Welcome back from yesterday’s article and the 2023 rookie RB ranking countdown. We still have plenty of numerical data from the regular season we can look at using KPIs based from DFF’s very own Chris Miles. Using the points from his model and tales from the tape, I’ll continue to break down this highly touted rookie class by discussing The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly of each prospect for the top spots!
5. Tank Bigsby – Auburn
Size: 6′ 0″ | 214 lbs
College Dominator: 10.9%
Career YPC: 6.0
Career YPG: 95.7
Career Target Share: 2.0%
The Good
Tank Bigsby has the natural downhill ability and lateral quickness to be considered a Top-3 back in this draft class. The correct term should actually be lateral explosiveness because he has a lethal jump cut and agile burst to be a One-Cut star in the NFL. There are few holes in his game despite the production, but the lack of production comes with the caveat of being stuck on a terrible Auburn team for three seasons. Despite that, he still mustered an impressive 6.0 yards per carry. I’d attribute most of that to consistently breaking or slipping tackles because as much as lateral agility. He also has fantastic contact balance and runs behind his pads to fight for extra yards.
The Bad
Again, Bigsby doesn’t exactly impress the spreadsheets with production and his lack of receiving is concerning for high-end fantasy upside. Yes, I mentioned Auburn’s struggles, but the most concerning number is the dominator rating, and the lack of receiving is the weight bringing that score down. He looks natural while catching the ball but was mainly used on inefficient screens and flat check downs. How he looks catching downfield or in the slot remains to be seen. Furthermore, I have concerns with his long speed and the ability to break away to the second level, and need to see his test scores.
The Ugly
Draft capital and landing spot could easily land Bigsby behind Bijan Robinson in regards to the talent on tape. The NFL Combine and test scores could be the thing that pushes him down both NFL and Fantasy Bigboards. Until then, he’s firmly in the middle of the pack out of this list.
Player Comparisons: Skinny Josh Jacobs
4. Sean Tucker – Syracuse
Size: 5′ 10″ | 210 lbs
College Dominator: 31.5%
Career YPC: 6.1
Best Season YPG: 145.9
Career Target Share: 8.0%
The Good
Tucker has been a productive and efficient player for Syracuse, and is one of the best at exploiting and gashing creases in the defense. He shines the most in the passing game and is comfortable catching away from his body and then running to the house. My favorite trait of Tucker is his ability to shift into high gear and accelerate on a dime. He would shine in a spread offense that would allow him open boxes and plenty of receiving work.
The Bad
One thing Tucker lacks is elite tackle-breaking ability and he doesn’t run with much violence. I wanted to compare him to Kareem Hunt because of how he’s been utilized at Syracuse, but he isn’t the same angry runner and will need to improve at driving through arm tackles to stay elite at the pro level.
The Ugly Truth
Tucker will be a favorite of many analysts and has plenty to love, however, he did gain much of his production against mediocre talent if we were to poke holes in his game. He looks like an explosive PPR and YAC monster that should test well at the combine to provide proof that backs the tape.
Player Comparisons: Bigger and Faster Aaron Jones.
3. Zach Charbonnet – UCLA
Size: 6′ 1″ | 220 lbs
College Dominator: 24.5%
Career YPC: 5.6
Best Season YPG: 168
Career Target Share: 9.3%
The Good
Zach Charbonnet is a massive running back with soft hands and quick feet. I don’t know about you, but that certainly excites me. His size would indicate a plodder but he has the long speed to break past the second level for a touchdown. But again, his soft hands and natural receiving ability make him useful as an NFL team’s three-down back and very useful for our Fantasy rosters. Charbonnet uses his size properly and runs behind his pads and through defenders but still looks nimble behind his blockers when hitting his cutback lanes.
The Bad
Analytics won’t love the fact that Charbonnet elected to stay for his senior season because nothing suggests that he needed to improve his draft stock. He could’ve wanted a more complete resume after a transfer from Michigan since he earned an NIL deal, but unfortunately, we don’t know and can’t evaluate on speculation. Furthermore, we need to see how he tests before we get too excited because things like a low 40 could tank draft stock
The Ugly Truth
Charbonnet looks like a Bluechip prospect with the size and ability to be an absolute bellcow. He’s a rare blend of size, speed, and power and we might need to ignore the late-declare status. Things like NIL deals and the ease of the transfer portal have made college run more akin to NFL free agency. So this will be a learning experiment for dynasty analysts and managers. Until then, I’m taking Charbonnet anywhere I can get him.
Player Comparisons: The player we wanted Najee Harris to be with Ezekiel Elliott‘s upside if he can run below 4.5
2. Jahmyr Gibbs – Alabama
Size: 5′ 11″ | 200 lbs
College Dominator: 14.8%
Career YPC: 5.2
Career YPG: 107.8
Career Target Share: 7.8%
The Good
Jahmyr Gibbs’ combination of speed, agility, and vision make him look like a magician with the greatest disappearing act on the gridiron. He has the awareness to leverage a defender’s momentum to cut away, and then the agility to cut back in the opposite direction away from a second defender in moments. He compensates for his size with contact balance to absorb hits and gain extra yardage. The best part of his game is his receiving ability, which provides so much upside for fantasy managers. That, combined with his natural ability in the open field set him up to be a YAC monster.
The Bad
Gibbs is undersized and could find himself in a frustrating D’Andre Swift-type situation if coaches don’t believe he can handle early down work. But the real area of concern, that will go unlooked by many fantasy analysts but will keep him off the field, is pass protection. Gibbs has already been benched a few times for missed assignments and things like that will keep him out of key passing situations and two-minute drills. The production won’t massage the spreadsheets either but it’s important to remember that he spent two seasons at Georgia Tech.
The Ugly
Gibbs looks like a PPR lover’s dream and oozes talent. But it’s important to understand that he also oozes with “Superior prospect that will constantly lose work to Jamaal Williams or Brian Robinson.” Draft stock and landing spot will be a huge factor just like any early-round prospect.
Player Comparisons: Baby (Both in size and age) Alvin Kamara
1. Bijan Robinson – Texas
Size: 6′ 0″ | 220 lbs
College Dominator: 33.4%
Career YPC: 5.8
Best Season YPG: 157.8
Career Target Share: 11.4%
The Good
Everything. Bijan is a complete back with the size and power to punish safeties and the slipperiness to make linebackers miss. He’s certainly proven his worth via production being the entire engine and lifeblood of the Longhorn offense both on the ground and as a receiver. If EA still made EA games he’d likely be all 99’s.
The Bad
There isn’t much bad. Robinson might not blow the doors off anybody with his 40 time and sometimes does too much with his feet instead of picking a cut lane and taking it, but that’s just me filling out this category.
The Ugly
Bijan Robinson is the best prospect since Saquon Barkley. Period.
Player Comparisons: Todd Gurley with good knees.
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