The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected Tyler Johnson, Wide Receiver, out of the University of Minnesota. He was the 16th pick of the fifth round and was the 20th wide receiver drafted in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Biography
Tyler Johnson is 6’2” and 206 pounds. He played four years at Minnesota and will be 22 years old at the beginning of the 2020 NFL season. Johnson is the all-time leader in career receiving yards, touchdowns, and 100-yard receiving games. The past two seasons Johnson competed for targets against Rashod Bateman, one of the top wide receiver prospects in next year’s NFL Draft. Despite being one of the most productive wide receivers in the country, Johnson failed to earn an invite to the Senior Bowl. There have been rumors of character concerns around him this season, but most recent reports indicate those statements are unfounded.
College Production
Tyler Johnson broke out at the age of 19 (age during their first season with a 20% receiving dominator rating) in his second season at Minnesota. It’s difficult to determine which season was Johnson’s best season in college. He had three consecutive seasons with a receiving dominator rating (average percentage of their team’s receiving yards and receiving touchdowns) over 40%. In each of his final two seasons, Johnson had over 75 receptions, 1,150 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns. Johnson had outstanding age-adjusted production. He averaged 826.0 scrimmage yards (74th percentile) and 8.3 scrimmage touchdowns (85th percentile) per season for an average scrimmage dominator rating (average percentage of their team’s scrimmage yards and scrimmage touchdowns) per season of 18.3% (84th percentile). Johnson was very efficient as well and averaged 0.97 scrimmage yards per team play (78th percentile).
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Athleticism
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Tyler Johnson did not participate in the athletic testing at the NFL Combine. Minnesota’s pro day was canceled due to COVID-19 concerns. It’s difficult to decipher Johnson’s athleticism without athletic testing. However, Johnson is a very well balanced receiver who does many things well on the football field. He excels in contested catch situations and is very good in the redzone. There are rumblings among scouts that he lacks NFL level athleticism, but his dominance at Minnesota suggests otherwise.
NFL Landing Spot
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin make up one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL. In their first year under Head Coach Bruce Arians, the Bucs offense finished as the third ranked overall, running the fourth most plays, and passing with the seventh highest frequency. They have moved on from Jameis Winston, and replaced him with Tom Brady. While Brady certainly had a down year last year, he was still efficient targeting all parts of the field, but a lack of weapons certainly hampered his production. Now he gets to throw to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The duo were the W12 and WR2 respectively, combining for a 38% target share. Third WR Breshad Perriman and his 11% target share are gone, replaced by Scott Miller on the depth chart. O.J. Howard was seen as a big beneficiary of the Brady signing as Brady’s success with tight ends has been well documented, but is now the subject of trade rumors. Further cementing those rumors was the draft-week trade for Rob Gronkowski. Despite his prolific injury history, Brady and Gronk have put up historic numbers together. Should Howard go and Gronk be injured, Cameron Brate is a viable target and red zone candidate. Last season, tight ends combined for a 17% target share. While there is room for another receiver to slide in behind Godwin and Evans, it should be noted that Arians is actively looking to add in a pass catching running back. It wouldn’t be very hard for a new receiver to unseat Miller, but it would be hard for a new receiver to carve out targets in this offense.
Rivals’ Rapid Analysis
Tyler Johnson is one of the most promising prospects from an age-adjusted production standpoint that the NFL has seen in several seasons. The disconnect between NFL scouts and people who believe in advanced analytics is surprising after Johnson dominated college football. He’s the type of receiver who can win in traffic and is a big-time threat in the redzone. It will be interesting to see which philosophy is correct and how Johnson does against NFL competition. The Bucs invested fifth round draft capital into Johnson. He has a small degree of opportunity and will compete with Evans, Godwin and Gronkowski for targets from Brady.
Tyler Johnson is in Shawn’s third wide receiver tier, his WR14, and his Overall Rookie Rank 22. Shawn would target Johnson in the early third round in superflex rookie drafts (Early third round in single QB). This is a disappointing landing spot for Johnson. A great receiver who has somehow gone overlooked in this draft, Johnson now has to fight two top 10 receivers to gain target relevance. He definitely possesses the talent and has the college production to back it up, but this landing spot is a tough one to crack into as the Bucs continue to add pass catchers after landing Brady. Johnson might be worth a stash in case of an injury to a primary receiver, or if Brady buys into the Arians way and ignores the tight ends.
Tyler Johnson is in Dave’s fourth wide receiver tier, his WR15, and his 30th-32nd rookie overall. Dave would target Johnson in the mid-third round of superflex rookie drafts (early-third round in single QB). Tyler Johnson is a darling among the analytics crowd. Rumors surrounding his character and poor athleticism will not fully extinguish the legend that is Tyler Johnson. His opportunity in Tampa Bay initially is not that appealing for fantasy purposes. He will be competing with the Buccaneers tight ends, Justin Watson, and Scott Miller as the low-volume third option in the offense. His talent, breakout age, and production profile still make him a worthwhile target in the third round of rookie drafts.
This article was written in collaboration with Dave Wright. For more analysis check out Dave and Shawn’s previous articles at Dynasty Football Factory. Additionally, you can also find Dave’s dynasty superflex rankings at Dynasty Football Factory. Stay tuned for more rookie wide receiver rapid reaction articles from us throughout the entire NFL Draft. We will also give you instant reactions for priority UDFA wide receivers to help you try and find the next Adam Thielen. Interact with Dave and Shawn on Twitter @ff_spaceman and @ff_walrus. You can listen to our rivalry on our podcast @ATaleofTwoRivals with @ff_banterman.
Information found in this article was gathered from @ff_spaceman’s College Prospect Database, PlayerProfiler.com, Sports-Reference.com, AirYards.com, and a prospect’s college team website.
