The GPP Playbook – Week 5

This week I will again be focusing on GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) tournament plays for Week 5 of the NFL main slate on Draftkings. I’ll go through multiple picks at each position at varying salaries, so that no matter how you are constructing a line-up this week one of these guys will slot right in.

Last week we had a huge week, with massive scores at every position and price range. Kamara (44.1 pts), Melvin Gordon (33.9 pts), Nyheim Hines (28.3 pts), James White (31.2 pts), Andy Dalton (28.78 pts), Tyler Boyd (24.00 pts), Sterling Shepard (25.7 pts), Eric Ebron (15 pts) and the Green Bay DST (23 pts) all way outperformed their salaries. Our only real whiffs of the week were Michael Thomas and Jordan Howard, whatever that was about.

Quarterback

Ben Roethlisberger ($6,900 vs ATL) / Matt Ryan ($6,700 @PIT)

Both of these QBs have everything you want in a GPP Play this week, super high floor and a 50+ point ceiling. I will be mixing in Stacks of both QBs in most of my lineups this week. The line of 58.5 is one of the highest of the season and I can see that being absolutely smashed. Both Quarterbacks have elite WR1s in AB and Julio, with electric WR2s in Juju Smith Schuster and the emerging Calvin Ridley. Both Big Ben and Ryan also have capable pass catchers out of the backfield. More importantly, both the Steelers and the Falcons have atrocious defenses, giving up the 3rd and 4th most points to QBs this year respectively.

Blake Bortles ($5,500 vs KC)

Blake Bortles set a personal best for passing yards last week and has now scored over 28 DK points in 2 of his 4 games this season, and all conditions are in place for him to do it again this week. Without Leonard Fournette the chains are usually off Bortles and we see him throw a lot more, he averages over 300 passing yards and 2 touchdowns per game in his absence. The Chiefs have given up the 5th most fantasy points to QBs on the season, which is impressive considering they only gave up 7.8 points to Case Keenum in week 4. The Chiefs have the offense to keep this game competitive, at $5,500 the upside is huge here.

 

Running Back

Melvin Gordon ($8,600 vs OAK)

As I’ve said every week so far, just play Melvin Gordon regardless of match-up, he is game script proof and is fast becoming slightly cheaper Todd Gurley.

David Johnson ($6,300 @SF)

David Johnson is starting to see the usage he deserves, with 22 carries and 4 targets this past week against the Seahawks. So why he has been reduced to his cheapest salary of the year in his best matchup yet is beyond me, this is a slam dunk play and cannot see myself looking past him in many lineups.

Kareem Hunt ($5,800 vs JAX)

The Chiefs high scoring offense encountered their first real tough passing defense last week in Denver, and they still managed to score with Kareem Hunt being at the center of it. Hunt exploded for 121 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, catching 4 of 5 targets for another 54 yards through the air. I can see the game script of this one being similar to last week, which could mean another big day for Hunt, you won’t see him cheaper than this again this season.

T.J. Yeldon ($5,600 @KC)

The flip side of the Kansas/Jacksonville matchup, Yeldon had a big week last week scoring on the ground and through the air. His yards per carry did leave a lot to be desired but he did get 19 carries, in addition to 3 targets. That volume against this defense should mean solid production and a good return on investment at $5,600.

Matt Breida ($5,400 vs ARI)

The Cardinals have allowed an average of 140 rushing yards per game, and a total of 7 rushing touchdowns through 4 weeks, no other team has given up more than 5 so far. Brieda led the league in rushing yards through the first 3 weeks of the season and now that CJ Beathard is under center we can expect a lot more dump off passes to the RB position.

Aaron Jones ($4,300 @ DET)

Aaron Jones came back into the fold following his suspension and immediately staked his claim to lead this backfield. Jones and Jamaal Williams split the backfield, with 11 carries each, but Jones far out-performed Williams. Williams managed just 27 yards, whereas Jones ran for 65 yards and a Touchdown. It is noteworthy that Jones also saw work in the game, with the vast majority of Green Bay’s WR room hobbled in one way or another he could see an increased role as a pass catcher.

 

Wide Receiver

Juju Smith-Schuster ($7,500 vs ATL)

Juju has been phenomenal this season, he has caught 32 of his 38 targets so far this year to lead the Steelers in receiving yards with 416, averaging 104 yards per game through the air. He has only scored one touchdown on the year but he is primed for success in this matchup. The Falcons have given up a ton of points to wide receivers on the season and as mentioned earlier the line for this game is the biggest of the week. Take the $1,600 discount from Antonio Brown, they have not been much different when it comes to production so far.

Tyler Boyd ($5,700 vs MIA)

Boyd has been a mainstay in this article since Week 2 and has not disappointed. Boyd has averaged 24.6 DK points over the last 3 weeks and has not scored less than 21.1 in that stretch. Boyd has proven to be a super reliable option for Andy Dalton, leading to him targeting Boyd 15 times last week in Atlanta. At $5,700 you should be able to find a player capable of 15 targets so continue to lock Boyd in weekly until his price corrects.

John Brown ($5,600 @CLE)

John Brown has just been scoring points quietly without anyone really talking about it, he is yet to score less than 13.5 DK points as a Raven, and after his 23.9 point outing last week he is still sub $6k. The Browns have been very generous to the WR position so far this season, and last week they gave up 239 yards and 2 TDs on 18 receptions to WRs. John Brown is averaging 84,5 receiving yards per game, this is a no-brainer.

Dede Westbrook ($4,700 vs KC)

Dede should put up points this week against a very leaky Chiefs secondary. Blake Bortles had the game of his career last week and targeted Westbrook 13 times in the process. If Dede sees anything close to that volume again he will put up numbers, and that is not unlikely as the Jaguars are going to need to keep up with this powerhouse offense. The cheap stack with Bortles ($5,500) will leave a lot of room to pay up at RB.

Jordy Nelson ($4,500 @ LAC)

The Chargers defense has not proven to be the force everyone expected heading into the season, they have given up the 5th most points to WRs through 4 games. Jordy Nelson has seen 8 targets per game over the last 2 weeks and scored a total of 50.1 DK points in those games. The Chargers will put up points against the Raiders so Derek Carr will be slinging the ball all day long, 8-10 targets for Jordy is definitely not out of the question so he is a great candidate to outperform his $4,500 price tag.

Mohamed Sanu ($4,000 @PIT)

This game has an over/under of 58.5 and the handicap is just 3 points, so expect a ton of points on both sides of this game. Sanu has averaged just under 18 DK points in his last 2 games. Getting any pass catcher in this game at $4k is a bargain, but when the guy has been second in targets in the Falcon’s last 2 games, including 8 last week, $4k becomes an absolute steal.

 

Tight End

Vance Mcdonald ($3,700 vs ATL)

Vance has shown big playmaking ability after the catch so far this year and has been utilised when healthy in this Steelers offense, averaging 5 targets per game. The Falcons have given up double-digit fantasy days to TEs in 3 of their 4 games this season. This game has enormous points line at 58.5, there will be a ton of points scored and Mcdonald gives you the cheapest exposure to guaranteed targets in this game.

Jared Cook ($4,800 @ LAC)

So far through 4 weeks we have seen Cook score 8 twice and 30 twice, give me a Tight End under $5k with a floor of 8 points any week in DFS, the 30 point ceiling just makes it sweeter. The Chargers have been stout against the position this season until last week where they allowed George Kittle to put up 27.5 DK points.

 

Defense/Special Teams

For an incredible insight into how to best select your DFS Defense, check out this article from Matt Jones (@MattJonesTFR): https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/putting-the-d-in-dfs/

Tennessee Titans ($4,000 @ BUF)

The Packers showed last week why rule number 1 for 2018 is “Play everyone against the Buffalo Bills” even after the Vikings tried their best to put us off in week 3. The Titans have not been a bad defense so far, scoring double-digit points in 2 of their 4 games. Just plug them in and don’t worry about a thing.

Buffalo Bills ($2,300 v TEN)

I also like the other side of this game, while the Bills’ offense has been a bonafide dumpster fire, their defense has been solid. We all saw what they did to Minnesota 2 weeks ago, and holding Green Bay to just 22 points last week was actually impressive considering the way the game went. The Titans have hardly been a powerhouse offense, scoring just 7 total offensive touchdowns on the year. This game has the lowest total points line of the week at 39, and I’d take the under on that.

Cincinnati Bengals ($2,700 vs MIA)

The Bengals opened the season strongly with back to back double point games, then went on the road to two good offenses and came away without any DK points. This week the Bengals welcome Miami, who have averaged the 6th most points allowed to opposing D/STs through 4 weeks. Vontaze Burfict has returned to the Bengals line-up which is a huge upgrade for them and a boost for the entire defense.  

 

That’s it for this week, I hope these guys help you get into the green this Sunday. If you use any of these guys in your line-ups this weekend let me know how you get on over on twitter @DFF_Mste. Good Luck!

mstephenson

Editor and Director of #DFS content for @DFF_Dynasty and Writer for @DFF_Redraft.

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