In my previous offseason reaction articles, I’ve looked at a variety of offseason moves and how they relate to dynasty formats. Here’s the full list of links:
Stefon Diggs trade to the Bills
Anderson signs with the Panthers
Funchess signs with the Packers
In this piece, we’re going to take a deep dive into the Kansas City wide receiver room. In 2019, the Chiefs had four relevant receivers: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson. While Travis Kelce is and has been the Chiefs’ top target for multiple seasons, Patrick Mahomes is undoubtedly able to support multiple receiving weapons.
Tyreek Hill
Hill is the clear number one receiver in Kansas City, averaging more targets, receptions, and yards per game than any other wide receiver on the team in 2019. Additionally, Hill finished as the WR9 in 2017, WR3 in 2018, and finished 10th in points per game in his 12 games in 2019. Before the 2019 season, Hill signed a 3-year, $54 million extension through 2022 with $35 million in total guarantees. While Hill is the obvious leader in the Chiefs’ WR room, each of the three other players has taken different paths to get to this point. Let’s go through them one-by-one.
Sammy Watkins
Watkins was one of the most hyped wide receiver prospects in recent memory. The Bills selected him with the fourth overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft as the first wide receiver off the board that year. In his rookie year, Watkins got off to a strong start with 65 catches for 982 yards and six touchdowns. Then, in 2015, Watkins improved on his rookie year. Even though he only played 13 games, he had 60 catches for 1,047 yards and nine touchdowns.
Unfortunately for Watkins, he would never again reach the heights of his first two seasons. In the offseason before the 2016 NFL season, he broke a bone in his foot. He struggled through an injury-riddled season, playing just eight games. He managed only 28 catches for 430 yards and two touchdowns in those contests and looked like a shell of the player he was previously.
Then, during the 2017 offseason, the Bills started to move on from Watkins. First, they declined his 2018 fifth-year option, essentially slating his contract to end after 2017. After shopping Watkins in trade talks throughout the entire offseason, the Bills finally dealt him to the Rams in August. Considering Watkins’ draft capital and production, the fact that his original team was willing to move on so quickly was a major red flag.
In 2017, Watkins was a massive flop for the Rams. He was their fourth weapon in the passing game behind former teammate Robert Woods, rookie Cooper Kupp, and running back Todd Gurley. Despite playing ahead of Woods for their entire time together in Buffalo, Watkins fell behind him in Los Angeles. For the season, Watkins totaled just 39 receptions on 70 targets for 593 yards and eight touchdowns. While his eight receiving touchdowns led the team, he failed to impress the Rams’ decision-makers. They had no interest in re-signing Watkins after 2017 and let him hit unrestricted free agency.
Even though Watkins had busted in 2016 and 2017, the Chiefs decided to take a chance on him, signing him to a 3-year, $48 million contract. The Chiefs had undergone an offseason of change, moving from longtime starter Alex Smith to 2017 rookie Patrick Mahomes. Watkins and Hill were a scary WR duo alongside Travis Kelce at tight end and Kareem Hunt at running back. While Mahomes was still unproven, the Chiefs’ offense was one of the most loaded groups in the entire NFL.
However, while Mahomes broke out and was the NFL MVP in 2018, Watkins didn’t produce. The offense funneled through Hill and Kelce, with those two players combining for 287 targets and 190 receptions. Watkins only managed to play 10 games, missing the final six of the last seven games with a foot injury. Even in the 10 games he played, Watkins had just 55 targets, 40 receptions, and 519 yards. While those numbers are respectable, they are not what a $16 million per year player should provide. Watkins did manage to make an impact in the Chiefs’ two playoff games, though. He totaled 10 receptions for 176 yards in those contests, providing at least some hope going into 2019.
In 2019, Watkins improved on his 2018 numbers. After Tyreek Hill suffered an injury in Week 1, Watkins exploded for nine receptions, 198 yards, and three touchdowns. However, that strong performance was just a mirage. Even though he played 14 games, he totaled only 52 catches for 673 yards and three touchdowns for the season. Therefore, in the other 13 games he played after Week 1, Watkins had just 43 receptions, 475 yards, and no receiving touchdowns.
After the fantasy season, most dynasty players assumed Watkins would depart Kansas City. The Chiefs could save $14 million in cap room if they cut Watkins before 2020. However, Watkins suddenly became a playoff hero for the Chiefs. He had 14 receptions, 288 yards, and a touchdown in their three playoff games, averaging 96 yards per game. Because of his strong playoff performance, the Chiefs decided to restructure Watkins’ contract, giving him a $9 million base salary with a chance to earn up to $16 million with incentives. Given Watkins’ contract, he will be the Chiefs’ WR2 in 2020. I would avoid him in any fantasy format, though. He proved in both 2018 and 2019 that he could not be trusted in fantasy, even with Mahomes as his quarterback. Sell him in dynasty if anybody is buying.
Demarcus Robinson
While both Hill and Robinson were in the Chiefs’ 2016 draft class, they have gone on completely different career paths. Even though the Chiefs selected Robinson in the fourth ahead of Hill in the fifth, Robinson was not nearly as successful. In 2016, Robinson recorded no offensive stats and solely played on special teams.
However, in 2017, Robinson started to earn some playing time. While Tyreek Hill was the Chiefs’ WR1, the departure of Jeremy Maclin and an injury to Chris Conley left some room at receiver. Robinson played as the WR3 behind Hill and Albert Wilson. In that limited role, he caught 21 passes on 39 targets for 212 yards and no touchdowns.
Once again, Robinson was just a depth piece in 2018. Wilson signed in free agency with the Dolphins, but Watkins took his place as the WR2. Additionally, Conley remained healthy, so Robinson fell to the Chiefs’ WR4. Robinson increased his production from 2017, recording 22 receptions for 288 yards and four touchdowns. Robinson did demonstrate chemistry with Mahomes and remained an essential part of the real-life Chiefs’ offense, even if he was irrelevant to fantasy players.
In 2019, Robinson finally received a real opportunity. Conley signed with the Jaguars in free agency, promoting Robinson up to WR3 on the depth chart, behind Hill and Watkins but ahead of rookie Mecole Hardman. After Hill’s Week 1 injury, Robinson became a starter for the Chiefs, joining Watkins in 2WR sets. In Week 2, Robinson exploded, catching all six of his targets for 172 yards and two touchdowns.
However, Robinson never caught more than four passes or recorded more than 56 receiving yards for the rest of 2019. He also returned to anonymity in the playoffs, totaling just three catches for 35 yards. Based on his flashes over four seasons, many expected Robinson to find a new home in free agency as a field-stretcher on a less-crowded offense. Unfortunately, Robinson seemed to have no market in free agency and took a 1-year, $2.3 million contract to come back to the Chiefs. Since all of the Chiefs’ 2019 weapons are back and healthy, Robinson has returned to complete irrelevance in dynasty formats. Consider him a WR handcuff that will only find relevance if there are multiple injuries in the Chiefs’ receiving group.
Mecole Hardman
Hardman is the biggest loser of the Chiefs’ offseason receiver moves. When the Chiefs drafted Hardman with the 56th overall pick in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, many had high hopes for him. Hardman is a burner and field-stretcher that profiled similarly to Tyreek Hill. At the time, Hill was under investigation for domestic violence, and he was in danger of missing the 2019 NFL season to suspension. Eventually, the NFL cleared Hill, and he then signed a contract extension.
Even though the Chiefs’ extended Hill, dynasty players still got to see what Hardman could do. After Hill’s Week 1 injury, Hardman received an opportunity to play. Unfortunately, Hardman remained as just the WR3 behind Watkins and Robinson. Playing in a limited role, Hardman had an exciting rookie season. He caught 26 of 41 targets for 538 yards and six touchdowns. His 20.7 yards per reception was among the best in the NFL, and he also excelled as a kick and punt returner, making the Pro Bowl as a returner.
In the 2020 offseason, most dynasty owners thought the Chiefs would move on from Watkins and Robinson, and Hardman would become the Chiefs’ WR2. Unfortunately for Hardman, the Chiefs decided to retain both of those players, and Hardman looks to once again play a limited role in 2020. I actually would use this opportunity to buy Hardman in dynasty, though. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, and both Watkins and Robinson are on one-year deals. Also, Hardman just turned 22 years old in March, so he is plenty young with time to develop. If you can get Hardman for an early second-round rookie pick, I’d easily pull the trigger to get his upside on my dynasty roster.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
