Dynasty Trade Breakdown 2.0

Welcome to the Dynasty Trade Review HQ, your go-to source for mastering the art of Dynasty Fantasy Football trading. Dive into the depths of player valuation, league dynamics, and negotiation strategies. Let’s navigate the trade market together and craft winning trades for building our dynasty rosters. 

Our recent twitter poll on @DynastyReviewHQ showed this trade in favor of the draft picks side. We always love to see premium picks and top-tier QBs moving around in our leagues. This is a trade that gets the league chat buzzing. We’ll examine this trade to look at the benefits of splitting a player into separate pieces in a 2:1 trade, as well as the upside of liquidity in owning draft picks and roster construction flexibility. If you’d like a refresher on the variables I consider when analyzing trades, check out my first article here.

Player Values

Team A is receiving Lamar Jackson (QB-BAL), QB4 for the 2023 season and current league MVP, averaging 21.1 PPG, currently going off the board as QB5 in startup drafts. Lamar is still a young 27 in an ascending offense, entering into year two of Todd Monken at OC. I’m not worried about Derrick Henry (RB-BAL) taking goal line touches, because Gus Edwards (RB-LAC) took them all last year and Lamar still was a top QB option. We hope he takes a step forward in passing touchdowns as he becomes more comfortable in the offense. But barring injury, we should expect another top 5 QB year from Lamar Jackson.

Team B is receiving everyone’s favorite premium mystery boxes: picks 1.03 and 1.04 in this year’s rookie draft. Currently, they’re being valued in startups as picks number 21 and 29 overall. While they are a tier down from the 1.01/1.02 in this year’s draft, there is still a solid selection of players at these two slots. Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and Malik Nabers should all command top 15 draft capital at a minimum, with many draft pundits calling for the top 10. The benefit of these picks is their flexibility. If you need a QB, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye are there for the taking. Do you have a roster need at WR? Malik Nabers is there to save the day.

Roster Flexibility 

Lamar Jackson is a top 3 QB in scoring and is in a clear tier over any QB without rushing upside. Just on a pure points performance, Lamar will most likely out-score either QB prospect selected at 1.03 for the season. So, if we’re tiering down at QB, what is the benefit? 

Roster flexibility. We now have two picks in one of the most hyped drafts in recent memory. If your team needs WR help but is strong at the QB position, we have two top prospects in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers. Now your team is more balanced overall, and you have the flexibility of trading back further in the draft and acquiring more picks or a player of equal value to either the 1.03 or 1.04. This flexibility to move around the draft keeps our rosters from having massive deficits at certain positions. Trading is key to filling in the holes we have after acquiring our cornerstone dynasty pieces. 

If your team is in a serious rebuild and Lamar Jackson was your only premium asset, we are most likely going to have to split Jackson into separate assets. Lamar is a polarizing player and will have his detractors. It can be difficult to move these players, but people are ALWAYS looking to acquire picks as they get to select the player. From the 1.04 spot, you can trade back further and acquire more picks, maybe into the 2025 draft, and continue our rebuild and fill out our roster.

Risk vs. Reward & Future Value

Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels will have to play well to secure the dynasty values that Lamar Jackson already has. So, why would we trade the locked-in top 8 QB each year for two unproven rookies?

If we are a contending team, we’re most likely not trading Lamar Jackson away, barring injury. So, we’ll operate under the assumption we are rebuilding. Lamar’s value is locked into the first round of startups. It is almost impossible for him to gain value, as he is picked 5th or 6th overall. These rookie picks, however, will continue to gain in value, all the way up until the NFL Draft this April. It is within the range of outcomes that a rookie QB or WR selected with these picks has a great season. The dynasty community falls in love, and their value skyrockets like C.J. Stroud (QB-HOU) or Puka Nacua (WR-LAR) this past season. 

Each manager has to weigh their own risk to reward tolerance with their team. If your team is a rebuilder, you’re getting fair value here, along with a good amount of upside for your future 2024 season. Could you squeeze out a little bit more? Maybe, try it and continue the negotiations. Indicate that you’re interested and thinking it over and ask for a throw-in that you like. This could be a 3rd round draft pick or a late-round player you might be high on. Keep the negotiations open and see where they take you. 

Hope you enjoyed the article! If you have a topic on trades you would like to see discussed, or you’d like a trade analyzed please DM me at @DynastyReviewHQ with your league roster and scoring format. Keep grinding those trade lines! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding