Week 12 Buy/Sell

Well, the last week of the fantasy season is finally upon us for the majority of leagues. As such, this is the last week of Buy/Sell as you know it. We’ll be here throughout the playoffs with some matchups we love for each week, just in case your league allows for trades during the playoffs. We’ll also be discussing some players we’re looking forward to drafting (or avoiding) next year, so get ready for that. Before we get into the buys and sells for the final week of the season, we’d just like to say a sincere thank you for reading. Whether this is your first time checking out the article or you’ve been with us all season, thank you! It’s been a blast writing this thing, and we hope we’ve helped you with your transactions this year. On to the final week!

Zach’s Buy: Latavius Murray

As we approach the fantasy playoffs depth becomes very important. The pandemic has changed the way we live and has changed the way we play fantasy. The virus does not seem to be slowing down and it has taken some of our superstars out of the game for at least one week at a time. That serves to underscore why depth is more important this year than in any other year. Latavius Murray is a huge waiver wire target for me as we start to set our teams for the playoff run. Murray has had at least 8 carries in 10 of 11 games this season. Since the Saints’ bye week, he is averaging over 11 carries per game. More recently, Murray has had back-to-back games with double-digit carries including last week where he saw 19. He is not a big threat in the receiving game, but he has had at least one catch in 9 of 11 games.

Murray is an amazing floor player, meaning he will get you some value every week. In half-point PPR Murray has never scored less than 4.3 points and that was way back in week 2. With Taysom Hill locked in at quarterback, it seems that the Saints are moving more into a 50-50 split with Kamara and Murray. Since Hill’s installation as full-time quarterback, Murray has out-touched Kamara 34 to 25. I think it is real and will continue and I have Murray as a nice flex option the rest of the way.

Will’s Sell: Antonio Gibson

But he just had 115 yards and three touchdowns! But he’s averaging more points than Derrick Henry since week seven! I know that, too. But he’s the number one running back over the last four weeks! Exactly. Look, Gibson is a fantastic talent, he’s fun to watch, and he’s a great story. In fact, there may not be a hotter running back in the game over the last month or so. But I believe we’ve just seen the best that Gibson will be this year. Why is that? Two things, touchdowns and game script. He’s scored eight touchdowns in his last five games and has eleven on the year (all on the ground). Only Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook have more rushing scores than Gibson. It’s possible that Gibson keeps scoring through the fantasy playoffs, but I believe that to be improbable due to his upcoming matchups.

This hot streak that Gibson has been on includes two absolute thrashings of the Cowboys in which Gibson finished RB6 and RB2 in the respective weeks. This stretch also includes an RB7 finish against the Bengals, who failed to score in the second half. Weeks nine and ten tell a different story. In week nine, the Giants led Washington 20-3 at the half. Gibson finished with 55 total yards and only saved his day with a touchdown. The next week, my Detroit Lions almost blew a 17-3 halftime lead (and 24-10 lead heading into the fourth quarter) before winning on a late field goal. Gibson was held to 65 yards in that one but was saved by two touchdowns. Are we sensing a pattern here?

Washington has a tendency to get down early, and when that happens they start to throw and Gibson’s value becomes reliant on finding the end zone. Washington faces Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Seattle over the next three weeks. I’m willing to bet those teams can jump out to an early lead on Washington. I’d be looking to sell high on Gibson instead of hoping he can keep on finding paydirt at this pace.

Zach’s Sell: Deshaun Watson

This is less of a call out of Watson and more a call out of the Houston Texans. With the recent news that Will Fuller will be suspended for the remainder of the 2020 season due to PEDs, what else do the Texans have? David Johnson could be returning soon, but are we excited about that? Who else does Watson have other than Brandin Cooks? At this point, when I think of Watson, I think of the John Travolta GIF from Pulp Fiction where he is just looking around the empty room. Watson is too good of a quarterback to be placed in such a bad situation with minimal talent around him. With his next three weeks against Indianapolis, Chicago, and Indianapolis again I am fading Watson and just about every skill player on this Texans team.

Watson will be relied upon even more heavily than he has been and those stout defenses will hone in on him. With Cobb on IR for at least another couple weeks, Watson will be looking to his “C” class of wide receivers Cooks, Coutee, and Coulter to carry him in our fantasy playoffs. Yikes.

Will’s Buy: Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (but only if you’re in the playoffs)

If you can stomach the fact that the Bucs have this weird week 13 bye, these are great targets to get you through the playoffs. Why? Oh, just because they get Minnesota, Atlanta, and Detroit in the fantasy playoffs. Look, I know these guys have been tough all season, but there is no other playoff schedule as good for wide receivers. Those early-season struggles could even work in your favor when trying to buy. The Bucs’ boys had huge preseason expectations and have both failed to live up. But try to look at this objectively. Mike Evans, very quietly, is WR6 over the last five weeks. For a guy who was a borderline drop candidate earlier in the season, that’s a pretty good turnaround.

Godwin has had three straight weeks of double-digit scores, he’s seen at least six targets in every game he’s played, and he only has two single-digit outings this year. This late bye week will help Godwin get closer to full health and could allow the Bucs’ passing game to get more in sync. And did I mention that playoff schedule? I expect both Godwin and Evans to be on many a championship roster.

Zach’s Buy: Cooper Kupp

In week 12, Kupp put up a bit of a stinker, 2 catches for 41 yards. This could be a nice opportunity to buy low on Kupp before the playoffs where he has a nice stretch of games. Kupp plays the Cardinals, Patriots, Jets, and Seahawks the rest of the way and none of those defenses particularly scare you. The Patriots could be a tough matchup, but you must trust talent to win out in that one. In half-point PPR scoring, Kupp has had five double-digit scoring games and 7 of 11 games above 8 points. He is a target monster and should be able to get free for some big plays over the next few weeks. Kupp could be a league winner as he has yet to miss a game and has a high ceiling and a high floor. He is currently a WR2 but I think he produces much closer to a WR1 the rest of the way.

Will’s Sell: DeVante Parker

I like DeVante Parker and I think he’s a solid dynasty buy due to the fact that he’s tied to Miami long-term and Tua Tagovailoa will get better. That being said, Parker averaged less than 40 yards in the four games that Tua started this year. He had single-digit points (half-PPR) in three of those four and only had one decent finish thanks to an early touchdown in week 11 against the Broncos. Injury might force the rookie QB to miss another game here in week 13 in a plus matchup against the Bengals. If Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the nod, go ahead and roll Parker out there another week.

If Tua is the starter, you should consider moving on. He’s finished as a top-15 WR in two straight weeks, but he’s borderline unplayable until his rookie QB starts to key in on him more often. Parker saw 14 targets and posted only his second 100-yard game of the year with Fitzpatrick under center. Parker managers should be praying that the Dolphins decide to shut their franchise rookie QB down for the year.

Thanks for reading! Will (@Dynastywalrus) and Zach (@DFF_Ztrain) would love to hear from you on Twitter to discuss buys, sells, and anything else fantasy!

wbrown

Co-host of The Dynasty 1.01 Podcast (@TheDynasty101). Staff Writer for @DFF_Dynasty. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball

View all wbrown's Posts
%d bloggers like this: