PAST PRODUCTION
Michael Gallup’s college football career began at Butler Community College. As a freshman in 2014, he dominated the competition and led the team in receiving. Unfortunately, Gallup missed most of his sophomore season with an ankle injury before transferring to Colorado State University for his junior season. There, he posted back-to-back seasons of at least 1,250 yards. Gallup’s recorded breakout age of 20.5 is relatively late, but his 98th-percentile College Target Share and 75th-percentile College Dominator reflect a truly dominant finish to his college football career.
Michael Gallup was selected by the Dallas Cowboys in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He had a quiet rookie season with just 33 receptions for 507 yards and two TDs. However, Gallup truly broke out in 2019, posting 66 receptions for 1,107 yards and six TDs in just 14 games. He finished as the WR17 in PPG and his dynasty value skyrocketed.
Michael Gallup was unable to build on his success in 2020 due to a series of unfortunate circumstances. First and foremost, the team drafted CeeDee Lamb in the first round, who commanded nearly 18% of the team’s targets as a rookie (check out my profile on Lamb here). Gallup also had to deal with the loss of Dak Prescott in Week 5 and a Catchable Target Rate that ranked outside the top 100. He finished the season with 59 receptions for 843 yards and five TDs.
2021 OUTLOOK
Heading into 2021, Michael Gallup’s price has dropped precipitously. He finished 2020 as the WR38 (WR50 in PPG) in what I can only describe as an absolute worst-case scenario. Yet, his current ADP on FantasyPros is WR44. Wait…what? Let’s review the facts here. The Cowboys have added zero target competition, Dak Prescott is returning from his broken ankle, and the team projects to be one of the most pass-heavy in the NFL, but somehow Gallup is actually going to be worse in 2021?
You should absolutely be drafting Michael Gallup at his current cost. Dak Prescott is one of a few quarterbacks that we should expect to throw for over 5,000 yards with the new 17-game schedule, so Gallup doesn’t even need a tremendously high target share to beat his ADP. Remember, Teddy Bridgewater was able to support three top-30 WRs in 2020 with just 15 passing TDs and fewer than 250 passing yards per game because those WRs accounted for 66% of the team’s targets. You can expect a similar distribution in Dallas but with a massive volume boost.
DYNASTY ANALYSIS
If you can believe it, Michael Gallup is also a bargain in dynasty, and you should be looking to acquire him before his value rebounds. Gallup will be a 25-year-old free agent following the 2021 season with a great opportunity to sign elsewhere and once again become a top-two target in an offense. If he does return to the Cowboys, there’s a good chance that Amari Cooper could be traded or released based on the structure of his five-year contract with the team. Either way, Gallup should be in line for more opportunities in 2022 and beyond, and we already know that he has the talent to make the most of it.
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