dynasty value

mims

Roster Cloggers Are Quietly Killing Your Dynasty League – Part 2

Dynasty, Strategy Content / By /

Welcome back for Part 2 of my “Roster Clogger” series! In this article, we’ll be discussing some hard-hitting questions that are worth asking to identify those roster cloggers on your dynasty roster. Then, we’ll finish things up with some warning signs by position. 

If you missed Part 1, you can check that article out here. Let’s dive back in. 

The Roster Clogger Test

The best way to identify roster cloggers is to stop asking whether a player has any possible value and start asking sharper questions.

Almost every player has some possible value. That standard is too low.

Instead, ask these questions.

Can I Start This Player Confidently?

This does not mean, “Could I technically put him in my lineup?”

You can start almost anyone in a deep enough league.

The real question is whether you would feel good about it. If injuries hit and you need points, can this player realistically help you? Does he have a stable role? Does he have a path to volume? Can he get you something more than a desperation floor?

If the answer is no, he may not be actual depth.

He may just be a name on your bench.

Can I Trade Him for Anything Meaningful?

This is where dynasty managers need to be honest.

If no one in your league wants the player, his value might only exist in your head.

That does not mean you should blindly let your league determine every player’s worth. Dynasty managers can be early on players. Sometimes your league is wrong. Sometimes you should hold a player before the value shows up publicly.

But if a player has no production, no market, no clear role, and no rising value, you need a good reason to keep holding.

“Someone might want him someday” is not enough.

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bateman

Roster Cloggers Are Quietly Killing Your Dynasty League – Part 1

Dynasty, Strategy Content / By /

very dynasty manager has that guy.

You won’t start him. You cannot trade him. You don’t really want to cut him. But every time you look at your roster, you convince yourself there is still something there.

Maybe he is young. Maybe he was a good prospect. Maybe he is one injury away from a major role. Maybe he had a few usable weeks two seasons ago (where you probably still regret sitting him). Maybe you remember liking him during rookie draft season and have not fully accepted that the bet is probably dead.

That’s not depth.

That’s what is called a roster clogger.

Roster cloggers are not always bad players. That is what makes them dangerous. The obvious bad players are easy to cut. The real problem is the player who gives you just enough hope to keep holding, but not enough production, trade value, or upside to help your dynasty team.

In dynasty, roster spots are assets. Every bench spot you use on a dead-end player is a bench spot you cannot use on a backup running back with real contingent upside, a young receiver gaining steam, a tight end earning routes, or a waiver player whose value could change quickly.

The question is not, “Can I make a case for this player?”

You can make a case for almost anyone in July.

The better question is this: is this player helping me win, helping me rebuild, or gaining value?

If the answer is no, he might be quietly killing your roster and therefore your season.

What Is a Roster Clogger?

A roster clogger is not simply a bad player. A bad player is easy to drop. A true roster clogger is a threat because he gives you reasons to keep holding.

He might have youth on his side.
He might have draft capital invested in him.
He might have flashed once.
He might be tied to a good offense.
He might be one injury away.
He might be a tight end who “just needs time.”

There is always a story.

That’s the trap.

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Dalton Kincaid: 2026 TE Skeleton Key or Just Another Part-Timer?

Dynasty / By /

The tight end position is a tough one to pin down in fantasy. You either have one of the elite options who helps you stand above your league mates — just ask anyone who has had Travis Kelce for the past decade — or you’re stuck playing roulette with a bunch of middling options. 

Unfortunately, Kelce’s run is over. The top shelf tight ends are now guys like Brock Bowers, who caught 112 passes for 1,194 yards as a rookie in 2024, and Trey McBride, who set an NFL record for tight ends with 126 receptions last year. Those two stand alone at the top, although some are trying to push Colston Loveland up into that tier. I just don’t think he’s there yet. We need to see more from last year’s No. 10 overall pick before we start anointing him. 

A little further down the rankings, though, sits a very intriguing player — one who, at 26 years old, should be entering his prime. I’m talking about Dalton Kincaid. 

Buffalo took Kincaid in the first round in 2023, and as a rookie, he looked the part. He reeled in 73 catches for 673 yards and two scores in Year 1. The future looked insanely bright. Dynasty managers thought they had the next big thing. 

After that promising start, though, things haven’t been quite as rosy. Kincaid has dealt with several injuries, including a troublesome PCL issue that has been lingering since 2024. That has caused Kincaid to miss nine games and limited him in several others over the past two seasons. 

Last year, he had just a 38.3% snap share (TE70) and ran only 189 routes (TE47), which resulted in career lows in both targets (49) and receptions (39). He still managed 571 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring, good for TE13.

