Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Measurables

5’10″,  175 lbs.

Expected 40-yard dash time: 4.4

Flowers was a three-star recruit out of high school.

Flower’s slight stature is likely to relegate him to the slot in the NFL where he also spent the majority of his time at Boston College.

Analytic Grades

Each year I use an established analytical process (The WR1 Model) to forecast who the future dynasty elite wide receivers will be. You can find a detailed explanation of the process here. While some of the nine metrics utilized in the model (relative athletic score, film grade, and draft capital) are not yet finalized, we can begin to get a picture of who the players you want to target are. 

For players with at least three years of NFL experience, of the top 12 graded incoming prospects in the WR1 model 11 have gone on to have at least one top-24 fantasy season.  Therefore, if you receive a top 12 WR1 model grade you have a 91.7% chance of having at least one future top 24 fantasy season. (Note 9 of the 11 have had multiple top-24 seasons with DeVonta Smith likely to make it 10). The lower your score in the model, the less likely you are to have a future top-24 fantasy season. 

The players graded 13-36 all-time in the model have a 70.8% hit rate. Players graded 37-60 all-time have a 54.2% hit rate. Players graded 61-84 all-time have just a 20.8% hit rate.

Nine metrics contribute to the overall WR1 grade. For the incoming rookie class, we will look at those metrics we have available now.

Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt

Receiving yards per team pass attempt is a highly predictive metric for future fantasy success. 

Zay Flowers’s best season RYPTPA is 2.45. 

This is just an average prospect score for RYPTPA. 10 of the top 12 all-time WR1 prospects and 21 of the top 24 WR1 prospects had a best season RYPTPA above 3.0.

Weighted Dominator

The weighted dominator metric is the player’s share of their team’s touchdowns and receiving yards weighted 80% receiving yards and 20% touchdowns. 

Zay Flowers’s best season weighted dominator is 40.7%

This is a very impressive number. 11 of the top 12 all-time WR1 prospects had a dominator above 30%. Only 5 of those top 12 had a dominator above 40%.

Projected Draft Capital

I use the NFL mock draft database to forecast a player’s draft capital ahead of the NFL draft. This is a consensus of the top mock drafters nationwide. 

Zay Flowers is projected to be drafted in round two, 40th overall. To have more than a 54.2% chance of having a future top-24 fantasy season a wide receiver needs to be drafted in the first two rounds.

Early Declare

11 of the top 12 players in the all-time WR1 scores were early declares. Only DeVonta Smith cracked this tier while playing through his senior season. 22 of the top 24 were also early declares. The players who declare early have received input from the NFL that they will be drafted early enough to warrant foregoing their senior season.

Zay Flowers did not declare early.

While it is certainly possible to achieve a top-24 fantasy season your chances are greatly enhanced if you declared early.

PPR PPG Average

This metric measures the prospect’s 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards receiving fantasy scoring on a points-per-game basis in their college career. This is ultimately the exact metric you want to be mirrored for their NFL Careers.

Zay Flowers had a career PPR PPG of 15.1. Slot receivers tend to have a higher weight towards the reception side of points per game vs the receiving yards.

Nine of the top twelve prospects in the WR1 model all-time had a PPR PPG above 17.0.

Strengths

Flowers is a dangerous receiver in space with the agility to force missed tackles.

He is a dependable chain mover type with arrogant hands.

He thrives in catch-and-run situations.

Weaknesses

Flowers’s size will relegate him to a slot role as it will be challenging for him to win outside.

Conclusion

The preliminary grade for Zay Flowers in the WR1 model forecasts he has a 54.2% chance to have at least one top-24 fantasy season in his future NFL career.

I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting

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