In part one of this series found here, I examined the rookie quarterbacks from the 2019 class and the hits and misses in that group. Since the running back position is a far larger group, I’ll split this into two parts. Here, I’ll look at the top four running backs in most rookie drafts. While not everyone had these four players as their top four, they went as the first four running backs off the board in most rookie drafts and mocks where I participated. Generally, in most 1 QB rookie drafts, all four of these players went in the first round, while no other running backs were first-round picks. These rankings are from my rankings from back in late May or early June. The rankings assume a 1 QB, PPR dynasty format.
Hits
Jacobs is a definite hit from the 2019 rookie class. He was drafted 24th overall to the Raiders, giving him the much-desired first-round draft capital. In almost every rookie draft, Jacobs and N’Keal Harry competed for the first and second overall picks. While Harry had a mostly lost 2019 season, Jacobs found instant success. He finished as the RB21 despite playing only 13 games. When looking at fantasy points per game, Jacobs was the RB15. Even though the Raiders finished 24th in total points, Jacobs was a reliable fantasy asset. He took 242 carries for 1150 yards and seven touchdowns.Â
The only minor disappointment for Jacobs was his lack of passing game usage. He only had 20 catches for 166 yards on 28 targets. In contrast, his backfield mates, Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington had 36 receptions each. Jacobs did struggle with a shoulder injury throughout 2019, so that could explain why he didn’t receive that much receiving work. Unfortunately for Jacobs, Richard was just signed to a contract extension and will probably take third-down work once again in 2020. Hopefully, Jacobs can at least eat into Washington’s share and take the majority of first and second-down passing game work.
Looking forward to 2020, I currently rank Jacobs as my dynasty RB8 and as the 20th player overall. I ranked him between 30-35 overall during the 2019 rookie draft season, so his value has increased over time. Jacobs just turned 22 earlier this month, so he is plenty young. I would feel comfortable with Jacobs as my RB1 on any dynasty roster.Â
Sanders was selected in the second round by the Eagles with the 53rd overall selection. Based on that draft capital, Sanders was either the 1.03 or 1.04 selection in most dynasty rookie drafts, behind Jacobs and N’Keal Harry. He battled with David Montgomery for draft position pretty much all offseason, with a massive debate between the two players. For the first nine weeks, Sanders and Jordan Howard formed an excellent running back tandem. Sanders out-touched Howard in the first three weeks, with 34 carries to Howard’s 25. Sanders also led in the receiving game, with six receptions on 10 targets compared to Howard’s three receptions on five targets. However, in Week 4 the Eagles decided to go with Howard as their lead running back. Howard received more carries than Sanders from Weeks 4-9, although Sanders maintained the majority of the third-down work.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, Howard was injured in that Week 9 contest, forcing him to miss the rest of the regular season. While Jay Ajayi and then Boston Scott stepped in as complements to Sanders, Sanders was the clear lead running back for the rest of the season. In Week 13 Sanders broke out. He took 17 carries for 83 yards and caught all five of his targets for 22 yards and a receiving touchdown. He then received 15 or more carries in weeks 14-16, before suffering an injury in the Eagles’ Week 17 game. From Weeks 13-16, Sanders was the RB3 in PPR formats.
Looking forward to 2020, Sanders will enter the season as the definite starting running back. Howard will likely leave in free agency, and Scott will probably be Sanders’ primary backup. If the split from Weeks 13-16 is the Eagles’ intention going forward, Sanders’ role in a Sanders/Scott backfield will provide immense fantasy value. The Eagles will also likely upgrade their passing weapons and will be a more potent offense than they were in 2019. Moreover, Sanders could progress as a player going into year two even though he was already highly successful at the end of the season. Sanders currently ranks as my RB12, and even though he could be passed by a rookie or two, a borderline RB1 has to be considered a hit for the 1.03 or 1.04 selection in rookie drafts.
Misses
Calling Montgomery a miss seems pretty harsh based on some of his raw numbers. He was a third-round pick, 73rd overall to the Bears. Even though he was only a third-round pick, he played all 16 games, and he carried the ball 242 times. However, he converted those 242 carries into just 889 yards for only 3.7 yards per carry. While he did score six rushing touchdowns, his receiving work was lackluster. He caught just 25 passes for 189 yards and a single receiving touchdown. He finished as the RB24 in total points, but only the RB33 in points per game. Tarik Cohen did receive 104 targets and 79 receptions out of the backfield, but 25 receptions in 16 games is still a disappointing stat line for Montgomery. Montgomery’s performance in 2019 was merely mediocre.
The problem for Montgomery is that he battled with Sanders for the 1.03 and 1.04 spots in 2019 rookie drafts. Whether you spent the 1.03 or 1.04 on Montgomery, an RB2/RB3 season has to be considered a disappointment. Players like A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf went shortly after Montgomery in those rookie drafts, and almost anyone would far prefer Brown or Metcalf right now. Also, Sanders was far more successful in 2019 than Montgomery was. However, I would still pay a late 2020 first-round rookie pick for Montgomery even in this strong draft class. But, if a player drafted at the 1.03 or 1.04 is now only worth a late first, that player has to be a miss. Even though he’s a miss based on 2019, there is still hope going into 2020. Bears’ general manager Ryan Pace recently said that he expects Montgomery to be the team’s starter and workhorse running back in 2020. My recommendation is: don’t give up on Montgomery just temper expectations from what they were a year ago.
After being drafted in the third round, 70th overall by the Rams, Henderson virtually didn’t play much in 2019. Outside of Week 17, he was active for all of the other games, so injuries didn’t contribute to his lack of playing time. Of the remaining 15 games, he recorded no offensive stats in eight of those contests. In the seven games where he contributed, he totaled just 39 carries for 147 yards and chipped in only four receptions for 37 yards.Â
Most of Henderson’s work came in Weeks 6-8. Not surprisingly, those three weeks were the only weeks that Henderson played while either Todd Gurley or Malcolm Brown was injured. Gurley missed Week 6, and Brown missed Weeks 7-8. When Gurley missed Week 6, Henderson received just six carries compared to Brown’s 11. In Weeks 7 and 8, Henderson finally looked like he was about to break into the offense, totaling 22 carries versus 28 for Gurley. Henderson also had three receptions to Gurley’s one. However, down the stretch, the Rams started using Gurley as a workhorse and Brown as the backup. It’s not clear what Henderson did wrong in his three-game stint, but the Rams essentially benched him for the rest of the season after those games.
Most dynasty owners who selected Henderson spent a first-round rookie pick to acquire him. Those owners thought that Gurley would miss multiple games or be extremely ineffective. Additionally, they believed that Henderson was the direct handcuff to Gurley and that Brown would be rendered irrelevant. None of that thinking came to pass, so Henderson has to be considered a miss based on his 2019 season. I still like him as a dynasty buy-low, but his value sits around a mid-second round rookie pick, a far cry from where it was in 2019.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