So why am I talking about this guy? 

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jcm

One Question For EVERY NFL Team: Washington Commanders Edition

Dynasty / By /

Welcome back to my One Question series, and thank you to everyone for reading my first installment. I’d love to know what you’ve done or plan to do with George Pickens (WR – DAL) this year. This week, we’re staying in the NFC East.

After a disappointing season following their appearance in the 2024 NFC Championship Game, Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS) and the Commanders didn’t live up to the hype due to an injury-riddled season. After firing offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and promoting David Blough, the offense is headed in a new direction — and there is genuine excitement within the organization about the new offensive style.

My question to the Commanders is: Who is the RB1?

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WAS)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt — aka “Bob” — was a Twitter darling last offseason with only Brian Robinson Jr. in his way, playing alongside 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels. What’s not to like? He was primed to take over the Commanders’ backfield and be a league-winner, or so we thought.

Daniels got injured early in the season, tried to fight through it, and ultimately played just seven games. However, even on a bad team with a struggling offense, Croskey-Merritt played all 17 games, totaled almost 900 yards from scrimmage, and scored eight touchdowns — all while playing second fiddle to Brian Robinson Jr. and Chris Rodriguez for most of the season.

Robinson is now with the Atlanta Falcons, and Rodriguez took his talents to Jacksonville. Surely Croskey-Merritt is the favorite to finally make good on his promise as the Commanders’ lead back, right?

One would think. But with Washington adding veteran running backs Rachaad White (RB – WAS) and Jerome Ford (RB – WAS), then drafting sixth-round pick Kaytron Allen (RB – WAS), the question becomes: is Croskey-Merritt the running back on this roster we should trust — or should we take a deeper look at the competition?

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johnston

Top Dynasty Value for Each AFC East & West Team 

Dynasty / By /

*Positional rankings in this article were pulled from Dynasty Football Factory’s Consensus Rankings

AFC East
Buffalo Bills – Dalton Kincaid (TE14)

Dalton Kincaid is a frustrating player to have in fantasy. He’s uber-efficient on a per-route and per-touch basis, yet he gets on the field an exasperatingly low amount due to injuries and a somewhat one-dimensional profile. 

Despite a measly 38.3% snap share (TE70) in 2025, Kincaid finished as the TE13 on average, putting up 10.5 fantasy points per game. He accomplished that with some insane per-touch output, ranking first at the position in yards per route (3.02), first downs per route (0.143), yards per target (11.7), and QB rating per target (149.2). If his knee ever allows him to handle a full workload, Kincaid could break fantasy. Sadly, that may never happen.

Miami Dolphins – Caleb Douglas (WR133)

Expected to be a late-round selection, Caleb Douglas was a shocking pick when Miami selected him in Round 3 of the NFL Draft. Looking at his measurables, though, it’s easy to see why the Dolphins liked him. He’s 6’4”, 206 pounds and ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine — numbers that will turn some heads.

Douglas can burn past defenders, and he uses his height effectively to high-point the football. Those skills helped him rack up 845 yards and seven scores at Texas Tech last season. Given his draft capital, Douglas will have a chance to carve out a role in a receiver room bereft of playmakers. Anytime after Round 20 of startups or Round 3 in rookie drafts is a perfect time to take a swing on him. 

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Top Dynasty Value for Each AFC North & South Team

Dynasty / By /

*Positional rankings in this article were pulled from Dynasty Football Factory’s Consensus Rankings

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens – Zay Flowers (WR22)

At least here at DFF, we have Zay Flowers priced a little more appropriately. For some reason, last season’s WR7 in total fantasy points is currently sitting at WR27 over at KeepTradeCut. Still, I’m more aggressive than nearly everyone in the industry, with him at WR15 in my personal rankings. 

He’s the top target for Lamar Jackson and in his prime as he enters his age-26 season. In addition to the top-notch raw stats, Flowers also posted some elite efficiency metrics in 2025: first in juke rate (22.9%), fourth in explosive plays (21), fifth in yards per route run (2.62), and sixth in target separation (2.15) among all wideouts. As long as I can get him for low-end WR2, high-end WR3 prices, I’m picking Flowers all day long. 

Cincinnati Bengals – Tee Higgins (WR25)

While he’s never going to be the first option in Cincinnati’s passing attack, Tee Higgins is still a highly productive fantasy receiver. Even while missing seven games over the past two seasons, he’s racked up back-to-back campaigns with over 800 yards and double-digit touchdowns. Playing second fiddle to Ja’Marr Chase, Higgins ranked second in the league in receiving scores (11) and 13th in fantasy points per game (14.1) last season. 

Like Flowers, I’m higher on Higgins than most. He’s my WR16 since he’s tied to Joe Burrow in an offense that loves to sling the rock. As long as he stays healthy, Higgins should flirt with WR1 output once more, making him an attractive add at cost for any manager playing for a championship this season. 

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koziol

Late Round Dynasty Rookie Draft Gems

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Eli Heidenreich is an off-the-radar player from Navy who played in one of the most unique offensive systems in college football, notorious for amplifying a singular player’s productivity. 

Heidenreich has some eye-popping analytics. Yards per route run is one of the strongest singular predictors of future fantasy production. On its own, YPRR carries a 0.43 correlation when using current-year data to project next year’s performance. Heidenreich’s 4.73 yards per route run is easily tops in this class, well above the wide receivers who were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. 

His draft capital was poor. But he was drafted. And his Pittsburgh landing spot was pretty solid. Kenneth Gainwell was the RB 20 overall in fantasy points per game last year.  Heidenreich has a shot at a similar role eventually.

Steelers beat writer, Mark Kaboly, posted on X, “ I am not saying that Eli Heidenreich should even be mentioned in the same breath as Christian McCaffrey because C-Mac is elite and a different breed … but you can’t help but notice similarities in how they move around a football field. (yeah, this is going to be taken out of context, oh well).”

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My Top-Owned Dynasty Rookies

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

This weekend, we wrapped up my final dynasty rookie draft of the offseason (outside of my home dynasty league, which drafts during the preseason). With rookies now rostered in 17 of my 18 leagues, I thought it was a good time to discuss my top-owned dynasty rookies. 

Using the “exposure” feature in the Dynasty Control Room, I’m able to see my ownership percentage of every single fantasy player. Being a “portfolio manager” in 18 leagues, this feature is especially useful, showing me who I need to invest more heavily in, as well as the guys I should look to lower my exposure on. The tool also shows you which players DFF expert consensus is above and below market on, to give you an idea of whether you’re investing in the right players. 

With that, let’s take a look at my top 5 most-owned rookies right now. 

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jefferson

Which Wide Receivers Can Average 17+ FPPG in 2026?

Dynasty / By /

The goal of this article is to determine the makeup of an elite fantasy football wide receiver. I am looking for wide receivers who average more than 17+ PPR a game, which is about the top 8 each year.

Since 2010, we have had 32 wide receivers with multiple seasons of 17+ PPR. These quarterbacks have accounted for 111 of 138 seasons since 2010. We have had 27 wide receivers only do it once so far. Some of those guys that are still playing and could join the list of 32 are:

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herbert

Which Quarterbacks Can Average 20+ FPPG in 2026?

Dynasty / By /

The goal of this article is to find what the makeup of an elite fantasy football quarterback is. I am looking for quarterbacks who score 20+ PPR a game, which is about the top 6 each year.

Since 2010, we have had 17 quarterbacks with multiple seasons of 20+ PPR. These quarterbacks make up 71/80 seasons since 2010. We have had 9 quarterbacks only do it once so far. Some of those guys that are still playing and could join the list of 17 are: Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and Baker Mayfield.

Now, the list of 17 quarterbacks who have been elite since 2010.

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rome

Best Dynasty Value for Each NFC North & South Team

Dynasty / By /

*To gauge market value, positional rankings in this article were pulled from FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR)*

NFC North

Chicago Bears – Rome Odunze (WR25)

Everyone seems to have forgotten how electric Rome Odunze was in the Bears’ first four games last season. He had four top-20 finishes and averaged 19.9 fantasy points per game during that span. Sadly, his season was later derailed by a foot sprain, and he never looked like quite the same player after that. 

Hot finishes from Luther Burden and Colston Loveland to end the 2025 season have created a nice buy window for Odunze. Let’s not forget, this is a young player (23) who was a top-10 draft pick just two years ago. With D.J. Moore now in Buffalo, a healthy Odunze has a chance to become Caleb Williams’ top target earner going forward.

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rice

Using Redraft to Improve Your Dynasty Team: Vol. 3

Dynasty, Strategy Content / By /

This is one of my favorite series to write every offseason. If you’re new here, the concept is simple: even though redraft and dynasty are two completely different games, there’s still a ton of value in holding them up side by side. If a player is being drafted heavily in redraft but is dirt cheap in dynasty, that’s the market telling you something. And if a veteran player is propped up in dynasty but the redraft market has moved on, that’s your cue to sell while you still can. 

