We’ve had some bumps along the way but we have officially made it to the midpoint of the 2020 NFL season! For those of you checking us out for the first time, I’m @DFF_Biscuits. My role at Dynasty Football Factory is to embrace our inner degenerate by covering all things sportsbook related.
Earlier in the season, I wrote a piece on the projected win totals for both the AFC and NFC teams. With Week 8 behind us, I wanted to take some time to review our season-long win total bets and offer some opinions on where I believe each team is headed moving forward. This article will focus on the NFC teams, while a separate article will cover the AFC teams.
While most books do not have updated win total bets, there are still plenty of season-long options to take including division winner, conference winner, and whether a team will make the playoffs. Hopefully, this article can give you some guidance on making these mid-season bets!
Arizona Cardinals
The Pick: Over 7 Wins
Current Record: 5-2
The Cardinals play in one of the toughest divisions in football, but they only need two more wins to clear this meager win total. They sit at third in the NFC, but would currently be the fifth seed due to Russel Wilson’s incredible season. Still, they are only one game behind their divisional rivals and already beat them once this year. At +500, they are not a bad pick at all to win the NFC West.
Atlanta Falcons
The Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
Current Record: 2-6
Atlanta blowing leads has become so ingrained in our culture it has now become a political meme. What a time to be alive. The Falcons “Falcon’ed” their way to a top draft pick and will look to rebuild on a lost season.
Carolina Panthers
The Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
Current Record: 3-5
Matt Rhule has done some impressive things with one of the younger rosters in the NFL, particularly on the defense. With remaining matchups against the Vikings, Lions, and Washington, this team could just barely clear their win total. It’s unfortunate for our pick, but a pretty decent start for the new coach.
Chicago Bears
The Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
Current Record: 5-3
No team has frustrated me more this season than the Bears. This is a team that should be 2-5 or even 1-6. But, like they say, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. The Bears have very winnable matchups against the Vikings twice, the Lions, the Texans, and the Jaguars coming up so this is a team that could very well make the postseason before being bounced immediately by a team that’s actually worth anything.
Can you tell I’m bitter?
Dallas Cowboys
The Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
Current Record: 2-6
Well. At least the Cowboys know what they have to do this offseason. Pay the man.
Detroit Lions
The Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
Current Record: 3-4
I predicted that the Lions would go 8-8, and their remaining schedule is friendly enough to potentially allow that. Their next five games (Vikings, Washington, Panthers, Texans, and Bears) are all winnable and they close the season out with a nice home matchup against Minnesota. Expect them to drop a few because they’re the Lions, but over 6.5 is looking pretty decent!
Green Bay Packers
The Pick: Under 8.5 Wins
Current Record: 5-2
Somehow, amidst all the dysfunction, speculation, and outright mismanagement of the team, Aaron Rodgers has managed to stay afloat atop a competitive NFC and lead the Packers to a 5-2 record. As of this writing, they will play the 49ers on Thursday Night Football and likely go to 6-2. Shockingly, they are only -335 to win the NFC North which I believe is a great bet to take.
Los Angeles Rams
The Pick: Under 8 Wins
Current Record: 5-3
The Rams cruised through the early part of their schedule, but face a tough test in the weeks ahead. They play the Seahawks and Cardinals twice each, as well as a tough Buccaneers team. Games against the banged-up 49ers, Jets, and Patriots should lead to a push, but anything more than that is a gift.
Minnesota Vikings
The Pick: Under 9 Wins
Current Record: 2-5
Shockingly, it turns out you cannot gut your defense and expect to remain competitive year after year. While Dalvin Cook and the rest of the offense are humming along, the Vikings’ defense is an absolute sieve allowing 411.7 yards of offense per game. The Vikings must use their draft capital to infuse some talent on that side of the ball for 2021.
New Orleans Saints
The Pick: Over 10.5 Wins
Current Record: 5-2
Drew Brees was off to a very rough start, but has really shown some promise in the last few weeks despite losing weapon after weapon. Their only true remaining tests this season are the Buccaneers and Chiefs, while the rest of their schedule is a relative cakewalk. I’m expecting an 11-5 finish, an NFC South crown, and a decent shot at winning the NFC.
New York Giants
The Pick: Under 6 Wins
Current Record: 1-7
I wanted to believe in Daniel Jones, I really did. But it’s time to admit he’s not the answer. The Giants are easily the worst team in the NFC. Joe Judge should look to Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields to rebuild this team from the ground up in 2021.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Pick: Under 9 Wins
Current Record: 3-4-1
The Eagles have been so banged up from the start that this was never going to be a pretty season. They still have the best odds to win the NFC East but this team is struggling. I would much rather take my money and place it on a team with better odds such as Washington (+375).
San Francisco 49ers
The Pick: Over 10.5
Current Record: 4-4
Speaking of teams that can’t catch a break, the 49ers are gutted due to injuries. Their division is too competitive and their remaining schedule too tough to make any sort of realistic postseason run. Sorry 49ers fans, that is some terrible luck.
Seattle Seahawks
The Pick: Over 9.5 Wins
Current Record: 6-1
The Seahawks have finished with 10 or more wins in seven out of the last eight seasons. Behind Russel Wilson’s magic, they’re going to do it again this season. However, their defense is a liability that currently gives up the most yards per game in the league. That won’t cut it in a brutal NFC race, so I cannot see the Seahawks representing the NFC in the Superbowl this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Pick: Over 9.5 Wins
Current Record: 6-1
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is the current favorite to win the NFC and for good reason. They boast a strong offense coupled with one of the stingiest defenses in the league. I think the Saints would still be my pick for NFC champion just based on the odds, but the Buccaneers are a good pick to win the division and the NFC crown.
Washington Football Team
The Pick: Over 5 Wins
Current Record: 2-5
My initial pick on Washington was due to Haskins’ emergence late last season and strong front seven. Well, at least one of those things came to fruition.
Still, they are my pick to win the NFC East based on their odds and the lack of competition around them. The only team in front of them is the 3-4-1 Eagles who they “upset” in Week One. The NFC East is a notoriously wide-open race, so you could certainly do worse than a roughly 4:1 payout!
Disagree with my picks? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive.
