As the newest ranking team member here at DFF, I have asked myself this question quite a bit over the past couple of weeks: Who should I rank higher? These lead to fantastic conversations in league, text, and social media chats. The back and forth is where some of the richest discussions of fantasy football can occur. In particular, in the Dynasty space where a player’s value could vary depending on if the team is a contender or rebuilding, and also on positional need. Today’s discussion is not easily solved by either of those metrics though. All three of these guys are talented young WRs that work well whether you are contending now or looking at the long-term picture. I would be happy to have a roster with any one of them or even better all three of them but in a startup, where would I go? Let’s dig into these incredibly talented WRs.
Tee Higgins (WR – CIN)
I decided to start with the oldest and most experienced of the group, Tee Higgins. After a stellar college career at Clemson playing with Trevor Lawrence he was drafted to the Bengals to play with the quarterback he played against in his final college game, Joe Burrow. After a promising rookie season, the Bengals added another weapon in Ja’Marr Chase to the offense. The entire offense exploded and Tee Higgins took the next step with the offense. In the last two seasons, he has posted WR2 numbers in PPR scoring and put up 1,000 yards receiving.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
Amon-Ra perfectly sums up the “biting kneecaps” mentality that coach Dan Campbell is trying to instill. From the jump, he has been a favorite target of quarterback Jared Goff. In the last few weeks of 2021, he was a straight-up league winner posting an obscene 28.3 PPG in PPR scoring. Good for the number 1 WR during those weeks. The hype train was extremely real during the offseason and I will admit, I was skeptical and believed it was a good opportunity to sell. I was wrong. Dead wrong. He followed it up by finishing at the WR7 in PPR scoring on the season. Next year he will have an additional threat on the outside in Jameson Williams.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
The youngest of the group but also the highest drafted. Garrett Wilson is the only receiver with 1st round draft pedigree of the players being discussed today. At pick 10 overall, high first-round pedigree at that. While the quarterback room with the Jets was a complete mess last season with a combination of Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, and Mike White; he managed to put together a WR21 overall season in PPR scoring and had some nice flashes in games. Next year he finally gets to have a professional-level NFL quarterback and future Hall of Famer in Aaron Rodgers.
Positives (+)
Higgins
There is a lot to like about Tee Higgins as there is a lot to like about the other two players as well. In particular with Tee Higgins, we have a larger sample size of success than either of the other two players given that he has been in the league longer. He also has the best quarterback in the group though it did get closer with the recent trade of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets. Also working to his advantage is that he does not draw primary coverage on any Sunday during the season. Not because of any lack of talent on his part but because he lines up across the formation from either the best or second-best WR in the game in Ja’Marr Chase. With Joe Burrow leading an offense with him and Chase, he also carries the highest touchdown upside of the three. His skillset of being excellent with contested catches gives him another tick-up in that department. While he does not have the same draft capital as Wilson, his early 2nd round draft capital brings a high implied success rate at the WR position.
St. Brown
This is less analytical and more anecdotal but he’s got that dawg in him. I’m not sure what data points I can show you to prove any of this but “Sun-God” plays angry and it shows. This is what Russell Westbrook would look like playing football. Guys that compete stay on the field more and make plays other guys could not. St. Brown has fantastic moves in the open field and perfectly fits the mold of the modern slot receiver. He also has a higher finish than either of the other two pass catchers we are discussing with his finish at the WR7 overall in PPR scoring. He also gets to add a new weapon to the outside with Jameson Williams now a year removed from his ACL injury in the National Championship Game. Williams will have to miss the first six games of the season due to a suspension but when he returns could impact how teams line up against Amon-Ra. While he does not have Joe Burrow or Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback, Jared Goff is at the very least, a professional NFL quarterback and has at times been pretty good. Goff has led many WRs to fantasy success in the past and has shown that he will feed St. Brown with targets aplenty.
