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Threatened Species: IDP Impact of Panthers’ Regime Change

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No NFL team is undergoing more transition than the Carolina Panthers. Founding owner Jerry Richardson sold the franchise to David Tepper ahead of the 2019 season. It seemed much of the organization was on probationary employment. Fired after Week 13, head coach Ron Rivera didn’t see the season through. Star defender Luke Kuechly announced his retirement after the regular season. (Former?) Starting quarterback Cam Newton’s future is in limbo. Several starters’ contracts were set to expire after 2019. Other players have contracts expiring after 2020 with digestible cap hits if cut this offseason.

Mr. Tepper flew to Waco, Texas, to hire Baylor Bears’ Head Coach Matt Rhule himself. Rhule will bring Phil Snow, his collegiate defensive coordinator with him. Rhule and Snow occupied these roles for three years at Baylor and four years at Temple before that. 

Rhule also attracted Mike Phair from Indianapolis to coach the defensive line. Phair began his coaching career with Phil Snow, his mentor at Arizona State, 20 years ago.

Rhule said this month that he “leans toward” a 4-3 defensive front. The addition of Phair supports that. Snow deployed a hybrid front to face the spread offenses of the Big XII Conference while at Baylor. His Temple defense ran a similar scheme.

A key component of the front was a pass-rusher playing 7-technique standing up. This player, identified as “rush-backer” at Baylor, would also quickly transition to coverage. Success in this role at Temple propelled Haason Reddick into the first round of the 2017 NFL draft. This position, a hybrid DE/OLB, allows for room for interpretation as to whether the alignment is a 4-3 or 3-4 base defense. 

This distinction matters little to the Panthers. It’s of no consequence to fantasy gamers in leagues with “true positions” – interior defender (IDL), edge defender (EDG), and linebackers. Most IDP gamers, however, have grown accustomed to IDPs flip-flopping between position designations, especially defensive end and outside linebacker.

Some IDP fantasy football providers defaulted to inaction in the face of uncertainty in the 2019 offseason. The good news for fantasy gamers is that many Panthers carry the preferred position designations of the 4-3 defense that the team ran in 2018. In 2019, regular contributors like Kawann Short, Gerald McCoy, Mario Addison, Bruce Irvin, Brian Burns, and Marquis Haynes all carried position designations inconsistent with the Panthers’ 3-4 alignment on MyFantasyLeague.com. 

Those few returning defenders present some interesting opportunities in IDP fantasy football. Incoming free-agent acquisitions and rookies could step into productive roles. This article contemplates how Phil Snow’s Temple and Baylor defensive schemes if implemented in Charlotte, would translate to IDP fantasy football. 

Defensive Tackles

The interior defensive line stands to lose several contributors, but the starters of the 2019 opener could return. Dontari Poe and Kawann Short stand to resume familiar roles at nose tackle and 3-tech tackle, respectively.

Poe is a space-eater, not an IDP asset. He occupies blockers, freeing up his teammates to make plays. Cutting him would save the franchise $10M against the cap in 2020. It would also leave a gap in the middle of the defense that the team could not effectively close in 2019.

In the prime of his career, Short was a top defensive tackle in the league. He lost most of his 2018 and 2019 seasons to injuries and is now 30 years old. If he has anything left in the tank, he could be an interesting sleeper in 2020. He’ll be asked to fill an attacking 3-technique role.

Defensive Ends

Efe Obada signed a contract extension to secure his future with the team. He’s the best candidate now on the roster to start at strongside defensive end. He earned more snaps in this role under Interim Head Coach Perry Fewell. Fewell deployed more 4-3 looks after Rivera left.

At this point, Obada is basically free to roster in IDP fantasy football. He might not have a high ceiling as a pass rusher but could provide a floor collecting tackles. He’s worth a look in all full-IDP leagues (leagues requiring 11+ defensive starters, including 2 ends and a tackle).

The best candidate to play opposite Obada is the Panthers’ 2019 first-round draft choice Brian Burns. His draft profile suggests he has the tools to execute the coverage and pass-rush responsibilities of Snow’s “rush-backer.” After a year as a 3-4 outside linebacker, Burns may need to increase mass to face the run on the defensive line. He lost snaps in Fewell’s 4-3 alignment over concern he couldn’t set the edge.

MFL and Fleaflicker currently designate Burns as a defensive end. Fantrax, however, has him at linebacker. He’ll need that DE tag to be a significant fantasy asset.

Reserves behind Burns include 2019 rookie Christian Miller and sophomore Marquis Haynes. Their position designations also vary by site. Each is also undersized to play 7-technique.

Burns backed up 32-year-old Mario Addison in 2019. If not extended, he’ll be among the Panthers’ stalwarts to move on. The defensive scheme change could mean fewer snaps available to pure edge rushers in 2020. If Addison is retained, all of them would be hard to trust in fantasy lineups.

Linebackers

The Panthers extended weakside linebacker, Shaq Thompson, during the 2019 season. He’ll return to familiar roles in run defense and coverage. He could be asked to split out with pass-catchers when facing empty sets. He did so for former Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks in the first three years of his career.

Shaq Thompson was an LB2 in IDP fantasy football leagues for 2019. He had plenty of tackle opportunities because he allowed more receptions (73) in coverage than any linebacker in the NFL. 

Luke Kuechly’s retirement leaves a gaping hole in this defense. The role should be a productive one for fantasy purposes. The Panthers will need to fill the role through free agency or the draft. 

The reserves on the roster for 2020 are two second-year players, Jermaine Carter and Andre Smith. They should be rostered in the deepest of leagues in the event they challenge for the vacant starting spot at middle linebacker. 

Safeties

Strong safety Eric Reid was one of the surprise breakouts of the 2019 fantasy football season, finishing second among all safeties in fantasy points. His production spiked with Ron Rivera’s change in scheme. While reports focused on the front seven, Reid’s emergence as a box safety went nearly unnoticed. Reid, too, was extended in 2019. 

In Phil Snow’s scheme, Reid should rotate down into the box frequently. While he can’t be expected to finish second overall again, he should still be an S1 for 2020. This assumes he isn’t asked to switch to free safety. He played there for the 49ers earlier in his career.

The scheme also frequently requires single-high safety to support man coverage. 2019 starting free safety Tre Boston has experience in such a role with the 2017 Chargers. He was not so effective for them as to be retained for a second season. Even if the Panthers bring Boston back for 2020, he can be ignored by fantasy gamers.

Cornerbacks

Ron Rivera’s defense featured more zone coverages than most. In his familiar Cover-4 and Cover-6 zone defenses, cornerbacks faced the quarterback and frequently tackled receivers in front of them for minimal gains. Additionally, the Panthers’ stat crew showed a preference for awarding assisted tackles. 

These factors together made starting CBs James Bradberry and Donte Jackson, reliable IDP assets. Gamers can probably discard them after Ron Rivera’s dismissal. Phil Snow will more frequently deploy cornerbacks in man coverage. Besides, Jackson was benched late in 2019, and Bradberry is entering free agency. Dynasty gamers should aim to recoup any value they can.

In Summary

The new coaches’ lack of experience in the NFL means that some conjecture is necessary to project their scheme into the league. Principles of Phil Snow’s defense at Baylor and Matt Phair’s experience in Indianapolis suggest a hybrid 4-3 with a strong safety in run support and plenty of man coverage. 

For fantasy football, this would yield a couple of sleepers on the Panthers’ defensive line and a breakout player in Brian Burns. Existing assets Reid and Thompson retain most of their value. An opportunity to jump on a valuable middle linebacker will emerge in the coming months. 

Panthers’ OTAs and training camp will be important to watch not only to verify projected scheme changes but also to see which players take early leads in position battles. This writer will be watching… and tweeting!

Clemson and Michigan alum…Panthers and Cowboys fan…I try to see both sides of every debate and each trade. Find me on Twitter @DynastyTripp.

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