Rookie scouting season is approaching and what better way to prepare than to get a head start on your league mates and get to work before the NFL season ends? In this series, I will go through my process and scout each of the potential incoming rookie QBs for the 2023 class. My process is mainly through an analytical view. This means I am thinking about hit rates, range of outcomes, and probabilities. I favor these things over whether I think the player is talented because that is not only subjective but also difficult. This consistent, numbers-only process allows me to play the odds and hit more than I miss with these rookies. So follow along as I go through Florida quarterback, Anthony Richardson.
Background
Anthony Richardson was a three-year player and one-year starter at Florida. In his latest season, he turned heads with his rushing ability but was no slouch when passing either. In his final season, Richardson was given 103 carries which he took for 654 yards and nine touchdowns. He also threw for 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns in twelve games. These stats are not gaudy, but they are not bad either. Richardson’s biggest red flag is however his passing ability. While he is not a horrendous passer, he is also not good. This could end up negatively affecting his draft stock as well, which is another red flag. Richardson was 6-7 as a starter in 2022 and he lost the Las Vegas Bowl 30-3, so it is safe to say Richardson is not a proven winner. He lacks experience, passing prowess, a dominant record or stats, and the potential for top-tier draft equity. With all of that in consideration, let’s see what my analytics say.
Analytic Profile
There are five big stats I look at when prospecting QBs: best season (BS) yards per attempt (YPA), BS completion percentage (comp%), college career TD rate (TDR), college career passer rating (PR), and BS rush yards per game (RY/G). I tested all of these stats vs all QBs drafted since 2012 and their NFL fantasy points scored to determine not only which stats are most impactful but also which values lead to elite fantasy producers.
First up is BS YPA which is the least impactful of the stats I look at but important nonetheless. Richardson achieved a mark of 7.8 in 2022, which ranks far under my elite threshold of 8.9. This is a miss in my model, and Richardson is not off to a good start. Next, Anthony had a BS Comp% of 53.8% also in his 2022 season. This number is the lowest of any QB in my database, which goes back to 2012, this is a very poor number. Comp% is one step above YPA and is the next most important stat I look at, Anthony misses both of these and neither has even been close. The next most predictive stat I use is career PR. Richardson has earned a mark of 133.6 over his short career, which also does not reach my elite mark of 150. That would place him in the 20th percentile of players in my database, another very poor metric for Richardson. The next stat in terms of importance is BS RY/G, here is where Anthony Richardson shines. He earned a mark of 50.7 which is the second-best in the class. This mark is needed for a vastly increased potential of elite fantasy scoring ceilings. Lastly, the most impactful metric I use seems to be career TDR. Richardson had a mark of 6.1 in college which does not hit my mark of 6.7, but it is enough to receive partial credit in my model as a “half-hit”. So he receives some points in the formula for this stat, just not full points but it also is not low enough to hurt him. Richardson missed all of the passing metrics, hit the rushing metric, and was close enough for partial credit in the most important stat. The key with Richardson will end up being draft capital/situation. He is currently a tier-three prospect in my model but, draft capital could bump him up into tier-two.
(I use the 💩 emoji when the stats are around the 25th percentile or worse)
Analytical Comps
Here is a short list of players who had a similar pre-draft score in my model to Anthony Richardson: Sam Ehlinger, Kellen Mond, Daniel Jones, Lamar Jackson, John Wolford, Joshua Dobbs, Dak Prescott, and Jacoby Brissett.
Here is an image showcasing more direct analytical comps in my database to Richardson:
I currently have Richardson at the bottom of my second tier of QBs, behind guys like Will Levis and Hendon Hooker. He will be a very polarizing prospect in dynasty this year. He is a poor passer, but a good runner, and has shown flashes in college. There is a reason he comps to Lamar Jackson and Daniel Jones but also Sam Ehlinger, Kellen Mond, and players you have never heard of. He has a low floor, but a very high ceiling, and depending on cost is usually better to chase that ceiling. As I dig deeper into Richardson and the other prospects my ranking will solidify. But for now, I imagine he will be a mid to early second-round pick in Superflex rookie drafts. If he does get drafted in round one in the NFL draft though, he will likely rise to the early second in rookie drafts, and potentially even the late first.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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