Here at Dynasty Football Factory, we pride ourselves on being THE destination for all rookie prospect evaluation. Our goal is to give you an edge over your league mates this offseason as we near the NFL Combine, NFL Draft, and your Dynasty Rookie drafts. This particular series is our “Prospect Faceoff” series, where I’ll be comparing similarly valued rookie prospects head-to-head to ultimately determine which player we should prefer for our Dynasty teams. First on the docket is Missouri WR Luther Burden III versus Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka. Let’s take a look at some analytics and my film takeaways and see who our winner is.
Luther Burden III
Luther Burden was considered a Top 2 WR in the 2025 draft class in many Devy circles prior to the 2024 season. The big slot receiver from Mizzou was coming off an electric sophomore campaign, where he racked up 120 targets, 86 receptions, 1,209 yards, and nine touchdowns. It seemed Burden was primed for a monster junior year, but that simply did not come to fruition. Burden saw a significant drop in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns in Year 3, leaving us pondering what went wrong here. Burden had the same QB in Brady Cook throwing him the ball, though Cook’s passing numbers took a hit across the board as well. Maybe it had to do with the departure of RB Cody Shrader, who rushed for over 1,600 yards in 2023 and helped to open up things in the passing game. Regardless, Burden’s NFL stock has taken a hit, and now I’m not so sure he’s a lock to go in Round 1 of the NFL Draft.
Analytically, Burden’s target share dropped from 32.7% in 2023 to 27.4% in 2024, and his yards per route run dropped from 3.29 to 2.32. In terms of fantasy production, Burden averaged 20.3 PPR points per game in 2023, seeing that number dip to 15.7 in 2024. Obviously, his best season numbers are elite, but we need to take note of the fact that his production dropped in every category as a junior.
From a film perspective, Burden looks polished. He has some of the strongest, most reliable hands in college football, and he’s incredibly difficult to bring down in the open field. His combination of strength, size, and speed makes him a major threat in the YAC department every time he touches the football. He’s not as twitchy as someone like Travis Hunter, but he knows how to create separation consistently. Burden was used all over the field but primarily in the slot. While this factor could drop Burden’s draft capital, from a fantasy perspective, he should be fine in PPR formats. Plenty of highly productive NFL receivers have operated out of the slot in recent years.
Emeka Egbuka
Emeka Egbuka has put together a very respectable senior season, and he’s continuing to add to those totals as Ohio State heads to the semifinals of the CFB Playoffs. Egbuka has dealt with elite competition throughout his college career, playing alongside guys like Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr, and Jeremiah Smith. He’s seemingly always played second fiddle, but the competition level needs to be taken into consideration when we’re evaluating Egbuka as a future NFL prospect. There’s a chance he gets to the NFL and finds himself in a situation where he has the least competition he’s seen in four years.
Egbuka’s best season actually came as a true sophomore in 2022, posting 106 targets, 74 receptions, 1,151 yards, and 10 touchdowns. This was partially due to JSN being injured for the majority of the season, but still, posting these numbers as an underclassman at “WR U” cannot be understated. Like Burden, Egbuka is primarily a slot receiver but has the ability to line up out wide. Egbuka may not have quite the hands Burden does, but he is more than reliable, posting a sub-5% drop rate in each of the past two seasons. Ebguka has seen nearly a 27% target rate this season and 2.60 yards per route run, both very impressive marks. His best marks in these two categories were in 2022, with a 27.7% target rate and 3.01 yards per route run.
On tape, Egbuka has noticeable long speed and short-area quickness. He’s a high IQ receiver and a nuanced route runner and is not afraid to get physical and block. Egbuka is going to be one of those wide receivers that NFL coaches will love; he does all the little things right.
And the Winner is…
This is a close one, but I’m taking Egbuka over Burden as it stands today. I think Egbuka has slightly higher odds of hearing his name called Day 1, and I see fewer red flags in his prospect profile. Egbuka dealt with some injuries in 2023, which hindered his production, but he had a nice bounce-back season alongside some really great receivers in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Burden and Egbuka are similar in a number of ways. Both are physical slot receivers with high athleticism and YAC ability. The one positive Burden has over Egbuka is that he’s an early declare. Outside of that, I prefer Egbuka’s profile slightly and feel he has a higher floor/ceiling combination. I wouldn’t be shocked if Burden turned out to be a bust (relative to his cost; he’s going to produce), but with Egbuka, I can’t see him being any lower than a Top 36 receiver. Regarding ceiling, I can see high-end WR2 upside with him. Both should be mid-to-late first-round selections in our Dynasty rookie drafts this offseason and should be considered Top 5 WRs in the class.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
