Tale of the Tape is a series where I evaluate two players closely regarded by the Mock Draft community based on a series of metrics that have proven to be predictive of future Dynasty success. This research is a precursor to my annual WR1 rankings, which forecast the future success of incoming rookie wide receiver prospects by incorporating 12 advanced metrics into a model. Each metric is weighted differently within the model and, when combined, gives each player a single score, the WR1 rating. To see last year’s WR1 rankings, click here. This year’s pre-draft WR1 model rankings will be published in April, so stay tuned!
Tale of the Tape
Early declare
Eleven of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 rating scores were early declares. Only DeVonta Smith cracked this tier while playing through his senior season. 22 of the top 24 were also early declares. The players who declare early have received input from the NFL that they will be drafted early enough to warrant foregoing their senior season.
As such, this is one of the more influential inputs into the WR1 model.
Polk is NFL draft-eligible this year despite having only finished his sophomore campaign. When Legette was first draft-eligible, he had never eclipsed more than ten receptions in any single college season. Legette would never have been drafted if he declared at the same time Polk did.
Due to its weight on the model, Polk is awarded two positives over Legette in this category.
Breakout Year
Similar to the early declare metric, breakout year also had 11 of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 score with a first or second-year breakout. The only exception again is DeVonta Smith. It was only Smith’s immense production during his senior year that had him break the top-12 total WR1 score. Smith is the perfect measure of why this model is so accurate. Many analytic-based models did not have Smith as a top prospect because he failed several important metrics. However, the WR1 rating was one of the few that rated him (and Chris Olave) highly.
Polk passes here with flying colors, achieving a breakout in year two on the heels of his 694-yard, six-touchdown campaign in 2022. Legette, on the other hand, failed to meet this important threshold. Legette failed to hit not only a first or second-year breakout but also a third or fourth-year breakout. He would be the ultimate outlier in this regard if he were able to post a top-24 fantasy season in his NFL career.
Polk gets another double plus over Legette for the breakout year metric.
*Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Per Game (RYPTPAPG) – Best Season
10 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects and 21 of the top-24 WR1 prospects had a best season RYPTPAPG above 3.0.
Polk achieved a 3.08 RYPTPAPG this past season, which is impressive considering he was competing for targets with NFL prospects Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. Legette also met this threshold, posting a 3.05 this past year. Yes, it was Legette’s fifth year, but we already penalized him for that, so we won’t dwell on it here.
Polk and Legette are in a virtual tie in this category.
Weighted Dominator – Best Season
The weighted dominator metric is the player’s share of their team’s touchdowns and receiving yards weighted 80% receiving yards and 20% touchdowns. 11 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects had a dominator above 30%.
Legette shined here with a best-season (yes, his fifth year) weighted dominator of 41.5%. Polk’s 28.0%, while respectable, does miss the 30% threshold we like to see.
Legette is awarded a mark in the plus column for this category.
Contested Target Rate
This is a new input into the WR1 model this year, as it has proven to be a predictive metric to identify wide receiver busts.
* Click image for full tweet
The contested target rate is simply the number of contested targets divided by a player’s total targets. This is, in essence, a way to measure how much separation a prospect is getting. The logic behind this being predictive of busts is that these players can bully their way to production in college, but in the NFL, with bigger, stronger, faster players, the contested catch prowess doesn’t hold up near as well as elite separators.
Ideally, you want to see this rate under 20%.
Polk and Legette are once again very close in this metric. Polk sits at a 22.2% contested target rate. Legette is three-tenths better at 21.9%. Neither of these marks is great, but they aren’t nearly as much cause for alarm as some of the other prospects in this class that I will address later in the series.
As for the Polk vs Legette comparison, this category is a virtual tie.
Career Fantasy Points Per Game
This metric measures the prospect’s 1 point per reception and 1 point per 10 yards receiving fantasy scoring on a points-per-game basis in their college career. This is ultimately the exact metric you want to be mirrored for their NFL Careers.
Nine of the top twelve prospects in the WR1 model all-time had a PPR PPG above 17.0.
Legette’s mark of 6.7 is atrocious. The only player drafted into the NFL the last two years with a worse mark is Velus Jones. Polk’s 11.8 mark, while not outstanding, is considerably more respectable than Leggete.
This category goes to Polk.
Summary
Xavier Legette is a unique prospect, to say the least. He is a product of the soon-to-be bygone Covid era, which granted additional years of eligibility to college athletes who played during the pandemic. In his fifth year, Legette came from complete irrelevance to now be considered a second-round NFL pick.
Legette’s complete lack of production until his fifth year is a non-starter for any legitimate analytical model. Best season production matters, but age-adjusted production matters more.
Dynasty ADP tends to follow draft capital pretty closely. If the mock draft pundits are correct and Legette is selected 19 picks before Polk, then Legette should end up with a mid-second-round rookie draft ADP. Polk, meanwhile, is likely a late 2nd or early 3rd round type prospect.
I would take Polk straight up over Legette, so the fact you can get Polk 5 to 6 picks later in your rookie drafts is just gravy.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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