Lamar Miller Redraft Reaction

I’ve done a bunch of reaction articles throughout the offseason, but they were all from a dynasty lens. At this point in the offseason, the season is in sight, so any moves have a more direct effect on 2020 redraft leagues. We know far more about each team’s depth chart, so it’s far easier to slot any new additions into a role. 

I broke down the Patriots for redraft in June, but so much has changed since then. The Patriots signed Cam Newton to replace Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. Also, we received news that Sony Michel had offseason foot surgery, leaving him in a race to be ready for the start of the season.

That’s where Lamar Miller comes into play. As he’s an older veteran running back, Miller doesn’t carry much dynasty value, but he makes a massive impact on the Patriots’ backfield in 2020. I’ll begin with Miller, and then move into how I’ve moved each other Patriots’ running back based on his signing. Let’s jump into it!

Lamar Miller

Past Production

The Dolphins drafted Miller in the fourth round of the 2012 NFL Draft with the 97th overall pick. Miller sat behind veteran Reggie Bush as a rookie, and he formed a committee with Daniel Thomas in his second year. While Miller played well in 2012 and 2013, he wasn’t on the fantasy radar.

However, starting in 2014, Miller became the Dolphins’ workhorse back. He dominated touches in the Dolphins’ backfield for two straight seasons, and he also began to gain usage in the passing game. Miller recorded 38 and 47 receptions in 2014 and 2015, finishing inside RB1 territory in both seasons.

Even though Miller played well, the Dolphins didn’t see him as a core piece of their team. Therefore, Miller departed in free agency to the Texans, who signed him to a 4-year, $26 million contract. During his time in Houston, Miller dominated backfield touches, staving off challenges from D’Onta Foreman and Alfred Blue.

From 2016-2018, Miller finished as an RB2 each season. He didn’t show the same spark or passing-game usage as his time in Miami, but he was an effective if slightly dull backfield option. Even after 2018, the Texans remained committed to Miller as their 2019 starter. The Texans had replaced Foreman with Duke Johnson, but Miller was the clear top dog in the running back room.

Unfortunately for Miller, he tore his ACL in the final preseason game, forcing him to miss the entire 2019 season. The Texans then traded for Carlos Hyde, who stepped directly into Miller’s role. Hyde had 245 carries in Miller’s stead, and I wholeheartedly believe Miller would have had that volume if he had remained healthy.

Miller’s contract expired after the 2019 season, and the Texans decided to replace him with David Johnson. Recently, though, Miller seemed fully healthy and recovered from his ACL tear, leading to interest from multiple NFL teams. After some links to the Eagles and Seahawks, Miller eventually signed with the Patriots on a 1-year contract.

2020 Outlook

While we don’t yet know the exact terms of Miller’s contract, I’m sure that he will make the Patriots Week 1 roster. Let’s remember that Miller had been useful as a starter from 2014-2018, and he slated to be a starting running back before his 2019 injury. Miller is only 29 years old, far younger than other running backs who have contributed heavily in recent years, like Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore.

Miller is fully healthy, and I think he’s the best early-down running back on the Patriots right now. Miller has shown more in the NFL than Sony Michel and far more than either Damien Harris or Rex Burkhead. Therefore, if Michel misses the beginning of the season, I lean toward Miller to lead the backfield in carries, just ahead of Harris. Miller ranks as my RB52, but I expect to change that ranking once we get more clarity on Michel’s injury situation.

Sony Michel

At this point, Michel looks like a lock to begin the 2020 season on the reserve/PUP list, which forces him to miss the opening six games. Therefore, you can take my recent sleeper article about Michel and throw it in the trash. I will not draft Michel in any redraft leagues, although I’ll wait until he’s officially placed on the PUP to move his ranking. Michel is virtually impossible to rank at this moment, and I have him as my RB50 merely as a placeholder. Proceed as if he’s off your draft board.

James White

I don’t think that Miller’s signing affects White at all. Miller is a direct replacement for Michel, and he will not take away from White’s role in the passing game. White remains an excellent zero-RB target in PPR leagues. He’s my RB33, unchanged from before this news.

Damien Harris

I think that Harris is the most affected by the Miller news. Before Miller signed, I felt that Harris could slide into Michel’s role if Michel missed the beginning of the season. That would make Harris a starting running back at an insanely cheap draft cost.

However, now, the backfield waters will be muddy whether Michel misses the start of the season or not. Harris did absolutely nothing in 2019 as a rookie, as he had only four carries and was a healthy scratch for multiple games. Knowing the Patriots’ penchant for opacity as an organization, I believe we’re not going to know who the Week 1 starter is until the first snap. 

As of now, I’m leaning toward Miller, but I rank Harris and Miller almost identically. For now, Harris is my RB53, directly behind Miller. Once Michel is officially ruled out, I will likely move both Miller and Harris up a few spots. Both players represent decent late-round dart throws, and I plan to select whoever comes cheaper since I have no idea who to pick.

Rex Burkhead

Miller’s signing relegates Burkhead to complete irrelevance. Before Miller signed, I thought that Burkhead would split early-down work with Harris if Michel began the season on the PUP. However, now, Burkhead is fourth on the depth chart, and he will have no fantasy role in 2020.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.