CeeDee Lamb: 2021 Dynasty Profile

PAST PRODUCTION

CeeDee Lamb was a box-stuffing college prospect at Oklahoma. His Breakout Age of 19.4 ranks in the 80th percentile, while his 38.1% College Dominator ranks in the 77th percentile. Additionally, Lamb recorded a 97th-percentile College YPR and a 79th-percentile College Target Share. In other words, Lamb was highly targeted and extremely productive and efficient with the targets that he received–oh, and he did it all at a young age. To say that Ceedee Lamb was a “good” prospect would be a drastic understatement. 

The Dallas Cowboys selected CeeDee Lamb with the 17th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. With Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup already on the roster, the Cowboys weren’t in desperate need of wide receiver help, but they couldn’t pass up Lamb’s incredible talent. And, even in a crowded offense, Lamb had an impressive rookie season, racking up 74 receptions for 935 yards and 5 TDs. That stat line is already above-average for a rookie receiver, but Lamb’s rookie campaign could’ve been even more impressive if Dak Prescott had remained healthy. Through the first five weeks of the season, Lamb was on pace for 93 receptions, 1,386 yards, and 6 TDs. 

2021 OUTLOOK

The Dallas Cowboys project as one of the NFL’s best offenses in 2021. Dak Prescott probably won’t keep up his absurd attempt numbers from 2020, but with a struggling defense and some of the NFL’s best weapons at his disposal, he should be near the league lead once again. This means that Lamb could see north of 130 targets with a mere 20% target share. His floor is incredibly high.

How about the ceiling? Well, Calvin Ridley secured a 25.1% target share in 2020, which was good for 143 targets. If you give Lamb the same target share in Dallas and account for the extra game, he begins to approach 180 total targets. With that level of volume, he could easily finish as a high-end WR1. I reference Calvin Ridley here because, like Lamb, he is a smaller receiver. Ridley’s massive 2020 production demonstrates that a receiver no longer needs to be built like Calvin Johnson to reach 1,300+ yards and double-digit TDs. In redraft, I’m selecting Ceedee Lamb with confidence as early as the top of round three.

DYNASTY ANALYSIS

Looking ahead, Ceedee Lamb is tied to a prolific offense and one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s only twenty-two years old and there’s a good chance that either Michael Gallup or Amari Cooper will leave the team via trade or free agency within the next two seasons. With WR1 upside in 2021, Lamb is the perfect receiver to help you win now and in the future. I would struggle to call him a dynasty “buy” because fantasy managers are already so high on him, but I do view him as a top-5 dynasty receiver and would be happy to acquire him at that price. 

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