When analyzing wide receiver prospects, analysts such as myself, like to check boxes when a player eclipses a designated threshold for a certain metric. No prospect in this class checked more of these boxes across all metrics than Josh Downs. Downs was an uber-producer during his time at Chapel Hill. When Sam Howell or Drake Maye needed a big play, Downs was the unquestioned target. In this article, I will take you through the numbers and display why you should be targeting Josh Downs in your dynasty rookie drafts.
Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
Measurables
5’10″ 175 lbs.
Expected 40-yard dash time: 4.35
Analytic Grades
Each year I use an established analytical process (The WR1 Model) to forecast who the future dynasty elite wide receivers will be. While some of the nine metrics utilized in the model (relative athletic score, film grade, and draft capital) are not yet finalized, we can begin to get a picture of who the players you want to target are.
For players with at least three years of NFL experience, of the top-12 graded incoming prospects in the WR1 model 11 have gone on to have at least one top-24 fantasy season. Therefore, if you receive a top-12 WR1 model grade you have a 91.7% chance of having at least one future top-24 fantasy season. (Note 9 of the 11 have had multiple top-24 seasons with DeVonta Smith likely to make it 10). The lower your score in the model, the less likely you are to have a future top-24 fantasy season. Players graded 13-36 all-time in the model have a 70.8% hit rate. Players graded 37-60 all-time have a 54.2% hit rate. Players graded 61-84 all-time have just a 20.8% hit rate.
Nine metrics contribute to the overall WR1 grade. For the incoming rookie class, we will look at some of the metrics we have available now.
Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt
Receiving yards per team pass attempt is a highly predictive metric for future fantasy success.
Josh Downs’s best season RYPTPA is 3.52.
This is the highest score for RYPTPA of any prospect in this class. 10 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects and 21 of the top-24 WR1 prospects had the best season RYPTPA above 3.0.
Weighted Dominator
The weighted dominator metric is the player’s share of their team’s touchdowns and receiving yards weighted 80% receiving yards and 20% touchdowns.
Josh Downs’s best season weighted dominator is 38.3%.
This is another elite number for Downs. 11 of the top-12 all-time WR1 prospects had a dominator above 30%. Downs 38.3% dominator bested 7 of the dominator marks for the all-time top-12 WR1 overall prospects.
Projected Draft Capital
I use the NFL mock draft database to forecast a player’s draft capital ahead of the NFL draft. This is a consensus of the top mock drafters nationwide.
Downs is projected to be a second-rounder. NFL teams don’t as highly covet slot receivers as outside (x), so even the elite ones have an uphill battle to get first-round draft capital.
Early Declare
Eleven of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 scores were early declares. Only DeVonta Smith cracked this tier while playing through his senior season. 22 of the top 24 were also early declared. The players who declare early have received input from the NFL that they will be drafted early enough to warrant foregoing their senior season.
Josh Downs is an early declare and checks yet another box here.
Breakout Year
Similar to the early declare metric, breakout year also had 11 of the top-12 players in the all-time WR1 score with a first or second-year breakout. The only exception again is DeVonta Smith. It was only Smith’s immense production his Senior year that had him break the top-12 total WR1 score. Smith is the perfect measure of why this model is so accurate. Many analytic-based models did not have Smith as a top prospect because he failed several important metrics. However, the WR1 rating was one of the few that rated him (and Chris Olave) highly. The proof manifested this year with Devonta Smith achieving hit status as a top-24 fantasy WR.
Josh Downs had his breakout as a sophomore. This is yet another box checked for Downs in his pristine analytical profile.
PPR PPG Average
This metric measures the prospect’s 1 point per reception, 1 point per 10 yards receiving fantasy scoring on a points-per-game basis in their college career. This is ultimately the exact metric you want to be mirrored for their NFL Careers.
Josh Downs posted an excellent 20.8 PPR fantasy points per game in his college career.
This ranks Downs second in this class for this metric. Nine of the top twelve prospects in the WR1 model all-time had a PPR PPG above 17.0.
Film Grade
The WR1 process was a pioneer in incorporating a film grade into the overall analytical prospect score and remains one of the few that incorporate a film grade. The film is an important evaluation tool and applies appropriate balance to the analytical score. I trust Lance Zierlein due to his strong history of accuracy and I utilize his grading scores in the WR1 model.
Downs has Zierlein’s second-highest film grade in this class at 6.41.
Strengths
- Utilizes speed variance effectively to gain separation
- Twitchy, athletic prospect with excellent agility
Weaknesses
- Could struggle with press coverage at NFL level due to lack of size
- Weak blocker
Conclusion
The preliminary grade for Josh Downs in the WR1 model is 46.0 which ties him for second in this class and forecasts he has a 70.8% chance to have at least one top-24 fantasy season in his future NFL career. Downs is going as a second-rounder in dynasty rookie drafts behind the big three of Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Quentin Johnston. These are all mid-first-rounders currently for dynasty rookie drafts. Downs represents the best current value of any wide receiver. I would take him over Quentin Johnston personally but you won’t need to.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball #AlwaysBeBuilding #NFL #NFLDraft #NFLTransactions #NFLTrades #AlwaysBeScouting
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