Travis Etienne vs. Jonathan Taylor

In this article, I wanted to break down the dynasty profiles of two RBs that I found are ranked back-to-back on several dynasty ranking sites, including DFF. Travis Etienne and Jonathan Taylor have a lot of similarities in their production profiles and are ranked closely enough that you may be able to do a one-for-one swap or add an inconsequential “plus” on top to acquire the other player in your dynasty leagues. But which player should we value higher for dynasty purposes? Let’s dive into some numbers to find out. 

2023 Production

FPPG – Fantasy Points Per Game (PPR format)

EFPPG – Expected Fantasy Points Per Game (PPR format)

FPPO – Fantasy Points Per Opportunity (PPR format)

Age:

These guys are the same age, born within a week of one another. Etienne has way less mileage in the NFL, though; JT was drafted in 2020, while Etienne was drafted in 2021. Etienne missed the entire 2021 season due to a Lisfranc sprain, so he’s only played in two NFL seasons versus Taylor’s four. So, in theory, Etienne should have more left in the tank. 

FPPG/ EFPPG:

Etienne wins both categories here, finishing as the RB7 and RB8, respectively. Both players’ FPPG was higher than their EFPPG, suggesting they were efficient with their touches from a fantasy perspective. JT’s numbers are a bit skewed, as he spent a good portion of the season splitting the backfield after returning to the field. 

FPPO:

Both these guys were about the same in fantasy points per opportunity. Ideally, we’d like to see this number closer to 1.0, but with enough volume, it’s not a huge deal. 

Yards per touch: 

Pretty much even here as well. This statistic includes rush yards and receiving yards. Again, not great numbers; most elite guys are over 5.0 in this category.

Targets per game:

Etienne posted some impressive numbers, proving to the dynasty community that pass-catching is part of his arsenal. JT has never posted gaudy receiving numbers, but I think we can expect a little better in 2024. He missed the first four games on the PUP list and took another four weeks to fully ramp up, splitting time with Zack Moss. I think 3+ targets per game next year is a reasonable expectation for JT.

PFF Run Block Grade:

This explains Etienne’s rush YPC dropping from 5.1 to 3.8 in 2023. The Jaguars had the second-worst run protection, according to PFF. The Colts, on the other hand, were 8th in run block rating. Much better situation in Indy for their RBs. 

Contract

A player’s contract tells us a lot about team investment and job security. This past October, after a significant holdout, the Colts signed JT to a 3-year, $42M extension. This keeps Taylor in Indianapolis through 2026, although the Colts have a potential out after the 2025 season. Regardless, this contract tells us Irsay is committed to JT as the Colts’ RB1, and we can expect him to be their workhorse guy for the next 2-3 seasons. 

Etienne is still on contract with the Jaguars for 2024 and has a 5th-year option available in 2025. I’d say it’s almost a foregone conclusion Jacksonville exercises that 5th-year option, and Etienne remains a Jaguar in 2025, along with Trevor Lawrence. 

Expect both guys to be starters for their respective teams for at least the next two years. After that, who knows. At that point, both players will be heading into their age 27 season, which, as we all know, is near the end of the road for running backs. 

Competition

Both Etienne and Taylor appear to be heading into the 2024 season with the backfield to themselves. Zack Moss, who carried the workload while JT was on the PUP list, is an unrestricted free agent heading into 2024. Trey Sermon is a restricted free agent but is not a factor regardless, and Evan Hull is probably nothing as well. This backfield is solely JT’s.

For Etienne, some dynasty players were worried Tank Bigsby would eat into his workload heading into the 2023 season. Well, it turns out Tank is horrendous; he couldn’t even hold onto the backup role. Instead, it was D’Ernest Johnson who became that handcuff guy, and he’s a free agent heading into 2024 as well. 

Whether either team grabs a running back in the draft this coming April remains to be seen. But if they do, I doubt anyone will be a legitimate threat to these players’ opportunity shares. This RB draft class is poor, and these two have proven their worth. 

Team Outlook

Anthony Richardson will be back under center for the Colts next season, which may not be good for JT. In his limited action as a rookie, Richardson showed us what we came to expect: he’s an inaccurate passer but an excellent fantasy option due to his rushing upside. I worry the passing volume will take a step back compared to the Gardner Minshew-led Colts. Not only that, but JT’s touchdown rate may regress a bit due to A-Rich vulturing some goal line work. He should still see 70% of the touches in this backfield, but I imagine a smaller percentage of this work will be “high value” touches than we’d like to see. 

Trevor Lawrence had a disappointing Year 3, regressing in several statistical categories and not living up to his fantasy projections whatsoever. Many dynasty players are out on Lawrence, but I’m still comfortable betting on the talent. The Jags finished 21st in PFF pass block grade, 31st in run block grade, and 22nd in receiving grade. In other words, TLaw was not put in a position to succeed. The offensive line is an area that Jacksonville invested heavily in but has flat-out underperformed. Maybe the solution is to go back to the well and use more draft capital to invest in the offensive line. I don’t know the answer, but I have to think they can’t be any worse than last season. 

Considering the lack of protection, I’d say Etienne did a solid job from a fantasy perspective. 3.8 YPC is not great, but 16.6 PPG is impressive. With 73 targets and 58 receptions, he finally gave us the receiving upside we were promised, boosting his PPR production. With a backfield to himself and hopefully not a league-worst offensive line in 2024, I think we can safely project improved numbers from Etienne this coming season. 

Conclusion

When deciding who I prefer between two RB prospects, I will take immediate production into consideration more than I would with other positions. When searching Underdog’s 2024 best ball ADP, some of the sharpest redraft ADP you can find, I saw Taylor was the 14th ranked player overall (RB6) while Etienne was the 30th overall (RB9). This tells us that the redraft community sees a much higher ceiling for Taylor in 2024. 

I’m taking JT over Etienne for this reason. When comparing two RBs in their age 25 season, we should be more concerned about their projections for the next 1-2 seasons. After 2025, these guys will be 27 years old and should see a drop in dynasty value, regardless of how well they played the two years prior. It’s close, but give me the guy who’s produced an RB1 overall season at 22 FPPG. He may have more mileage on him, but I think Taylor’s ceiling in the next two seasons is higher. Etienne is the superior pass catcher, but it’s not enough to tip the scale for me. 

Regarding Superflex startup value, I’d consider JT as early as the mid-third, while I’d prefer to wait for Etienne to fall to the early fourth before I’d feel comfortable pulling the trigger. As I mentioned in my last RB comparison article (you can check that out here), if I’m not getting Jahmyr, Breece, or Bijan, I’d prefer tiering way down to get an older veteran like James Conner, Derrick Henry, or Alvin Kamara. I think the projectible fantasy production is close enough in the short term that I’d prefer taking the massive discount on these guys versus paying the premium for a Taylor or Etienne. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding