Montez Sweat is Going to be Just Fine

Coming out of Mississippi State, Sweat had the football world clamoring about his size and speed shown at the 2019 NFL combine. Sweat, a 6’6” 260lbs. edge rusher set the 40-yard dash record for the position at 4.41 seconds per NFL Reaserch. However, with this size and speed came baggage that took Sweat completely off their boards. After falling to the Redskins at pick 1.26, Sweat came out of the gate painfully slow. He didn’t have a QB hit until week 3, and wouldn’t register a second until week 6. It didn’t take long for the masses to start wondering when this size and speed would equate to sacks. After finishing his rookie campaign with a mediocre 7 sacks and 13 QB hits, I’m here to tell you why Montez is going to produce at the level we all expected. Sweat’s buy window is right now.

Coaching Changes

Washington has made a lot of sneaky good moves on the coaching front this offseason. First and foremost, they brought in defensive-minded Ron Rivera who has proven to get the most out of his d-line. Rivera also brought with him Sam Mills III, who had been working on the Panthers d-line since 2011 to replace the curtailing Jim Tomsula. “Since 2012, no group of defensive linemen produced more sacks (368) than Mills’ group in Carolina” (Stackpole 2020).

Rivera and Mills know how to get their players to the QB. The Redskins have also brought in Jack Del Rio to replace Greg Manusky. In 12 seasons as a DC, Manusky has had a player finish with 10+ sacks 4 times. In 4 seasons as a DC, Del Rio has had a 10+sack player 7 times. These moves along with a full overhaul of the abysmal medical staff bode well for Sweat in his sophomore season.

Players with 10+ Sacks under DC Greg Manusky (12 Seasons)

Players with 10+ Sacks under DC Jack Del Rio (4 Seasons)

 –Table data gathered from Pro-football-reference.com

Supporting Cast

The Redskins appear to be moving on from the aging Ryan Kerrigan and Josh Norman in favor of their up-and-coming young defensive players. Washington has a strong core in the front seven of Sweat, Allen, Payne, Ioannidis, and Holcomb with the possibility of bringing back Jon Bostic this offseason. Washington all but surely will add to this core by taking Chase Young in the draft to line up across from Sweat.

A generational talent, Young will make it easier for the rest of his teammates as he garner’s eyes and attention. Reminds me eerily of Arik Armstead benefiting from the 49ers taking Bosa this past year. Arik in his first four years was only able to muster 9 total sacks. In 2019 with the addition of Bosa, Armstead brought down the QB 10 times. If the Redskins could land a decent CB in free agency, along with the young talent and A-list coaching staff they’ve brought in, Washington’s defense could go from a laughing stock to a formidable unit.

Measurables

Sweat’s record-breaking 40-yard dash time has been mentioned, but that doesn’t tell the full story of Montez’s raw talent. Clocking in at 4.41 on the 40(100th percentile), 6’6”, 260lbs. Sweat has a weight-adjusted speed score of 137.5 (100th percentile). Montez’s agility score of 11.29 and burst score of 123.7 both place him in the 85th percentile. His arm length measures in at 35 ¾” placing him in the 97th percentile. With this athleticism, Sweat was able to be the only edge rusher in 2019 with 50+ combined tackles to not miss more than 1 tackle all year (2%). He has the intuition to figure out where you want to go, is fast enough to run you down, and has the reach to grab if he miscalculates.

Sweat Profile

Concerns

It would be dismissive to think Sweat doesn’t have any concerns to worry about. The one that removed Sweat from draft boards was the hypertrophic cardiomyopathy diagnosis given at the NFL combine. Ian Rapoport later divulged that Montez had sought out further testing and it appeared to be a misdiagnosis by the NFL doctors.

Another concern some might have is his character. In 2016 Sweat was dismissed by Michigan State, a notoriously lenient program, for undisclosed reasons. “NFL teams believe Sweat was dismissed from Michigan State because he failed tests for marijuana and was accused of stealing a bike from a rack” (Pompei, 2019). This appears to be the only time his character has been in question as there have been no other reports regarding Montez’s behavior. Lastly, Montez was “only” able to put up 21 reps during the bench press at the 2019 NFL combine (29th percentile). I’m sure his strength will improve with age, and I tend to think his abnormally long arms hindered the results of this workout.

Montez did not wow the league or community in his rookie season. However, he did not fall flat on his face as some are keen to suggest. Washington was a black hole and arguably the worst franchise in 2019. With the rehaul of the coaching staff and medical staff, as well as the likely addition of Chase Young in the draft, I expect a bright future for Sweat. This makes him my favorite IDP player to invest in at the moment.

Thanks for reading. Find me on twitter @Dushanes_ to discuss your fantasy questions and any feedback you have!