Part 1 – Core Construction

Rookie drafts are wrapping up and startups are the only thing getting dynasty owners through the off-season. If you’re a true dynasty degenerate, at least set yourself up for success from the draft. We’re not going to just set ourselves up for success now, but build a sustainable roster for the future to create a true “dynasty.” You don’t have to go all-in on big-name vets, nor do you need to only draft players under 26. Mix a little of both strategically.

So we’ll begin this two-part series by focusing on the first nine rounds of a real draft I participated in. I’ll break down how to navigate the draft board pick-by-pick, as well as provide you alternative routes that may fit your preferences. We’ll explore how to draft so you can compete now, without sacrificing your future. Superflex and TE Premium leagues are gaining in steam, and this full-point PPR league happens to be both. So let’s begin with the fifth pick of the first round.

Pick 1.05 Trevor Lawrence (QB-JAX)

The Pick I wanted: Justin Herbert

Plan C: Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow

Superflex means securing your QB position is a top priority. Many drafts see five QBs go in the first round, and this draft saw a run for the first six picks. I honestly wanted to trade back from this spot after Herbert left the board, but couldn’t strike a deal. It’s not that I dislike Lawrence the player, I just dislike Urban Meyer. I could write another article on my doubts about Meyer as a coach, but this isn’t about that. This is about value. Even more so, this is about understanding how a player is valued in your league. It doesn’t matter what you or your favorite analyst values a player because it’s about league consensus. Knowing most of the people in this league, which includes DFF’s own Michael Romero, I know that high pedigree young QBs are gold. I could draft a player whose value I like better, but the first round isn’t a place to reach because we could always trade later. I’d trade back at this position if your luck is better than mine, so let’s pretend like it is.

Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow both have the upside to finish higher than Lawrence. I know everyone loves youth, but let’s not get carried away like Lamar Jackson is ancient. Rushing is undervalued among QBs in some situations, and this is certainly one of those situations. A case could be made that the biggest difference between a QB1 and a QB2 is either gaudy passing numbers that either win you an MVP, ROTY, or Super Bowls, or you have rushing upside. No, that isn’t an exaggeration. In 2020 there were only three quarterbacks inside the top-10 that didn’t offer much rushing upside. Those three uncoincidentally were our aforementioned award winners Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, and Tom Brady, respectively. Sure, Lawrence is athletic enough to put up Ryan Tannehill-Esque rushing numbers, but Lawrence also hasn’t taken his first snap yet with a roster worse than the Titans. To further sell this argument, the QBs 11 and 12 were Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan, where we see a significantly lower floor correlated directly to the rushing upside.

Someone in your league will probably covet this pick, so why not trade back for an extra pick in the top rounds and “settle” for Lamar Jackson a pick or two later, or get Joe Burrow at the turn who is going almost a full round later in some leagues. Jackson struggled the first half of the season but finished looking like a former MVP, and Burrow will have a full off-season under his belt along with receiving upgrades. Moreover, Jackson offers the highest rushing upside of any QB only comparable to Jalen Hurts, and we haven’t seen the best of Burrow. 

Bonus Stat: Jackson and Burrow are both 24 years old.

Pick 2.08 CeeDee Lamb (WR-DAL)

The Pick I wanted: Justin Jefferson

Plan B: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

I’m sure there are a few who are panicked I haven’t picked an RB earlier, but a reminder, this is Superflex. Fantasy darlings like Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, and Nick Chubb are still on the board, but I have my eye on younger talent that can still help me win now without using chips on waning talent. RB shelf-life is common knowledge in the dynasty community, and RB is one of the few positions where their best years are in year one. Receiver shelf-life is entirely different, and I like having a guy that has the highest upside to be a “set it and forget it” type player.

Enter: CeeDee Lamb, a receiver who put up a quiet 74/935/5 stat line as the full PPR WR22. Justin Jefferson certainly put up gaudy numbers as a rookie, but I’m not really crying over missing on him and landing Lamb. Lamb has the younger and better QB and should cement himself as the surefire 1B on the offense. I find it hard for the Cowboys to be able to afford to keep both Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper next season, so he could put up even bigger numbers with a healthy Dak Prescott. Whether or not you can get Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, or Lamb, I recommend securing a young wideout that’s gonna be your top asset for triple the amount of time of an RB on their second contract.

Pick 3.05 Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB-KC)

The Pick I wanted: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Plan B: J.K. Dobbins

It’s rare that everything just works out for me in a draft, but the Fantasy God of Drafting was with me. Yes, Ezekiel Elliott was still on the board, but I don’t care. I want the younger buck with less mileage that’s the de facto RB1 on a top-5 offense. If you’re reluctant to draft Clyde Edwards-Helaire because you think his rookie season was disappointing, read my next sentence very carefully. CEH isn’t a disappointment, you just overhyped and overpaid for him. Recency bias and the need for instant rookie gratification have us devaluing second-year players. Our very own Zach Freed believes we’re doing the same with Kyle Pitts and wrote an interesting piece here  This seems like a straight to DVD sequel of the David Montgomery saga. The plot is dumb, they recast the main character, and nobody should buy it.

Edwards-Helaire was a top-10 back while scoring only one touchdown through his first six weeks. He would’ve been top-5 had he scored another one. It’s easy to point out things like his red zone efficiency and second-half of the season performance when you ignore the offensive line woes and the fact the Chiefs signed Le’Veon Bell. Now Bell and Damien Williams are gone, and Kansas City made it their off-season mission to overhaul the trenches after being exposed in Super Bowl LV. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif is back from injury, rookie Creed Humphrey should step in as the starting center from day one, and the Chiefs spent a first-rounder to trade for Orlando Brown. On top of that, they bring Kyle Long out of retirement and sign Joe Thuney in free agency. What’s not to like about moves like this? Despite the worse offensive line, Edwards-Helaire still mustered 4.4 yards a carry, so with a new line and still being on a team with a positive game script, I may have drafted a 22-year-old with RB1 potential in the third round.

Pick 4.08 DeAndre Hopkins (WR-AZ)

The Pick I Wanted: Ezekiel Elliott

Plan C: Joe Mixon

I’m sure the “I don’t draft receivers older than 25” half of the dynasty community is grossed out by this pick. Bare with me, because I promise I’m gonna sell you on this. I told you, we’re going to win now, without sacrificing our future. First, I’m getting last season’s PPR WR4 late in the fourth round. Sure he’s 29 years old, but we still expect Julio Jones to be a 1,200-yard player if healthy on a new team at 32. Next, DeAndre Hopkins isn’t a player who relies on pure athleticism, but rather finesse, sure hands and some of the best route running in the game. Few receivers offer the high floor on a pass-happy offense like Hopkins, and there’s no better mental stability than having TWO receivers you feel comfortable playing no matter the week. If he helps me win this season it’ll be worth the pick, but win or lose, I doubt he’s on my roster beyond the next season or two.

The key to winning now and keeping a competitive team for multiple seasons is having exit strategies for your older players and reload with young talent, instead of having to rebuild. If you fall into the traps of trading away future picks to trade up, drafting older players isn’t for you. But if you feel comfortable enough to trade away a current pick a round ahead I say sure, go get your guy. Don’t trade future picks in a startup if you don’t have to. I’d say you probably don’t need to at all. I was actually offered one of these traps to move up in this round but remained patient. Now I have a WR1, and see Lamb as his potential replacement next season. Furthermore, there are still rookies and younger receivers I can get later. If I’m in a great position to win after Week 6 I’ll hang onto him till the offseason, but if he gets injured or I don’t look solid, I’m gonna hock him to a team that’s looking to win now in exchange for youth or future picks sooner rather than later.

Pick 5.05 Joe Mixon (RB-CIN)

The Pick I wanted: Joe Mixon

Plan B: David Montgomery

This is by far my riskiest pick and I know it could make or break me. Many in the fantasy community have divorced Joe Mixon and are already dating other running backs. I get it. But at his current value and better situation, this could be a boom. Mixon is primed for a huge workload according to the Bengals camp, and his biggest obstacles are injury and poor offensive line play. I’m betting on the upside of increased targets and an improved offense to create more red zone opportunities. It’s even more important that I acquire as much RB depth going forward due to his injury history. I’ll want to double-dip in the RB Pool rounds 8-13 and chase one of his potential backups in the late rounds as an insurance policy.

TRADE ALERT

Quarterback desperation is getting real at this point and many like to go ahead and grab their QB2 for their Superflex spot. I believe you have to “risk it for the biscuit”, so I accepted an offer to trade out of the sixth round for the 8.05 and the 10.05. The board may fall differently for you, but I wasn’t in love with the talent on the board like Baker Mayfield or Amari Cooper since I already had Lamb. Aaron Rodgers was still on the board, but I’d rather someone else deal with that headache. There’s just so much value on the board that trading for an extra dip in the talent pool is a no-brainer. If you find yourself in a position to trade back for extra picks like me, smash accept with confidence.

Pick 7.05 Terrace Marshall (WR-PHI)

The Pick I wanted: Diontae Johnson

Plan C: Rashod Bateman

I can’t stress enough how much I recommend trading back after the fourth and fifth rounds. I thought I was going to have to make a tough choice between proven talent in Diontae Johnson, and my second favorite rookie wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. There was a run the round before on top rookie wideouts not named Ja’Marr Chase, but I’m not sad about missing the boat. I love the value of Marshall and Rashod Bateman and feel better about their situations than I do Jaylen Waddle or Devonta Smith. But Diontae Johnson is a volume monster that would look great as my third receiver. But alas, I was sniped a pick before and the decision was made for me.

I feel good spending my sixth pick on Marshall because of his combination of size, speed, and route running. He has the fantastic landing spot in Carolina where he reunites with his old OC Joe Brady. I believe in program pedigree, and I’m willing to keep betting on LSU wide receivers. I think he has the opportunity to help me win this year as a flex option, and at the worst, he may take a year to develop. D.J. Moore is still number one in this offense that also includes Robby Anderson, but Curtis Samuel finished as last season’s WR25 with Teddy Bridgewater’s limitations. Fast forward to today, and Samuel is in Washington, and Sam Darnold is now under center (more on this later) to hopefully open up the passing game downfield. Even with the return of Christian McCaffery, this offense can support three wide receivers as long as Darnold can perform. Last season’s trio of receivers were the first in Panthers’ history to all eclipse 1,000 yards, and Teddy Bridgewater set a franchise record completion percentage of 69.1 in Matt Rhule’s first year. If Carolina feels comfortable enough to let Bridgewater go, and trade for Darnold instead of drafting a QB, I have no reason not to trust them so far.

I’d also feel comfortable taking Rashod Bateman here as well because Baltimore seems determined to improve its wide receiver production. He profiles as a Keenan Allen-type that could serve as chain mover to complement Marquise Brown’s field-stretching. Regardless of the young receiver, get your guy around here. You have young talent that can help you now, and increase in value in the future. This is just another 2021 move to follow the philosophy of building a roster that can win now and has youth to stay competitive for seasons to come.

Pick 8.05 Michael Carter (RB-Jets)

The Pick I wanted: Mac Jones

Plan C: Sam Darnold

Mac Jones is a guy I’ve missed out on in most drafts whether it be rookie or startup. I’m higher on him than most because I think he can make every throw, command an offense, and read a defense. As far as projecting real talent versus fantasy talent, we’ve gotten carried away with only believing mobile QBs can produce at the next level. We often forget that a quarterback’s primary job is to throw the football. Justin Herbert was looking at a similar situation last year, and now he’s a top-five dynasty QB. We’ve watched Cam Newton for years and shouldn’t need any more evidence showing that a QB can have all the physical tools, but if they lack passing consistency, they’re going to limit your offense more than their legs will help you. That’s why I want a QB I know can win a job and stay at that job longer than a season. Thus, Mac Jones right here makes sense. Cam is on a one-year deal, is coming off a poor season, and is injury-prone. I may have to wait a year, but who cares if he’s a stud. Too bad he’s off the board.

Luckily we set up a queue like our Big Board and we can move down the list to other talent being undervalued like Michael Carter. Despite being sniped on a rookie quarterback, I’m still beyond happy with this pick. I recently wrote a piece on 2021 sleepers that includes a more detailed look at Carter and his situation in New York. I’m getting a rookie as a Flex/RB3 that could finish as an RB2 if the stars align. Furthermore, I need to get my young guy now because as I mentioned, know who you’re drafting with. I told you that DFF’s Michael Romero was in this draft, right? The GMs with picks behind me already had QBs secured, and I know Romero is one of those picks. Having drafted with him I know he wants the young RB with upside. I could go QB here but I won’t. Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, and Derek Carr are still on the board for me to get a QB three picks later because I traded back. It’s an easy (and sweet) decision to snipe Romero for young RB depth and still get my QB2 later. Sorry, not sorry Mike.

Pick 8.08 Sam Darnold (QB-CAR)

The Pick I wanted: Sam Darnold

Plan B: Derek Carr

Anybody who was panicking about my QB situation can now relax. I was patient and it paid off. Sam Darnold isn’t a sexy pick for most, but as I’ve mentioned, I love what Rhule is doing in Carolina and willing to risk drafting Darnold. I can still get a third QB on my roster later. 

Darnold is a 24-year-old QB who should benefit from being away from Adam Gase. I should’ve already sold you on the upside of this offense with the Terrace Marshall pick a round ago. Carr would be a quarterback with a safer floor, but as a QB2 I’d rather have someone a little younger with a little more upside. Feel free to go with a safer option if you’re in my position, but don’t ignore the upside of younger talent when you can.

Pick 9.05 Julio Jones (WR-TEN)

The Pick I wanted: Julio Jones

Plan B: Deebo Samuel

I’ll begin by saying I don’t care that he’s 32. I don’t care one bit. I’m willing to gamble my ninth pick on one of the greatest receivers of all time who has enough left in the tank. People act like Julio didn’t produce last season despite his second-half injuries. When he played he never finished below 15 points in PPR with Dirk Koetter’s pedestrian offense. We’re trying to win now, remember? Getting a bonafide WR1 in the ninth is how you win now. The draft is still young and receiver is the deepest position group, so I can get younger talent later. I’ve been targeting him in most startups because his value is just too low. Just like with Hopkins, I can trade him mid-season if it doesn’t look good for me. If this pick is a bust, it’s a bust I’m willing to roll the dice on. Unless you’re intentionally tanking to build a young roster (boo), don’t let Julio pass. 

But if you’re firmly out on Julio, Deebo Samuel’s value is too hard to ignore in this same draft position. Ignore what other analysts say about ADOT because most fail to correlate that stat to his YAC ability. If we look at Samuel’s last healthy season in 2019, you’ll see his dismal ADOT of 7.9. No, that isn’t pretty, but remember when I mentioned YAC ability? Samuel is 5’11” and clocks in at 214 lbs. This size sounds like a goal-line back more than a receiver, but this makes him a YAC monster to the tune of 461 of his 803 yards that season coming after the catch. Does it matter how he gets his production as long as he gets it?

Regardless if you like Julio or Deebo, there’s receiving value all over the board. Secure your running backs, quarterbacks, and top rookies before you think about getting a third veteran receiver or tight end because you could end up with Jones, Samuel, or Jonnu Smith in the ninth round. This prevents you from having to player-chase in these middle rounds so you have the freedom to target key depth and luxury picks.

Final Outlook After Round Nine

We’re halfway through the quality-player portion of the draft and we can take a step back and look at the core of our roster to see where we need to plan later in the draft. Remember, we’re trying to compete now, but have enough youth and assets to stay competitive. Finally, we’ll look at where the value fell and how you can apply this situation to your drafts.

* Young QB’s with upside go very fast. The last starters under 30 years old after Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones were Jared Goff, Jameis Winston (If he starts), and Jimmy Garoppolo. If you want to wait on a QB2 in lew of depth elsewhere, be prepared to settle for Daniel Jones or Derek Carr.

* No, I haven’t gotten a TE yet, but you should take the Ricky Bobby approach. You’re either first or you’re last to draft a TE, but we’ll follow up more on this during Part II.

* Running Back depth can’t be ignored. If you want to win this season or next, you better hope you have talent in the earlier rounds. Do your best to get the vets you like, but don’t miss out on 2021 rookies. Najee Harris and Travis Etienne will go early but don’t sleep on Trey Sermon, Javonte Williams, or Michael Carter. Hitting on a rookie RB is what’s going to keep your team competitive for a long time. Not to mention. Injuries are a real thing, and last year had most of us scrambling for RBs after Week4. My next pick will probably be the best RB on my board.

* Receiver is a luxury position and value can be obtained later than any other position. Don’t get cute and miss out on young studs, but a high-end WR2 can be acquired at a lower round. If you miss out on big-name young talent, get a high floor vet like Hopkins and Thomas and wait on another WR a few rounds later. This gives you room to get more running back depth or a young QB. There are still receivers on the board that could finish as a WR3, but I’m gonna chase youth with upside most of the way.

The core of this team is now solidified and we can start building the rest of our roster. Come back for Part II of this series, where we’ll take a broader look at how this draft finished. We won’t dive in pick-by-pick but take an overall look at the completed roster post-draft by position, so you can see how the later rounds can bolster your roster for wins this season and set you up for the future.

Think my draft strategy is nuts or helpful? Come tell me on Twitter @SportsJag to rate my draft, give me a hot take, or see any of my future work.