Past Production
| Year | Games | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs | Fantasy Finish | Fantasy PPG | PPG Rank |
| 2014 | 16 | 87 | 67 | 862 | 5 | TE6 | 11.1 | 8th |
| 2015 | 16 | 103 | 72 | 875 | 5 | TE8 | 11.8 | 9th |
| 2016 | 16 | 117 | 85 | 1,125 | 4 | TE1 | 13.9 | 2nd |
| 2017 | 15 | 122 | 83 | 1,038 | 8 | TE1 | 15.6 | 2nd |
| 2018 | 16 | 150 | 103 | 1,336 | 10 | TE1 | 18.4 | 1st |
| 2019 | 16 | 136 | 97 | 1,229 | 5 | TE1 | 15.9 | 1st |
Travis Kelce’s track record as a star fantasy tight end is undeniable. He missed his entire rookie year with a knee injury. But, since then, he’s played all but one game, a meaningless Week 17 contest in 2017. For six years, Kelce has performed as a solid TE1, and he’s been the TE1 overall four years running.
In 2014 and 2015, Kelce played as the Chiefs’ secondary target behind Dwayne Bowe and Jeremy Maclin, respectively. However, he found significant chemistry with quarterback Alex Smith, allowing him to develop as a pass-catcher. Then, in 2016, the Chiefs drafted speed demon Tyreek Hill, which completely changed their offense. Hill’s speed opened up the middle of the field for Kelce, which allowed Kelce to exploit single coverage and favorable matchups even more than before.
Hill and Kelce have been the top two targets on the Chiefs ever since, although Kelce has finished first on the team in targets every season. Kelce was Smith’s safety blanket, and he allowed Smith to put up two Pro Bowl seasons in 2016 and 2017. By this point in his career, Kelce had blossomed into a superstar, even though Smith was a relatively safe, risk-averse quarterback.
Even though Kelce was already the TE1 in dynasty leagues, he reached new heights once the Chiefs switched over to Patrick Mahomes. As I described in Mahomes’ dynasty profile, he is one of the best quarterbacks ever. Kelce continued his success, with his 2018 season representing one of the best fantasy tight end seasons ever. Overall, no tight end in recent memory has provided the ceiling and floor combination that Kelce has, and quite frankly, it’s not even close.
2020 Outlook
For 2020, the Chiefs have returned the same passing weapons from 2019. Therefore, I have no reason to expect any drop-off from Kelce as a fantasy weapon. Even though George Kittle has emerged as a contender for the top tight end in fantasy football, I still give a slight edge to Kelce. Accordingly, Kelce remains my TE1. Kelce comes in as my 16th overall player in my 2020 PPR redraft rankings.
Dynasty Analysis
In dynasty leagues, Kelce represents an interesting proposition. Kelce turns 31 years old in October, so he finds himself beyond the age cliff I discussed in my recent dynasty veterans article. Since Kelce is a costly and productive dynasty asset, he’s the perfect example of a strong dynasty hold.
Dynasty owners don’t want to invest in Kelce at his current cost of a third-round startup pick and the dynasty TE2. However, if you’re a contender, Kelce is worth far more to your team than what you could recoup for him in a trade. He’s tied to Mahomes for the foreseeable future, although his contract does expire after 2021.
I expect the Chiefs to retain Kelce throughout his career, though, as he’s Mahomes’ favorite weapon. Tight ends can produce into their mid-to-late 30s, and I don’t see any reason why Kelce won’t be a part of that group. If you sold Tony Gonzalez in dynasty leagues before his age-31 season, you would have been very sorry, and I believe Kelce is the same type of transcendent player. Therefore, I wouldn’t seek to trade him off my roster unless I’m in a deep and long-term rebuild.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
