Buying running backs in Dynasty Fantasy Football can be a dangerous game, unlike participating in NFL Fantasy Contests. NFL organizations have shown us time and time again that nearly all these guys are replaceable, and they aren’t willing to invest heavily in the position (although there were a few surprising multi-year deals signed this offseason that I didn’t see coming). Many of these backs are one injury away from seeing their Dynasty value drop to zero. Outside of Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs, all these NFL running backs come with their fair share of red flags. So, which guys are still worth rolling the dice on in Dynasty? I’m giving you three names that are being undervalued and could pay massive dividends based on their current ADP.
Jaleel McLaughlin | Denver Broncos | RB51
Jaleel McLaughlin was a UDFA out of Youngstown State, playing as a rookie in 2023. He flashed some real juice and efficiency in Year 1, and frankly, I’m surprised more people aren’t talking about McLaughlin eventually earning RB1 honors in Denver. As a rookie, Jaleel outperformed Javonte Williams in virtually every advanced metric there is. Below is a thread showing where these two ranked amongst RBs this past season from an efficiency standpoint.
*Click Image Above for Link to Full Tweet
Now, I get the argument that Javonte was coming off an ACL and LCL tear in 2022 and was likely not fully healthy. But let me also point out that Javonte is entering the final year of his rookie contract. HC Sean Payton and OC Joe Lombardi were not here when Javonte was drafted, either. They have no allegiance to him as a player. It’s not improbable that if Javonte underperforms again this year, Jaleel will take over the reins mid-season, and Javonte is looking for another team to take him in by 2025. According to Dynasty Data Lab, McLaughlin is going at the 18.05 spot in Superflex startups and at RB51 overall. RB51!!! I mean, you’ve got to be kidding me. If nothing else, this kid has contingent value if Javonte goes down. But I think this offense will be more of a 50/50 split to begin 2024, and McLaughlin has a good chance to take over that starting role sooner rather than later.
Chase Brown | Cincinnati Bengals | RB35
Chase Brown’s dynasty value stayed pretty steady after the Zack Moss signing, and rightfully so. This was maybe the best situation Brown could have hoped for heading into 2024. Outside of a couple of big games for the Colts during Jonathan Taylor‘s absence, Zack Moss has been a fairly uninspiring back his entire career. He’s never finished higher than RB28 in fantasy points per game. I think this signing means the Bengals will forgo drafting an RB in the NFL Draft, at least until later in Day 3. They have too many other holes to fill to worry about adding another body to compete for touches in this backfield.
Chase Brown didn’t get a ton of opportunity in 2023 playing behind Joe Mixon, but he was very efficient with the looks he did get. Here are a few of his most impressive marks as a rookie:
- 3.27 yards after contact per attempt (YCO/A)
- 49.7% breakaway percentage
- 81.1 PFF Receiving Grade
- 4.47 yards per route run (YPRR)
Again, this is a small sample size. Brown had just 44 rush attempts and 35 routes run. But that’s about as efficient as we could hope from a Day 3 pick. Brown should be a committee back in a high-powered offense heading into 2024. If Moss were to suffer an injury, Brown would have immediate RB1 upside, barring some rookie RB being added to the mix. Brown is the RB35 at pick 12.12 in Dynasty Startups (144 overall). I wouldn’t hesitate to take the young, explosive RB with upside here.
James Conner | Arizona Cardinals | RB29
James Conner is coming off one of the better seasons in his career, finishing with 15.5 fantasy points per game (RB13). He’s finished with 15+ FPPG in each of the past three seasons. Despite Conner showing no signs of falling off, the dynasty community is valuing him as a mid-RB3 this offseason. The red flags are pretty apparent; I won’t lie. He’s headed into his age 29 season and his final season on contract. And Conner has never been a true receiving threat, averaging just 4.3 FPPG from the receiving game in 2023 (PPR formats). He’s more TD-dependent and is on the tail-end of his career. I get it.
I’ll go ahead and make the bull case now by simply showing you where James Conner ranked amongst RBs in 2023 in several metrics (minimum 50 attempts):
- 3.93 YCO/A – RB2 overall
- 0.29 missed tackles forced per attempt (MTF/A)
- 60 total MTF – RB3 overall
- 5.0 yards per attempt (YPA) – RB6 overall
James Conner was objectively good at football in 2023, and while his decline could happen at any time, I’m fine rolling the dice at an RB29 price tag. Conner survived free agency; he just needs to survive the NFL Draft now. He’s finished as the RB13 or better in four of seven seasons. If he produces even one more RB1 season, he’s paying off his ADP for your dynasty team. Let me clarify that I would only buy Conner on a rebuilder if I were confident I could flip him for a profit (which is entirely possible). But on a contending team, you won’t find better cheap production than James Conner.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
