It has become common knowledge in the Dynasty community that one should either compete for a championship or try to acquire future assets and secure a higher draft spot. While many can tell when it is time to “blow it up” and begin rebuilding on a team that was once a contender, the part often unmentioned is when to go from a rebuilding team to winning the championship. I have experienced the joy of earning the 1.01 as my rookie pick and winning a championship the following season, but I have also seen many teams stuck in the perpetual rebuild. Their roster and assets look great in any roster evaluation tool, but we aren’t here to have good-looking rosters. We are here to win championships. So how do we turn the corner?
Becoming a Contender
If you have been in a rebuild for a couple of years, you should have a bunch of draft picks either this year, next year, or perhaps both. Obviously, 1.01 is just adding Bijan Robinson, which will immediately improve your position as a contender. But a lot of times draft picks are not incredibly helpful in year one. The good news is these are some of the most flexible assets in dynasty fantasy football. My preferred method of turning the corner is, when it is time to make the pivot, to use these draft picks to acquire the talent I need at the positions I need. The mental process you need to evaluate is with the current assets you have. Can you put together a contending roster? This is the hard part right here. I will do my best to outline my basic thinking. Still, different league settings, roster sizes, flex spots, double TE, all flex, and any other roster configurations can make roster evaluation very difficult. You also need to consider how strong the best teams are in your league. Can we fill out our roster with our given assets?
Before we start breaking down what we need at each position, the trading strategy here is huge. If you can find someone ready to blow the whole thing up, you can make some deals for assets that will immediately help your roster. Buying veterans is the quickest way to turn the corner. Take the “age discount” to fill out your roster with a young core already in place to fill in holes and add depth. When players are added to the trade block as trade bait, make a probing offer (not a terrible one, people will hate trading with you). You would be surprised how often the deal gets done or a counter comes that you are happy to take. Making these moves before your team is ready to compete can have disastrous results. It can set your rebuild back entirely, but missing out on a potential championship window is a disaster as well. The roster evaluation is so critical before you make these moves. Treat draft capital as flexible pieces that can be added to any position you need help at.
Quarterback
Let’s start with the quarterback position. If you are in a 1QB league, let me stop you right now. You have what you need. Trade a second-round pick in 2024 (yours, since it will be the last pick of the 2nd round) and get some aging veteran that still puts up points. The Superflex discussion is a lot more intriguing. I generally like to have three QBs for my contending teams. Two I count on weekly, with the third either being a young developmental guy or some back-end starter for his actual NFL team. Obviously, having three studs would be ideal, but it may make sense to trade into a lesser QB3 to help fix some other needs or depth issues elsewhere. If you have been rebuilding, this position should already be filled. It should be one of the first positions you address when rebuilding because of the long shelf life of the position. It is also a position that, if you have a pick between 1.02 and 1.06, you may be able to address on draft day in this class. Of the QBs in this class, Anthony Richardson is the only one I would feel comfortable having as a starter on a contending team, but Byrce Young and C.J. Stroud perfectly fit what I am looking for in my QB3 on my roster. Trading for stud QBs in Superflex costs a ton; even middle-of-the-road guys will cost a 1st at the minimum. I prefer to have this position sorted out before I start trying to turn the corner. If you must trade for one because you drafted Zach Wilson and Malik Willis in recent years, here are some guys you can go after.
QBs to target (QB1/2): Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Geno Smith
QBs to target (QB3): Jordan Love, Sam Howell, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo
Running Back
The running back position has an entirely different approach. This is a position that I have entered the offseason with no real startable running backs before I turned the corner. If I have the draft capital to get a guy, this is also a position where I will just draft him versus trying to trade for one. There are different types of running backs: true fantasy starters, reasonable flex plays, and handcuffs/backups. League construction is essential here. Some leagues require one RB, and some require three. I want the sum of the guys I have from those first two groups to be greater than or equal to the number of guys I am required to start at the position plus one. I don’t mind having a couple more on top of that, especially once we start considering our flex spots.
I know a lot of people want two big-time studs, and if you have them, then great, but I have adopted more of a zero/hero RB strategy in all formats. If you do not have any true stud RBs and are just rolling out thirrd down backs that get you 10-18 points per game, you must ensure you have a significant edge at your other positions. I also like picking up as many backup RBs and handcuffs as possible after I have my main guys in place. They are cheap as can be, and often the RBs that are finishing in the top 12 in playoff weeks are guys that were backups in Week 1. In this year’s draft, I think we have two stud RBs; then, the rest are all backups or potential starters until further notice. I’m not counting them toward my quota, so to speak. We have already alluded to Bijan being the 1.01. I am okay with taking Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.02 if you have no other positional needs. If you can trade back a spot or two to a QB-needy team to get more value, by all means, do that. But if it doesn’t work out that way, take the guy that helps you win a championship, even if it’s “poor value.”
RBs to target (starters): Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs
RBs to target (handcuffs and backups): Samaje Perine, Alexander Mattison, Zamir White, David Montgomery
Wide Receiver
The wide receiver position is a lot like the quarterback. If you have not addressed it at the top, you may not be ready to come out of your rebuild. It also has some similarities with running back as well. I want the number of reasonable starters to be greater than or equal to the number I am required to start plus one. I may need more WRs and RBs when we get to the number of flex plays I am required to have, but we will get to flex plays in a minute. Unlike the running back, though, I am not addressing the need for the position in the draft when considering contending right now. The most likely WR in the 2023 class to help this year is Jordan Addison, but should only be taken at 1.07 or later. I prefer Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a prospect and will not take Addison over any of the consensus top 6 picks. I am not willing to drop a tier for him if I am picking at 1.06 or higher. I still feel that it is a bit suspect to count on Addison in my starting rotation at this stage, but I think he has the best chance to be relevant of the rookie WRs this season. WR is deep in the modern era of fantasy football, with every team utilizing so many of them. Finding cheap depth pieces is very easy at the WR position. Even mid-round 2nds will often get me a guy I can start as a flex play on a week-to-week basis. Some older studs can even be afforded for late firsts. You have likely already addressed WR during your rebuild, but adding a big-time stud discounted due to age is a great way to add horsepower to your fantasy lineup.
WRs to target: Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks, DeAndre Hopkins
Tight End
All tight ends are Travis Kelce, or they are meh. All jokes aside, no move is necessary if you have one of the following guys: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert, George Kittle, Pat Freiermuth, or Darren Waller. The math changes a bit for multiple tight-end leagues, but with anyone other than those guys, I would like multiple bodies to have a better chance of at least one of them hitting. Pick your favorites from the next batch of guys. Do not expect much from rookie tight ends, even in a good spot. Their development usually takes a year or two. This is a year where if you are turning the corner, Travis Kelce could be had. I understand you likely will be holding the bag when his value drops, but the single positional advantage he gives you is the largest of any position in fantasy football. There are still reasonable buys, though, if you want to make a move now.
Travis Kelce’s to target: Travis Kelce. End of list
Other TEs to target: Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Darren Waller
Flex
We do have another “position” to consider that we have referenced but not fully addressed- the flex. Even if you have the RB and WR position requirements met, you may need more to fill out a roster. I know of some leagues that do not even run a single RB or WR spot but instead run a certain number of flex players. In general, I want to fill out my starting lineup and then have at least two players I can rotate in during bye weeks and injuries, but I would feel much more comfortable with that number being closer to three, four, or even five. Depth is critical to championship runs, as the NFL season can get brutal with injuries. This is especially true at the end of the season, where if a team is not in the playoff run, they will sit a guy at 85% if there is nothing to play for. Therefore, I typically prefer stacking my extra flex spots with WRs and then filling my bench with those backup/handcuff running backs that I may not count as part of the rotation but have a massive upside in the later part of the season.
“Turning the Corner” strategy is critical in going from drafting early to holding up the trophy/belt/Leaguesafe payout at the end of the season. Do not be afraid of losing trades during this period. Spoiler alert, you are going to miss out on some trades. The goal is to win championships, not win trades.
Thanks so much for reading. If you want to discuss more, reach out to me on Twitter @DougHarrelson. Thanks also for your membership to DFF! For those signed up for an annual membership, you can always reach the rest of the DFF team and me on our Discord server! Exclusively for annual memberships only. Sign up today!