Wilson
If we strictly looked at the prospects coming out of college, Garrett Wilson is the best of the group. His draft pedigree alone indicates that NFL scouts tend to agree. He has every route in the tree in his bag. Despite his slender frame, he has shown the ability to go up and make contested catches. While he does not body people out of the way like Tee Higgins or a basketball player grabbing a rebound, he makes acrobatic and graceful catches over defenders that look like a work of art. One of the bigger upsides from a Dynasty perspective that Wilson has is his rookie contract timeline. He is only in the first year of his contract and his deal is a 1st round deal meaning a four-year contract with a fifth-year option. On the contrary, Higgins and St. Brown are more likely to hit free agency sooner and have a shake-up in their opportunity. Finally he just recently got the addition of a future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Negatives (-)
Before you come and attack me on Twitter, understand that we have to split hairs here. All three of these prospects are fantastic. If we don’t nitpick then we could never find a way to rank them. I could have gone on for pages with the positives on all these players but the negatives are much harder for all three.
Higgins
I alluded to contract length with Wilson’s positives but for Higgins, his is potentially a negative situation. Falling to the second round means that Higgins is already in the last year of his deal and could potentially be a free agent in 2024. He could even be traded before then if the Bengals want to get a return on their investment. While free agency is not always a bad thing, he will take a massive downgrade at QB in all likelihood and also likely have to get top-target coverage. While not having Chase take target share from him, it could be more difficult when teams are actively scheming against Higgins in particular. Higgins is also the oldest of the group, albeit, not by much but it does impact the rate of asset decline as fantasy managers see that 24 years old slowly become 27, 28, and 29. You will have a shorter window to move him at premier prices compared to the other two players.
St. Brown
The first negative that I have to bring up with Amon-Ra is one from his draft day. While I thought he should have gone sooner, he went on Day 3 of the NFL Draft as an early 4th round pick. As a Nashville native, I went ham on Facebook telling all my friends that are Titans fans that taking Dez Fitzpatrick (who did not make the team in camp) over Amon-Ra St. Brown was a complete disaster. The 2021 season did not have a combine and NFL scouts were the least prepared for the NFL Draft in the modern era. I think his draft grade was likely closer to a late second or early third-round pick. The truth of the draft capital remains though, and compared to these two other players, I think it makes sense. If you asked me to rank these players before they ever played an NFL snap, he would be third in the group for me. His situation also has some tricky elements, perhaps a rookie QB at some point that doesn’t feed him as much and who knows what Jameson Williams’s target share will look like going forward.
Wilson
When I first started this article, Garrett Wilson had a truly murky situation with Zach Wilson being the “starting” quarterback on the roster. Well, all of that has changed now after the Jets and Packers finally reached terms on the Aaron Rodgers trade. I know there are many that are out on Aaron Rodgers and there is definitely reason for doubt. A poor 2022 season from Rodgers after back-to-back MVPs has soured a lot of fans. A lot of people likely have PTSD from getting hyped when the Broncos acquired Russell Wilson last season. I can understand some skepticism because I have some myself but at the very least we can say that Rodgers is better than any of the quarterbacks rolled out by the Jets last season.
Verdict
When I originally wrote this, and in my rankings, you will see, I had Garrett Wilson as the 3rd ranked in the group due to a murky quarterback situation. Thanks to some breaking news though, we no longer have that concern. When my ranks become updated post-NFL Draft you will see Wilson followed by Amon-Ra St. Brown and then Tee Higgins. While I think in a vacuum, Tee Higgins might be the better WR and talent, it is hard to argue with the insane volume that Amon-Ra gets on a nightly basis. While I am a firm believer of “talent>opportunity,” if it is close enough then opportunity can make the difference.
Thanks so much for reading, if you want to discuss more reach out to me on Twitter, I am @DougHarrelson on there. Thanks also for your membership to DFF! For those signed up for an annual membership, you can always reach the rest of the DFF team and me on our Discord server! Exclusively for annual memberships only. Sign up today!
