Welcome back for the second edition of Using Redraft to Improve Your Dynasty Team. In this annual series, I look at Underdog ADP (widely considered the sharpest Redraft ADP you can find) and compare it to KeepTradeCut’s Dynasty rankings to see where market inefficiencies lie. I may do an updated version of this article post-NFL Draft as well, as we can expect ADP to adjust as we find out landing spots for these incoming rookies.
While Redraft and Dynasty are two different games, comparing these two ADPs periodically is still good practice. There’s likely value to be had when we see massive ADP discrepancies, especially for our contending Dynasty teams. Underdog ADP is so reliable because these drafts are money leagues with millions of dollars on the line. On top of this, Underdog ADP can update every couple of days due to the sheer volume of drafts on the site. It should give you an excellent indication of 2025 ceiling projections, as Underdog formats are all Best Ball.
If you missed my first edition last offseason, I’d highly recommend you check it out here. In the article, I had two “buy” and two “sell” targets, which are listed below:
Buy:
Sell:
Michael Pittman Jr.
Looking back now, we can confidently say all four of these suggestions hit in some capacity. Let’s look back to May 2024 (when the first article was written) to see how things have changed from a player value perspective.
- Davante Adams may have been the smallest “hit” of the four listed above, but he was a hit nonetheless. Adams was valued as the WR29 in Dynasty last May but finished as WR9 from a PPG perspective (Full-PPR). If you were a contending team, Adams helped you massively down the stretch, averaging 26.5 PPR PPG from Weeks 13-16.
- Nico Collins was a pretty clear smash from a Dynasty perspective. He was valued as the WR20 in Dynasty last May and is up to WR8 now. He’s the clear WR1 in Houston now with no real competition, and he just signed a massive extension. If you bought at the WR20 price tag, you are absolutely loving the value increase now.
- Michael Pittman Jr. was my first “sell” in the article, valued as the WR15 in Dynasty last May, despite the fact he was WR21 in Redraft and entering his age 27 season. He’s since seen his Dynasty value plummet to WR47 on KeepTradeCut.
- Travis Etienne was the Dynasty RB6 last May despite being the Redraft RB11. This value discrepancy may have made some sense if Etienne was entering his rookie or second season, but he was already three years in. Year 4 should be peak production for a running back, yet the sharpest Underdog drafters said Etienne was nothing special. They were right, and Etienne has fallen to Dynasty RB29 this offseason.
Now that we’ve seen the success this exercise can bring our Dynasty teams, let’s look at my biggest buys and sells in Dynasty this year based on my findings from Underdog ADP.
Bo Nix (Buy)
Redraft: QB7
Dynasty: QB11
Nix was one of the biggest risers in Dynasty in 2024, going from an early second-round pick in Superflex rookie drafts to being valued as a low-end QB1. And apparently, that’s not high enough. The Underdog community suggests Bo will be putting up mid-QB1 numbers in 2025, as indicated by his QB7 ranking. That may sound aggressive, but that’s exactly where he finished as a rookie in fantasy. Nix is being valued ahead of Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield. Nix threw for nearly 4,000 yards and has the rushing upside to justify this level of excitement. Buy aggressively.
Breece Hall (Sell)
Redraft: RB11
Dynasty: RB6
You know who else was valued as the Redraft RB11 and the Dynasty RB6 last year? That’s right, Travis Etienne. Is Breece Hall destined to follow in Etienne’s footsteps?
In short, no, I don’t think so. At least not to that extreme. Breece Hall is a more explosive player and a better receiver. Receiving upside is something else to note, as Underdog scoring is half-PPR. Breece’s elite receiving upside gives him a higher floor in your typical Full-PPR Dynasty format. It’s also worth noting that some of the guys ahead of him on Underdog are significantly older, like Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey.
Still, Hall is entering his fourth year and age 24 season. He’s still young, but the tires are slowly adding tread. He’s coming off an RB16 overall finish and entering the final year of his rookie contract. The value insulation is officially gone. One bad season and things could come crumbling down from a Dynasty perspective. The Redraft community still thinks he’s a borderline RB1 in 2025 but far from a league-winner.
Tyreek Hill (Buy)
Redraft: WR12
Dynasty: WR40
Few things were more frustrating in fantasy football than owning Tyreek Hill in 2024. He finished as the WR29 in PPR PPG, his first season not finishing as a WR1 in this category since his rookie year in 2016. It appears Father Time may have finally caught up with Tyreek. Or has it?
In the weeks Tua Tagovailoa was recovering from a concussion, Tyreek dealt with Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley under center. This offense was basically nonexistent during that span, and even when Tua returned, Miami struggled to get into a rhythm. If you include only the games Tua played in, Tyreek averaged 14.9 PPR PPG. Not great, but better than the 12.8 he averaged over the entire season.
Tyreek signed an extension with the Dolphins through 2026 and recently stated he wants to stay with Miami, which I expect he will. Underdog sharps expect Hill to finish as a borderline WR1 in 2025. If he can post that kind of production, it doesn’t even matter what he does in 2026. Buying him at Dynasty WR40 prices has to be worth it.
Kyren Williams (Sell)
Redraft: RB14
Dynasty: RB10
In 2024, Kyren proved to us that he has zero big-play ability, is touchdown-reliant, and is an inefficient rusher. To put it into context, Kyren had 121 more touches than James Cook in 2024, yet only managed to muster six more fantasy points. He needs a massive workload to pay off at his price, and if any competition comes into LA, he’s basically toast. Like Breece, Kyren is also entering the final year of his rookie contract. But unlike Breece, Kyren isn’t very good and has no real team investment from a draft capital perspective. I’m not sure if Blake Corum is talented enough to take away some work, but if the Rams draft an RB in April, Kyren could easily be looking at a timeshare. It appears the Redraft community has baked this into Kyren’s ADP, but the Dynasty community is slightly less concerned. If you told me a year from now, Kyren was the RB32 in Dynasty, I wouldn’t blink an eye.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
