I tend to scroll through KeepTradeCut rankings periodically, not because they are the sharpest Dynasty rankings in the world, but rather because these are community-sourced rankings, so I get a feel of how the general public views players from a Dynasty perspective. (DFF’s expert rankings are far more reliable, but I digress.) While doing so this week, I noticed a name that was shockingly undervalued, to the point that I needed to make an article on this young wideout. Josh Downs is entering Year 2 for the Indianapolis Colts, coming off what I believe was a pretty productive rookie year. Yet Dynasty players are discounting Downs heavily for a couple of reasons. But before we discuss that, let’s look at his final rookie numbers.Â
2023 Season
Josh Downs was a third-round pick out of North Carolina, pairing up with fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson as Shane Steichen looked to hit the ground running in Year 1 as head coach. Unfortunately for Indy, things didn’t go quite as planned, as Richardson suffered a concussion followed by an A/C joint sprain, sidelining him for all but four contests. As a result, Downs received passes from Gardner Minshew most of the season, which isn’t a bad thing from a fantasy perspective for a slot guy like Downs. Josh finished the season with 98 targets, 68 receptions, 771 yards, and a pair of touchdowns, good for an average of 9.2 fantasy points per game (WR51).Â
On the surface, this may sound like pretty modest work, but with some context, we can see that his rookie year was actually quite impressive. Downs suffered a knee sprain in Week 9 vs. Carolina, which completely changed the trajectory of his season. While Downs didn’t technically miss any games, he only ran 17 total routes between weeks 9 and 10 and didn’t appear to fully recover the remainder of the season. Prior to the knee injury, Downs was averaging 12.5 FPPG through his first eight NFL games. He’ll have had a full offseason to recover and come into Year 2 even better. Right now, Josh Downs is ranked as the WR55 on KeepTradeCut, down from WR27 just seven short months ago. If we can get a full season of 12-13 PPR points per game from Downs in 2024, which I believe we will, his Dynasty stock will jump back up into that WR3 (top 36) range very quickly.
College Production
I would be remiss to leave out Downs’ college prospect profile in this article, as it was one of the best we’ve seen from a Round 3 wide receiver. Downs broke out as a true sophomore, posting over 1,300 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He followed that up with another thousand-yard season, finding the endzone eleven times as a junior. Downs was the go-to target for Sam Howell and Drake Maye in his final two seasons, and he had tons of hype around his name entering the 2023 NFL Draft as an early declare. The late Day 2 draft capital disappointed many, but we have to realize that the NFL prioritizes x-receivers over slot receivers.Â
Josh Downs had one of the best analytical profiles, if not THE best, in this 2023 WR class. He graded out as the WR5 in Chris Museezer’s WR1 Analytical Model Rankings (you can check that full article out here). I loved Downs as a prospect coming out of UNC and believe he showed us enough as a rookie to believe he’s a very good NFL wide receiver.Â
Concerns
The two main concerns are how Downs will mesh with Anthony Richardson, a run-heavy quarterback, and the fact Indianapolis elected to draft WR Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft.Â
I will admit that Downs didn’t do much in the three full games Anthony Richardson played. But I’m willing to give him a pass, as this was three of his first four NFL games ever. Richardson has the arm talent to sufficiently feed his top pass-catchers, and Downs is certainly one of them.Â
The addition of AD Mitchell has many people souring on Downs, as they have likely assumed he’s dropped to WR3 on his own team. I’m not sure that’s the case, however. We’ve yet to see Mitchell play in an NFL game, and we’ve already seen Downs be good at this level. Mitchell is strictly an outside receiver, while Downs operates primarily from the slot, so they’re not competing for the same role in this offense. It appears that Mitchell will be the deep threat, Michael Pittman Jr. will be running the intermediate routes, and Downs will get the short-yardage targets.Â
The next question is, will Josh Downs be the odd man out in sets with two or fewer wide receivers? Being in the slot, it’s certainly possible, but it’s more likely that the Colts will just run 11 personnel the majority of the time. In 2023, the Colts ran 11 personnel 61% of the time on first downs, ranking fifth in the NFL. Downs’ route participation was 84.3% as a rookie, which isn’t amazing, but it’s not bad for a rookie, considering there were two games where he was hurt and only played a few snaps.
Simply put, Downs is a legitimately good NFL wide receiver that the Colts will have a tough time sitting. Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception graded out his success by route in 2023; as you can see, he was nearly flawless as a route runner. His only red mark was the nine route, which he never runs anyway.
Conclusion
Ranked WR55 overall, you aren’t going to find a better Dynasty WR value than Josh Downs this offseason. He’s behind guys like Christian Watson, AD Mitchell, Xavier Legette, Jameson Williams, Calvin Ridley, Ja’Lynn Polk, Chris Godwin, and Romeo Doubs. Frankly, I would prefer Downs over every one of those names. Between his route running and blocking abilities, Steichen will find a way to involve Downs as much as possible and we will be talking about him as a top 36 Dynasty receiver this time next year. Buy the dip while you can! Josh Downs is a great combination of immediate production, youth, and a high ceiling.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
