Five receivers with 517. Metchie provides a deep-threat for Mac Jones while Devonta Smith predominantly works the intermediate routes. Among Power Five receivers with over 20 receptions, only Jaylen Waddle has a higher yards per catch average than Metchie’s 21.5. With Rondale Moore’s absence from Purdue, David Bell has separated as the 2022 WR1, however, Metchie can be debated as the WR2 in that class. In terms of advanced metrics, Metchie now has a 21% dominator rating to go with 2.68 yards per team pass attempt.
Week 5 – Cartavious “Tank” Bigsby, RB, Auburn
Auburn’s 18-year old true freshman running back has emerged as the 2023 RB1 since Week 5 and has maintained that position however it’s an unbelievable deep and talented class. Bigsby’s hard running style and his refusal to be tackled by a single defender have led to 503 rushing yards and five TDs. He has also proved that he’s a capable receiver out of the backfield with 11 catches for 84 yards. Coming off Auburn’s bye week Bigsby will have two games before taking on the daunted Alabama defense. Bigsby has now made up 24% of Auburn’s total yards from scrimmage.
Week 6 – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The 6’3” and 232 lbs. sophomore receiver is having an incredibly impressive season. Burks was held in check by the strong Florida defense this week having only a three-catch and 47-yard game. That brings Burks to 34 catches for 508 yards and five TDs on the season. In terms of advanced metrics, Burks has a 30% dominator rating to go with 2.45 yards per team pass attempt.
Week 7 – Graham Mertz, QB, Wisconsin
After Mertz’s breakout performance throwing 21 times for 248 yards and five TDs, he had tested positive for COVID-19. Wisconsin came back this week after their multiple-week postponement as Mertz led the Badgers past Michigan. This was much more of a game managing role for Mertz as he completed just over half of his pass attempts for 127 yards and two TDs. On the season, Mertz now is completing 77% of his passes and averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. Mertz has accumulated 448 yards and seven TDs in his two games as starting quarterback.
Week 8 – DJ Uiagalelei QB, Clemson
Uiagalelei faced many of the same issues with fourth-ranked Notre Dame as he did with BC in terms of his defense allowing the opponent to get out to a multiple score lead early on. After leading Clemson back into the game for the second straight week, he fought them to a second overtime before Notre Dame finally came away victorious. Uiagalelei had another efficient week completing over 65% of his passes for 439 yards and two TDs. He also showed his strength with another rushing touchdown. We expect Clemson’s superstar Trevor Lawrence to be back for their next game, however, in his two-game sample size, Uiagalalei has distanced himself as the 2023 QB1 over Bryce Young.
Week 9 – Rakim Jarrett, WR, Maryland
The 6’0” and 205 lbs. five-star wide receiver shocked the college football scouting complex when he chose to play at Maryland as opposed to LSU among 26 other prestigious programs. Jarrett was rated as the fourth-best receiver in his class and the top-overall player from Washington D.C. He reportedly ran a 4.4-second 40-yard dash at The Opening in D.C. Jarrett is a tantalizing combination of speed, quickness and possesses elite-level route running despite his youth. Jarrett became the first true freshman to score two-or-more TDs to go along with over 100 receiving yards since Stefon Diggs. Jarrett had a true breakout game against Penn State on a five-catch game, those catches went for 144 yards and two TDs and Jarrett emerged as Taulia Tagovialoa’s most dangerous pass catcher. After his great performance in Maryland’s third-game, Jarrett now has a dominator rating of 30% and to go with an impressive 2.37 yards per team pass attempt.
This week was ravaged by postponements across all college football as fifteen games had to be either postponed or canceled. In line with many of the games not being played, programs have been leaning on their upperclassmen for production. With most teams leaning on their experienced players this week we head to the MAC for a surprising breakout, though this week may deserve an asterisk in terms of short-term devy impact. From the MAC our breakout player of the week is Terion Stewart.
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE WEEK – TERION STEWART, RB, BOWLING GREEN.
THE PROSPECT
Terion Stewart is a true freshman running back for the Bowling Green Eagles. Stewart stands 5’9” and 216 lbs. and was a three-star prospect from Sandusky, Ohio. Stewart is not a player that we were expecting big things this year from, as he was rated outside the top 2,000 prospects in the 2020 class, and as the 144th running back prospect overall. Stewart came into the game and was listed as the Eagles’ third running back on the depth chart
THE ANALYSIS
Kent State had less trouble with Bowling Green than Michael Jordan had with Gary ‘The Glove’ Payton in the 1997 NBA Finals. Kent State handily built a 38-10 lead by halftime in the second week of ‘MACtion’. With no answers, in the second half Bowling Green turned to their true freshman to provide a spark to the offense. Stewart ran the ball 14 times in the second half and went off for 162 yards and two scores including breaking off a 69-yard touchdown run. Stewart made up 45% of the Eagles total offensive yardage to go along with two out of their three offensive TDs. All of these together make up a dominator rating for Stewart in his one-game sample size of 55%, this will obviously smooth out over time, but it will be very exciting to watch this young freshman try to build an NFL caliber resume over the next three-plus years.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
We will continue to keep our eyes on these young future NFL stars and identify them as soon as they break out to keep you ready for your devy drafts as well as making sound trades on an early breakout before the rest of your league catches up.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
