Over the next few weeks, I will be revealing my annual WR1 prospect model ratings to help prepare DFF readers for their dynasty rookie drafts. This article covers the prospects ranked 15-11 in the model.

For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. 

You may find an in-depth explanation of the model’s process and a glossary of what the metrics mean here. 

Before we get into the 2022 prospects, here are the top 20 all-time prospects in the model so you can see how effective it is at forecasting future fantasy value.

Now we will reveal the 2022 prospect scores.

15) John Metchie, Alabama

The Good

Analytically, not much from Metchie’s profile suggests he will go on to have a top 24 fantasy WR type of career. The best thing he has going for him is that he played for Alabama in the SEC. Alabama has had a very competitive wide receiver room in recent years, so just making it there as a starter says something. Metchie was awarded six points for his overall WR1 model score for playing in the SEC. 

The Bad

You hear terms like polished, sophisticated, and advanced when it comes to Metchie’s film. This can also be code for a lower ceiling. He uses his advanced technique to manipulate corners and handled press coverage well at the college level. He received a film grade from Lance Zierlein  of 6.18 which contributed three of a maximum 15 towards his overall rating.

Metchie did not participate in the combine drills due to his ACL injury, so his relative athletic score is a projection. He has decent size and speed but does not possess elite NFL athlete traits. According, to Grinding the Mocks, which provides a consensus draft position from hundreds of mock drafts, Metchie is projected to be drafted in the third round of the NFL draft. This did not earn him any points towards his overall WR1 score.

The Ugly

Metchie didn’t breakout (achieve a 20% receiving yardage and touchdown share) until age 21. Granted, he did compete with Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and Jameson Williams for targets but that has not stopped great wide receivers from breaking out in the past. We also need to bear in mind that Williams barely saw the field at Ohio St. after being stuck behind Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Metchie may be a usable back-end fantasy starter in full PPR leagues as he projects as a slot receiver with higher reception potential vs yardage. The dominator rating of 22.6% is very weak, subtracting two points from his score. Lastly, Metchie suffered an ACL tear in December so we should expect a slower start until he gets back to his original form.

14) Alec Pierce, Cincinnati

The Good

Alec Pierce is an athletic marvel. He ran an impressive 4.41 forty-yard dash for a player of his size (6’3”, 211 lbs.) He also had a 40.5-inch vertical leap. This contributed to Pierce’s lofty relative athletic score (combined score based on key athletic measurables shown in the graphic below) of 9.8, earning him the maximum 15 points towards his overall WR1 rating. It is also this athleticism that has mock drafters projecting a second-round selection for Pierce.

Pierce is the type of high ceiling player I like to take a chance on in round three of dynasty rookie drafts vs a player like Metchie who projects to have a higher floor but a lower ceiling. His special teams’ prowess will be attractive to teams and likely improve his draft capital but be wary of that, as it won’t help you in fantasy. 

The Bad

Pierce’s production was mediocre as compared to the best prospects across the board. His 25.2% dominator subtracted two points from his overall score, while his career PPR PPG gave him negative five points. Pierce’s receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) of 2.21 was less than what we look for in future top 24 fantasy wide receivers.

The Ugly

Pierce is a late declare which typically means the NFL didn’t think he was ready to come into the league after his junior year. Pierce also played against weak competition in the American Athletic Conference which subtracted five points from his overall score. Overall, Pierce is still a bit rawer than some of the other prospects but he has the physical tools to be an impact player in the NFL.

13) Justyn Ross, Clemson

Ross is one of the more intriguing prospects in this draft class. He broke out in a big way as a true freshman with 1,000 yards receiving and nine touchdowns. In doing this, he earned the maximum six points for breakout age. Ross was being discussed in circles as the top wide receiver in this draft class after his freshman year. He is a savvy wide receiver with good size who can be a mismatch for smaller corners.

The Bad

Outside of breakout age, Ross doesn’t shine in any of the predictive metrics. He earned zero points in four categories (film grade 5.89, PPR PPG 16.0, RYPTPA 1.97, Projected draft capital third round). His dominator is 30.0% earning him three points. 

The Ugly

After his freshman year, Ross missed the entire 2020 season because of a congenital fusion in his neck and spine. His medical condition is a major red flag. The draft capital he ultimately receives will say a lot about what NFL teams, who have done extensive background checks, think about him. The fact that he was able to achieve his best performances at an earlier age than the other prospects provides hope that if he can return to his original form he could be an impact player. Lastly, his relative athletic score was awful. 2.49 was the worst score in this draft class and subtracted three points from his overall score.

12) Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama

The Good

Wow! That dominator rating pops off the page.  51.2% ranks first overall among 2022 prospects.  That contributes the maximum of five points to his WR1 rating.  Tolbert’s RYPTPA impressively ranks second overall at 3.63. He is an excellent route runner who uses subtle techniques to create separation such as in the clip below.

https://twitter.com/JetPackGalileo/status/1497791896839606274

Film like this is why Lance Zierlein gave Tolbert his seventh-highest film grade in the class.

The Bad

G5 early declares are rare but you still want to see it and unfortunately, Tolbert did not declare early. The early declaration is an endorsement from the NFL that you are going to receive significant draft capital. He is currently projected by consensus mock drafts to go in the third round which did not earn him points towards his overall rating. Tolbert’s breakout age of 20.5 is also a red flag. He should have been able to earn targets earlier in his career as an NFL-level prospect at South Alabama.

The Ugly

Tolbert played for South Alabama so he was going up against cornerbacks from Arkansas State and Georgia Southern. He gets negative five points for achieving his high level of production against weak competition relative to the other prospects. 

11)  Christian Watson, North Dakota State

The Good

Watson was the leading receiver on the 2019 North Dakota State team which featured Trey Lance at quarterback. He vaulted up draft boards after a tremendous Senior Bowl week. He was named as the National team’s top receiver.  The Athletic reported him as “virtually uncoverable in one-on-one drills”

His size (6’4” 208 lbs.), speed (4.36 forty-yard dash), and vertical (38.5 inches) make him an attractive target for NFL general managers. This gave Watson a perfect 10 relative athletic score which is the top in this class. Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Andre Johnson are some other names in the top ten all-time for relative athletic score. 

Watson’s second strongest metric was his dominator rating of 44.0%. This is 90th percentile among prospects and ranked fifth overall.  The RYPTPA was solid at 3.12 contributing 10 points to his WR1 rating.  His projected second-round draft capital is also a highlight.

The Bad

Watson stayed all four years which subtracted five points vs if he had declared early. His PPR PPG was subpar for a top-level prospect at only 9.0 per game during his college career. The Bison were a run-heavy team who were typically had big leads in games during Watson’s tenure, so Watson doesn’t have eye-popping volume stats.

Watson’s film grade only earned him three points out of a possible 11. He is very raw. He used his ridiculous athleticism to get open in college. Watson has a limited route tree but will be attractive to teams in need of a vertical threat. The route running can and will need to be developed.

The Ugly

The level of competition for NCAA’s Division I Football Championship Subdivision scored Watson negative eight points towards his WR1 rating score. Watson was a man among boys so it remains to be seen how he will fare vs bigger, stronger, faster athletes.

Thank you to Player Profiler, Lance Zierlein, Grinding the Mocks, NFL Mock Draft Database, and Spaceman prospect database for supplying data. Some of these metrics are dynamic and may change after this article is published.

I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy.