At this point in the off-season, I prefer to write articles on prospects that aren’t in that elite tier so that DFF members have a value-added when reading. After all most have likely heard quite enough about the top prospects in the class to make their decision one way or the other. For that reason, I haven’t done a deep profile on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In my mind, he is a no-brainer prospect.
However, recently several respected draft analysts with huge followings have been poking holes in his profile and dropping him down their draft boards.
These three are all excellent analysts. The consistent expression is he has average speed and athleticism. He lacks high-end irreplaceable traits. However, what he does have is a high football IQ and a polished route running tree.
We may have a bit of prospect fatigue with Smith-Njigba. Or perhaps more likely this could also be the polar opposite of my article on Jalin Hyatt here where I ascertained that the NFL would value Hyatt more than dynasty players should as his elite speed opens up the field for other offensive weapons. That speed opens up the field for players like Smith-Njigba. Ultimately, it is Smith-Njigba who gets the fantasy points in that scenario though.
The NFL doesn’t value slot wide receivers with average athleticism in the same way as they do speed merchants like Hyatt. This is another reason draft capital is only a piece of the puzzle when you select players to give you the most future fantasy production.
For dynasty players, this graphic below should be the only thing you need to see on Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
We already know what Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave are after stellar rookie seasons in which they finished first and second in rookie wide receiver fantasy points per game. Jaxon Smith-Njigba outproduced them both as a 19-year-old sophomore. A parallel situation was when we had Ja’Marr Chase as a slam dunk pick after we already saw Justin Jefferson go off his rookie year.
I see Smith-Njigba having a Keenan Allen-type career. Allen ran a 4.71 40-time and received the same labels as JSN is getting now. While he was a top-5 fantasy wide receiver only once he was a top-12 fantasy wide receiver seven times.
Now let’s dive into Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s analytical profile.
Measurables
6’1″ 200 lbs.
Expected 40-yard dash time: 4.50
Analytic Grades
Each year I use an established analytical process (The WR1 Model) to forecast who the future dynasty elite wide receivers will be. You can find a detailed explanation of the process here. While some of the nine metrics utilized in the model (relative athletic score, film grade, and draft capital) are not yet finalized, we can begin to get a picture of who the players you want to target are.
For players with at least three years of NFL experience, of the top-12 graded incoming prospects in the WR1 model 11 have gone on to have at least one top-24 fantasy season. Therefore, if you receive a top-12 WR1 model grade you have a 91.7% chance of having at least one future top-24 fantasy season. (Note 9 of the 11 have had multiple top-24 seasons with DeVonta Smith likely to make it 10). The lower your score in the model, the less likely you are to have a future top-24 fantasy season. Players graded 13-36 all-time in the model have a 70.8% hit rate. Players graded 37-60 all-time have a 54.2% hit rate. Players graded 61-84 all-time have just a 20.8% hit rate.
Nine metrics contribute to the overall WR1 grade. For the incoming rookie class, we will look at some of the metrics we have available now.
Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt
Receiving yards per team pass attempt is a highly predictive metric for future fantasy success.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’’s best season RYPTPA is 3.25
This is a strong prospect score for RYPTPA. 10 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects and 21 of the top-24 WR1 prospects had a best season RYPTPA above 3.0. Smith-Njigba’s 3.22 mark ranks second in this class. It is especially impressive considering he achieved this as a sophomore while also competing for receiving yards vs Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.
Weighted Dominator
The weighted dominator metric is the player’s share of their team’s touchdowns and receiving yards weighted 80% receiving yards and 20% touchdowns.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s best season-weighted dominator is 30.0%
This is a solid number for Smith-Njigba but not outstanding. Eleven of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects had a dominator above 30%.
Projected Draft Capital
I use the NFL mock draft database to forecast a player’s draft capital ahead of the NFL draft. This is a consensus of the top mock drafters nationwide.
Smith-Njigba is currently mocked 19th overall but is dropping as some of the more prominent mock drafters slot him in the second round.
Early Declare
Eleven of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 scores were early declares. Only Devonta Smith cracked this tier while playing through his senior season. Twenty-two of the top-24 were also early declares. The players who declare early have received input from the NFL that they will be drafted early enough to warrant foregoing their senior season.
Smith-Njigba is an early declare so he passes this part of the test.
Breakout Year
Similar to the early declare metric, breakout year also had 11 of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 score with a first or second-year breakout. The only exception again is DeVonta Smith. It was only Smith’s immense production his Senior year that had him break the top-12 total WR1 score. Smith is the perfect measure of why this model is so accurate. Many analytic-based models did not have Smith as a top prospect because he failed several important metrics. However, the WR1 rating was one of the few that rated him (and Chris Olave) highly. The proof manifested this year with Devonta Smith achieving hit status as a top-24 fantasy WR.
Smith Njigba’s second-year breakout is what you want to see from an elite-level prospect.
PPR PPG Average
This metric measures the prospect’s 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards receiving fantasy scoring on a points-per-game basis in their college career. Ultimately, this is the metric you want to be mirrored for their NFL Careers.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba achieved an average of 14.8 PPR PPG in his college career. With context here, Smith-Njigba barely saw the field as a freshman and didn’t play much of his junior year or this score would have been far higher. He averaged an outstanding 23.8 in his sophomore year.
Nine of the top-12 prospects in the WR1 model all-time had a PPR PPG above 17.0.
Strengths
- Smith-Njigba is a supremely polished route runner.
- He has a high football IQ and is able to find soft spots in the defense.
- Combines soft hands with elite ball-tracking skills.
- Possession-type receiver who will excel in PPR formats.
Weaknesses
- Smith-Njigba has average athleticism.
- He lacks the burst to create big plays after the catch.
Conclusion
The preliminary grade for Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the WR1 model is an outstanding 53.0 which forecasts he has a 91.7% chance to have at least one top-24 fantasy season in his future NFL career. Smith-Njigba is currently ranked as the number-one wide receiver in this class.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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