Well, it happened. The dynasty is dead. The dream is dead. Tom Brady is a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, and they even have some snazzy new uniforms to boot. While the NFL world outside of the five and a half New England states celebrate, the fantasy world speculates on just what that means for the fantasy value of Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and Ronald Jones (or whoever they draft to replace him); I believe there is one player that is being criminally overlooked.
Cameron Brate isn’t an exciting player. Cameron Brate isn’t even a starter. He’s like the Toyota Camry of fantasy football players. He isn’t flashy, he isn’t a prized possession, he looks like a lot of other players, and is easily forgotten or mistaken for others. They are typically older, have some miles on them, and aren’t someone’s first choice. No one will ever celebrate getting a Camry. It’s a practical buy for practical people. But just like a Camry, Brate can be reliable.
For those unfamiliar, Brate broke out during his third campaign in 2016 and was a solid TE1 for two seasons. That all changed in 2018 and he regressed into oblivion.
| Year | Catches | Yards | Touchdowns | ½ PPR Finish |
| 2016 | 57 | 660 | 8 | TE7 |
| 2017 | 48 | 591 | 6 | TE9 |
| 2018 | 30 | 289 | 6 | TE19 |
| 2019 | 36 | 311 | 4 | TE24 |
Pretty uninspiring fall from grace right?
A lot of people will immediately point to OJ Howard’s drafting in 2017 and eventual emergence as the starter as the main cause of Brate’s regression. But, worth noting is that they received nearly equal targets in 2018 and 2019.
| 2018 | 2019 | |||||||
| Targets | Catches | Yards | TDs | Targets | Catches | Yards | TDs | |
| Brate | 49 | 30 | 289 | 6 | 55 | 36 | 311 | 4 |
| Howard | 48 | 34 | 565 | 5 | 53 | 34 | 459 | 1 |
Howard’s superior athleticism clearly plays a part here as he runs longer routes and has a much higher run after the catch ability than Brate. Every year the fantasy community swoons over Howard, touting it as finally his breakout year. But he has yet to log a TE1 finish in half-point PPR, the closest he came was 2018 with TE13. In fact, during the three years that they’ve played together, Brate has finished ahead of Howard in two seasons. A definite contributor to that fact is that Howard has yet to log a full NFL season due to injuries. Conversely, Brate has only missed 1 game since 2016. But the biggest contributor to Brate outpacing Howard is their red zone production:
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||||||||||
| TGTS | REC | PCT | TDs | TGTS | REC | PCT | TDs | TGTS | REC | PCT | TDs | |
| Brate | 13 | 5 | 38 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 66 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75 | 4 |
| Howard | 6 | 4 | 66 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 66 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
Winston’s historically bad 2019 has been well documented, and comically ended with him needing eye surgery because apparently reality is being written by a ten-year-old. Winston’s inefficiency targeting tight ends certainly played a part in the regression of both players. But now Winston is gone, replaced with an older quarterback who’s arm strength is actively questioned (contributing to a reliance on tight ends) and has over a decade of recorded success when targeting tight ends.
Highlighting Howard’s lackluster 2019 was his inefficiency. His catch rate regressed, despite a lack of targets. The same is true of his red zone production. While this isn’t entirely Howard’s fault, and as cited above blame can be attributed to Winston, he came up with some mind-boggling gaffs of his own (see for yourself below). Crazy plays aside, Howard’s catch rate wasn’t the only discouraging statistic. He also led all tight ends in drop rate. Howard’s 5 drops last season matches Brate’s combined total from 2018 and 2019.
Arians, notoriously frank, frequently called out Howard in the media for his struggles. Throughout most of the season, Howard was in the doghouse. He had one hot streak, which accounted for most of his production. Arians has a short leash for mistakes. Brady’s leash is even shorter. He is notorious for favoring reliable receivers, ones who don’t commit drops or break off bad routes. While Brate isn’t as flashy as Howard, his generally reliable hands and red zone production could make him a darling in Brady’s eyes.
There are still plenty of OJ Howard truthers out there, but there are barely any Brate truthers. You can probably score a trade for practically nothing. Just to berate the point, theScore recently published a dynasty trade value chart, and Cameron Brate wasn’t even on it. He is currently ranked as the TE46. In fact, in some leagues Brate might be unowned and you can scoop him up for free.
For a minimum price, or even for free, you can scoop up a backup tight end who has a history of TE1 production. A tight end who has collectively scored the fourth most touchdowns in the last five years. More importantly, for next to nothing (or nothing!), you can have a past TE1 whose path is only blocked by someone with a documented injury history and an unreliability streak that has already angered his no-BS coach and could run afoul of his new QB who masters targeting tight ends.
Buy Cameron Brate this offseason and reap the benefits when Howard yet again refuses to breakout, gets on the wrong side of Brady and/or Arians, or is injured again. And even if Brate doesn’t pan out and I’m out of my element, what did it really even cost you?
For more rantings, check out the rest of my articles at Dynasty Football Factory, and follow me on Twitter at @ff_walrus!
