It’s been some time since I put pen to paper per se, but I’ve been playing actor and director, focusing most of my energy on building up the Dynasty Football Factory YouTube page. So I’m dusting off the keyboard and dropping a few film-based dynasty rookie sleepers and fades.
Anyone who follows me and my content knows I do my best to remain grounded and reasoned in my analysis unless we’re talking about Charlie Jones. Keep my man’s name out your mother******* mouth!
My evaluations are based on balancing the most statistically relevant data points AND detailed film study. Both are equally important, and just like we can find improbabilities and outliers in a spreadsheet, we can do the same if we’ve performed thorough, standardized film analysis. Over the last few years, I’ve refined my film evaluation process and found some success in the margins by applying my findings.
This article will focus on identifying a few “sleepers”, if those even exist anymore, and “fades” while providing reasoning mainly based on my film evaluation. Each position is graded on several traits on a scale from 1-10, but for this article, each has been categorized into buckets of elite, great, average, and below average for ease of understanding. The bucket will remain empty if no traits apply.
SLEEPERS
WILL MALLORY, TE, IND (ADP: Undrafted)
Will Mallory is one of the most underappreciated prospects of the 2023 draft class. Mallory enters the NFL on the older side, at age 23 and a five-year senior, yet he still possesses an intriguing profile. He posted a relative athletic score (RAS) of 9.05 out of 10, and while no metric holds the key to predicting success, a strong RAS Score is highly correlated to top-tier fantasy production at the tight end position. Mallory also has football flowing through his veins. His father, Mike Mallory, is the assistant special teams coach for the Denver Broncos, and his grandfather, Bill Mallory, holds the record for most wins (66) as head coach for the Indiana Hoosiers. Obviously, these facts don’t directly impact his ability to play football, but it shows how ingrained football has been in his life since he exited the womb.
Mallory was a moderately productive player for the Miami Hurricanes, but his tape was certainly more impressive than his year-end stat line. He exhibits above-average hands and after-the-catch ability while proving to be a powerful blocker (tied for 6th in pass blocking per PFF). He also showed good route technique and elusiveness for his size at 6’5’ 240 lbs. The Indianapolis Colts have a deep tight end room, yet they keep adding to it, which indicates they are looking for more consistency at the position. He’s more than worth a dart throw considering he’s going undrafted, according to Bulletproof ADP.
GRINDING THE TAPE:
ELITE
GREAT
- Hands
- YAC Ability
- Blocking
AVERAGE
- Route Running
- Elusiveness
BELOW AVERAGE
- Separation
BRENTON STRANGE, TE, GB (ADP: 4.10)
While Will Mallory may go down as one of the most underappreciated prospects in the 2023 class, Brenton Strange isn’t too far behind with second-round NFL Draft capital and an ADP of 4.10! Strange also posted a RAS Score above 9 – 9.09 out of 10, good for second in the class. Again, this isn’t intended to be a magic number predicting success, but it’s an indicator we see in the profiles of the elite NFL tight ends. It should be noted once more that Strange was selected in the second round of the NFL draft and is going nearly undrafted in rookie drafts. The math ain’t mathing, as the young folks would say.
Brenton Strange displays above-average route running for his 6’4” 245 lbs. frame and quality hands, as well as an adequate ability to separate and create yards after the catch. He shows good balance, given his capacity to consistently handle blocking assignments. I’d like to see him elevate his game a bit more in terms of elusiveness, but his contact balance and strength allow him to drag defenders for extra yards when he can’t evade them. We must remember the best of the best at the tight end position were late-round rookie draft picks. Don’t shy away from Mallory and Strange, considering they are virtually free.
GRINDING THE TAPE:
ELITE
GREAT
- Route Running
- Hands
AVERAGE
- Separation
- Elusiveness
- YAC Ability
- Blocking
BELOW AVERAGE
CHARLIE JONES, WR, CIN (ADP: 5.08)
I’ve been talking up Charlie Jones since at least March of 2023, and I feel vindicated seeing that the Bengals felt he was talented enough to spend a fourth-round pick on, when they have a wide-receiver room filled with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Jones’ late declare status will negatively impact his profile and dynasty value, but he was also a late breakout which is why he’s a complete afterthought to most analysts. That said, he posted a 110 catch, 1,361 yards, 12 touchdown season as a senior. That’s impressive, no matter the age.
Charlie Jones exhibits near-elite route running ability and extremely reliable hands, as well as a good release and burst through his routes. He can separate with his suddenness at the top of the route rather than with strength. My biggest knock on Jones is he lacks elusiveness and change of direction after the catch. He’s a refined route runner with a great opportunity to develop for a year and take over the Tyler Boyd role when he likely leaves in free agency. There may even be an opportunity for him to see the field this year if one of the top three Bengals receivers were to suffer an injury. Charlie Jones is a steal at 5.08.
GRINDING THE TAPE:
ELITE
GREAT
- Hands
- Route Running
AVERAGE
- Separation
- Beating Press (Release)
- Burst
- YAC Ability
BELOW AVERAGE
- Elusiveness
PARKER WASHINGTON, WR, JAX (ADP: 5.01)
Washington was a Devy darling before face-planting in 2022 for the Penn State Nittany Lions. It’s worth noting the quarterback situation was less than ideal with Sean Clifford at the helm. I don’t think we can place all the blame on Washington, who went on to be drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the sixth round of the NFL Draft, nearly a death sentence for potential fantasy production.
I know the odds are against him, but I’m still a believer in Parker Washington’s talent. He was one of the most reliable receivers in the class, displaying great concentration and attack at the catch point. He’s built like a running back and possesses contact balance like one too. Washington has a great release and exhibits pacing through his routes, but doesn’t get much separation, lacking size and some suddenness within his routes. And while he’s great after the catch, you’d like to see more lateral quickness to evade defenders. It’s crowded in Jacksonville, but I think he brings a slightly different skillset out of the slot than any other player on the roster, so he could carve out a role if the Jaguars see what I see. I’ve witnessed Washington go undrafted in a few leagues, so you can potentially claim him off waivers post-draft.
GRINDING THE TAPE:
ELITE
GREAT
- Hands
- YAC Ability
AVERAGE
- Route Running
- Beating Press (Release)
- Burst
BELOW AVERAGE
- Separation
- Elusiveness
DEUCE VAUGHN, RB, DAL (ADP: 3.10)
Deuce Vaughn is easily one of the coolest stories of the 2023 NFL Draft. Being drafted to the team your father works for is a feeling that is probably hard to put into words. If your first thought is “nepotism”, think again. His father removed himself from the scouting process when the team would review Deuce’s profile so everyone would be on a level playing field. The bottom line is this kid can play. Realizing he’s just 5’6” and 170 lbs. makes it even more impressive that he’s been able to perform at a level adequate for the NFL. Vaughn’s college production looks like that of someone two times his size. He posted over 3,600 yards on the ground and 1,200 through the air in just three seasons. He would have been a day-one NFL Draft pick if he was three inches taller.
Vaughn is a great value at an ADP of 3.10, given he’s potentially the direct backup to Tony Pollard in Dallas and illustrates great burst and elusiveness, as well as above-average receiving ability. He’s an explosive runner who also shows impressive contact balance for his 5’6” frame but lacks some vision in between the tackles. He’s unlikely to ever get bell-cow-type usage but is certainly a dual-threat running back who can carve out a role for himself on the Dallas Cowboys and in the NFL.
GRINDING THE TAPE:
ELITE
GREAT
- Footwork
- Receiving Ability
- Routes
- Elusiveness
- Burst
AVERAGE
- Contact Balance
BELOW AVERAGE
- Vision
EVAN HULL, RB, IND (ADP: 4.05)
I’m struggling to understand why we, as a community, are allowing Jonathan Taylor‘s direct backup to fall into the fourth round of rookie drafts. Hull is no slouch, either. He was immensely productive at Northwestern. He earned over 400 rushing attempts in his final two seasons for nearly 2,000 yards while adding over 800 yards through the air. Hull caught 55 passes his final season at Northwestern, proving he’s a reliable pass catcher out of the backfield, something we know the Indianapolis Colts value. Truthfully, I believe he’s an upgrade to Nyheim Hines, as he’s every bit the receiver Hines is, but adds much more between the tackles. He profiles as a near-perfect backup to Taylor based on his skill set.
Hull’s time at Northwestern proved his ability to handle a full workload, even though he likely never sees such usage. His best qualities are vision between the tackles, contact balance, and receiving ability. Above-average footwork contributes to his ability to make defenders miss in tight spaces. His feet are always moving; he has a real motor. Hull ran every single NFL Combine drill to the end zone, something no other player did. I doubt the 5th round draft capital will hold this kid back. I want as much Evan Hull as I can get in the fourth round of my rookie drafts. Jonathan Taylor’s backup is at least worth that.
GRINDING THE TAPE:
ELITE
GREAT
- Contact Balance
- Vision
- Footwork
- Receiving Ability
AVERAGE
- Elusiveness
- Burst
BELOW AVERAGE
- Route Running
FADES
KENDRE MILLER, RB, NO (ADP: 2.03)
I don’t want it to come off as if I believe Kendre Miller is a terrible player. I just don’t quite see what all the hype is about. I think he shows flashes of explosiveness, and it’s easy to get excited about that when packed into a 6’0” 205 lbs. frame. Although I see those flashes, I think he lacks breakaway speed and profiles as more of a grinder. Footwork is extremely important in terms of stability, and Miller’s narrow gait prevents him from gaining optimal balance. I also have questions about Miller’s vision. He displayed a tendency to work back into contact when open lanes were available.
The flashes are certainly enough to get excited about, given the third-round draft capital and juicy landing spot in New Orleans, but the 2.03 ADP is simply too rich for my blood. The other options in that range aren’t all that appetizing, but I’d much rather trade back to take multiple shots on other running backs in the late second or early third round if possible.
GRINDING THE TAPE:
ELITE
GREAT
- Burst
- Contact Balance
AVERAGE
- Elusiveness
- Vision
- Footwork
- Receiving Ability
BELOW AVERAGE
- Route Running
RASHEE RICE, WR, KC (ADP: 2.05)
I don’t get and never have gotten the Rashee Rice interest. He’s not a very refined route runner and concentration drops show up all over the tape. He’s a big guy who can move well, but not that well. Rice is more of a physical receiver who creates separation with strength rather than with sharp routes or quickness in tight spaces. I wouldn’t describe him as elusive, and he lacks above-average ability after the catch, though he does look for contact, which again highlights his physicality as a strength of his game.
I simply don’t see how Rice elevates over Kadarius Toney or even Skyy Moore. I think Kansas City has about five potential WR2s or WR3s, but nobody that threatens to reach anywhere near a fantasy WR1 ceiling unless DeAndre Hopkins enters the fold. 2.05 is just too much of an investment into a player with so much development ahead of him on an offense that spreads the ball so much. Travis Kelce was the only player to exceed an 18% target share. JuJu Smith-Schuster was next closest with 17.3% which resulted in WR38(PPG) type production. 17.3% is a share Rashee Rice could only dream of as a rookie let alone full-time player in the KC offense. The reality just doesn’t seem to match the hype. I don’t believe he can be efficient enough to return on the investment. I like Marvin Mims much better at the end of the second round or a shot on Cedric Tillman in the third round.
GRINDING THE TAPE:
ELITE
GREAT
AVERAGE
- Separation
- Beating Press (Release)
- Route Running
- YAC Ability
BELOW AVERAGE
- Elusiveness
- Hands
- Burst
CONCLUSION
None of the players listed exhibit elite traits, but that’s why they are sleepers or fades.
Historically, the majority of players highlighted in this article (or in a similar draft range) won’t pan out, and that’s okay. Most of the sleepers are nearly free or extremely acquirable at the current price, and there are plenty of other options where you would have to reach for the fades. With that in mind, these are the players I’m looking to target and avoid in the later rounds of the 2023 rookie drafts.
Thank you for reading. If you have any thoughts or questions and would like to discuss them, you can reach out to me on Twitter @WillieBeamanDFF. #DFFArmy
