Everyone wants to find the edge in fantasy football. Sometimes the edge is glaring at you from across the room, and you just fail to notice it; or in this case, everyone fails to notice. Everyone is enamored with top-tier running backs and quarterbacks because of the positional advantage they give your team. We should be looking at the difference in production between a top player at a position and the bottom end starter at the same position, but we need to set some criteria for this study to have the most helpful results.
Rules and Criteria
Let’s start by considering 2QB/2WR/2RB/1TE/1FLEX the standard roster construction. When looking at production at a position, we will look at the average fantasy points per game (PPR scoring), so we can see what production you’re getting on a weekly basis. We will set a threshold of at least eight games played, to avoid outliers. We will also be comparing the 3rd highest producer at each position rather than the 1st, to avoid outlier-like seasons in production. With all the rules and criteria set for the study let’s look at what matters, the results.
The Results
The difference between QB3 and QB24 in this last season was a 32% decrease in production (9.1 FPPG). In 2019 it was a 24% decrease (6.2 FPPG), and in 2018 it was a 26% decrease (6.8 FPPG). In the last three years, this comes out to a 27.3% decrease in production, which is a difference of 7.4 FPPG.
The running back position, a similarly valued position, saw a 38% decrease in production in 2020 from RB3 to RB24 (8 FPPG). In 2019 it was a 36% decrease (7.2 FPPG) and in 2018 it was a whopping 49% decrease (11.6 FPPG). This comes out to an average 41% decrease and a difference of 8.9 FPPG.
As for the wide receiver position, there was a 29% decrease (5.9 FPPG) in 2020, a 22% decrease (4 FPPG) in 2019, and a 35% decrease (7.3 FPPG). This comes out to an average 28.7% decrease and a difference of 5.7 FPPG.
Comparing Production Advantages to ADP
The most important part of all is to compare these advantages to the market, or in this case ADP, to see how you can exploit it. Using DLF’s April SF ADP, we find that ten QBs are being drafted in the top thirteen. This doesn’t exactly scream value. As for running backs, there are three being drafted in the top thirteen and seven drafted in the top twenty-four. Other variables play into that such as longevity, but most importantly it’s about finding value gains, and with the high price these assets have, there’s a very minimal gain opportunity. Wide receivers don’t provide a very high positional advantage, but their ADP reflects that with zero going in the top twelve and just three going in the top twenty-four. No glaring value gain opportunities to be had here.
But what about the edge glaring at you from across the room that you failed to notice? The position that’s hiding outside the top 30 in ADP. It’s the tight end position. Startup ADP would leave us to believe that tight ends don’t offer that high of a positional advantage.
In a traditional twelve-team league, only twelve different tight ends are using starting roster spots in a week because no one uses a flex spot for one. Well in 2020 there was a 36% decrease (5.6 FPPG) in production between TE3 and TE12. In 2019 it was a 36% decrease (5.2 FPPG), and a massive 42% decrease (6.8 FPPG) in 2018. This comes out to an average of 38% decrease and a difference of 5.9 FPPG.
Comparing this to other positions it only trails running backs in average percent decrease in production and is still ahead of wide receivers in terms of average PPR advantage. This doesn’t even include tight end premium scoring that would make the difference between a top-tier tight end and bottom-end starter only separate further apart, leading to an even greater positional advantage. The best part about this? Using DLF’s ADP It only costs a third-round pick to get this level of production difference. The value gains opportunity is to the moon with top-tier tight ends.
Going a Step Further
How can we create an even larger advantage with tight ends? By using elite ones in these coveted flex spots. Take Travis Kelce for example. He would’ve finished as WR3, WR10, and WR9, the last three seasons respectively. At Kelce’s current ADP he’s being drafted as WR8. Stacking him with Kittle or Waller would allow you to roster one in your flex spot, which isn’t only an advantage when it comes to drafting at ADP but also because it allows you to manipulate the market.
When you roster two of the very few assets that have legitimate value at their position, you’re adding extra value to each of your tight ends. Not only do other league mates have worse tight ends, but if they are wanting to get one, you own all of the leverage and can trade one for much more than they’re truly worth. It’s a win-win, whether you use one in your flex or are getting exponential value for one.
If you’re looking for a simple edge, start noticing the one glaring at you from across the room. The elite tight end is a league winner. Until the next article, @dynasty_im.