Underdog ADP is about as sharp as it gets in the fantasy space, since every contest has real money on the line, hundreds of thousands of teams are drafted each year, and the ADP updates constantly. When that many people are putting dollars behind their opinions, you pay attention. So while dynasty managers are thinking three years down the road, we can use that redraft signal to find guys who are undervalued right now and identify the ones you should already be moving while their value is still inflated

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loveland

Building My Dynasty: A Full Startup Draft Breakdown

Dynasty / By /

In today’s article, I’m breaking down my most recent dynasty startup draft, covering everything from my draft strategy to player values and roster construction. The goal is to leave you with a few ideas you can take into your own startup drafts this offseason. In this particular draft, I was able to construct a team I believe can compete in Year 1 while being built for long-term dominance. With the help of the DFF Dynasty Control Room, I was able to maximize value by reviewing consensus big boards and checking “top players available” with every pick. According to DFF consensus, it paid off, as I finished with the best draft class in the league.

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kylepitts

Best and Worst Picks in Dynasty Startup Drafts: Rounds 5-8

Dynasty / By /

I’m bananas for Burden. This is about the area I like to start swinging for upside, and Luther Burden has it in droves. He finished his rookie year on a strong note and ended up with 652 receiving yards and two scores on 47 receptions. But it’s the underlying metrics that get me all hot and bothered: WR2 in target separation (2.62), WR3 in yards per route run (2.79), and WR4 in QB Rating per target (123.1). With D.J. Moore now in Buffalo, Burden is set to take on a larger role in Ben Johnson’s offense going into Year 2. 

Fade: Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)

There’s a lot to like about Quinshon Judkins; I just wish he wasn’t in such a bad situation and coming off serious leg injuries. He broke his fibula and dislocated his ankle in his right leg late in December. That’s a tough thing to come back from, even at 22 years old. He’ll be fine eventually, but even before that, he only averaged 3.6 yards per carry behind a piss poor Cleveland offensive line. His 12.1 fantasy points per game were only good for RB25. Maybe in Round 6 or 7, I can talk myself into it. But in the fifth round, I want a rock-solid back I can feel good about. I don’t get that feeling with Judkins.

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mcmillan

Best and Worst Picks in Dynasty Startup Drafts: Rounds 1-4

Dynasty / By /

Fresh off winning Offensive Player of the Year after a brilliant 2025 campaign, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the perfect cornerstone to build your dynasty team around. He only recently turned 24 years old and has been as durable as they come, never missing a game in his three-year career thus far. With back-to-back seasons of over 100 catches, JSN is the focal point of Seattle’s offense and should continue to be for years to come. He’s an easy click in Round 1 if I have the chance to draft him. 

Fade: Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)

Older than you might think, Joe Burrow will turn 30 before the 2026 season concludes. And while he’s not an immobile statue in the pocket, he really doesn’t add much fantasy production with his legs. For him to pay off first round draft capital, Joe Brrr needs to have extreme outlier seasons in the passing department. He’s capable of it — like in 2024 when he threw for 4,913 yards and 43 scores — but he’s also missed substantial time in three of his six pro seasons and remains an injury risk. 

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2026 Dynasty Rookie RB1 Analytical Model: Rankings 5 to 1

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year.  Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find here, this RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited. 

The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers are trying to accumulate the most fantasy points. NFL teams are trying to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively. 

You can find last year’s 2025 RB1 post-draft published model here. Our model was largely in line with draft capital, with 7 of the first 8 players selected in the NFL draft also in the model’s top 7. A big outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL drafting him 26th among all running backs. 

Now on to the 2026 class. 

This 2026 running back draft class isn’t good. It isn’t bad. No. It is downright atrocious. In these model series, I can typically find 15 “draftable” running backs and wide receivers with ease. Last year, 26 running backs were drafted. This year, even with a terrible overall 2026 class, I don’t have 15 running backs with a “draft-worthy” grade.

You can find the rankings for players 15 to 11 here. 

You can find the rankings for players 10 to 6 here. 

5. Emmett Johnson, Nebraska | RB1 Model Score: 38.0

Based on historical comps, Emmett Johnson’s RB1 Model score of 38.0 gives him a 34.1% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.

Historical Players With Similar RB1 Model Scores:

emmett johnson

The Good

Outside of Jeremiyah Love, Emmett Johnson seems the most likely to secure a role for an NFL team. Why? He is an excellent receiving back. He led all running backs in this class with 30.8 receiving yards per game and 3.8 receptions per game. This earned him 25 points towards his overall RB1 score. 

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tlaw

My First Dynasty Startup of 2026: Draft Review

Dynasty, Strategy Content / By /

Today, I’ll be walking you through my most recent dynasty startup draft that just wrapped up. If you know me or listen to the Always Be Scouting podcast, you know I’m always in a draft somewhere. This was my first dynasty startup of the year, and I wanted to break it down and walk through how I built this roster.

This is a 1QB, 16-team league, and the rookie draft is separate. The scoring setup matters a lot. Tight ends get a boost with 1.5 PPR, and first down points; wide receivers get full PPR, and running backs only get half. Passing touchdowns are also worth 7 points. So going in, I already knew wide receiver was going to be a big focus for me.

Draft Strategy / Team Build

I didn’t go in locked into one plan, but I knew I wanted to build around wide receivers and keep long-term value in mind. At the same time, I didn’t want to punt the season. I wanted a team that could compete now.

Quarterbacks

In a 1QB league, I didn’t feel the need to force the position early. Lawrence ended up being my QB1, and I felt good getting him there. Lawrence had his best year under Liam Coen last year. I feel like he’s finally starting to live up to that #1 overall status from 2021. With passing touchdowns worth 7 points, that’s a solid value. After that, I waited and added depth. Sanders is more of a long-term bet, and Leonard and Pickett are just depth pieces.

Running Backs

I took Jeanty early to lock in a top option. That gave me a foundation at running back. Under new HC Kubiak, Jeanty is poised for a breakout year, especially with the Raiders addressing their QB situation with the Cousins signing, possibly drafting Mendoza with the #1 overall pick, and improving the O-line in the 2026 draft. 

Henderson brings upside, but there’s some risk there. I think in 2026, we’ll see more of him in the backfield after coming off one of the most productive rookie seasons in a Josh McDaniels offense. 

Kyle Monangai had an impressive rookie season and is pushing for more opportunities in 2026. 

Make no mistake, Gainwell has shown he can still produce as part of a one-two punch. Now heading to Tampa Bay, he should continue to fill that passing-down role even with Bucky Irving there. 

After that, I didn’t chase the position too hard. With only .5 PPR for RBs, I was fine adding depth and upside later instead of forcing picks.

Wide Receivers

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dak

Projecting Top Fantasy QBs for 2026

Dynasty / By /

In this article, I’ll be reviewing data from the past four seasons to predict the next top 12 fantasy football quarterbacks. I started by analyzing the top 12 quarterbacks by points per game in each season for the past 4 seasons, identifying a total of 26 players.

Next, I focused on quarterbacks who achieved multiple top 12 seasons — not just one-hit wonders. This narrowed the list to 15 total quarterbacks.

Josh Allen Patrick Mahomes Brock Purdy Jalen Hurts
Lamar Jackson Dak Prescott Trevor Lawrence Bo Nix
Daniel Jones Joe Burrow Baker Mayfield Jared Goff
Kyler Murray Jordan Love Tua Tagovailoa

These are the 15 guys I will be looking at closely in this article. 

    • 15/15 averaged more than 23 PPR in their best college season
    • 15/15 threw for more than 5000 yards in their college career
    • 15/15 threw for more than 40 touchdowns in their college career
    • 14/15 passed for more than 175 yards a game (Hurts)
    • 14/15 rushed for more than 10 yards a game (Goff)

  • 14/15 averaged more than 20 PPR a game in their college career (Love)
  • 14/15 had more than 2 touchdowns to interceptions ratio (Jones)
  • 14/15 had more than 300 rushing yards in college (Goff)

    • Description.

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fannin

Reviewing My Top Dynasty Exposures

Dynasty / By /

If you’re a portfolio dynasty player (I’d put the threshold at around eight or more leagues), it’s worth periodically checking your overall dynasty exposures to make sure your ownership percentages actually reflect your player takes. Tracking player exposure helps you identify where you’re underweight and looking to add, and who you might want to sell to avoid being over-leveraged. I use Dynasty Data Lab for this, and the dynasty offseason is the perfect window to review your exposures.  In today’s article, I’ll break down my top 10 most-owned players and share my thoughts on each from a dynasty perspective. To keep this article focused solely on impact players, I’ll just be looking at the first 12 rounds of startup ADP. 1. Harold Fannin (TE – CLE) – 41.2% ownership Fannin was a major third-round target for me in last year’s dynasty rookie drafts, coming off the most productive tight end season in college football history. He was overlooked due to his athletic limitations and the poor competition he faced at Bowling Green (both legitimate concerns), but the discount was simply too large, considering his production profile. I’m thrilled to have so many shares of what I believe is a clear Top 5 dynasty TE, and I acquired most of these shares for a fraction of his current price.  2. Colston Loveland (TE – CHI) – 35.3% ownership Another 2025 rookie prospect who was a major target of mine in the latter part of the first round. I loved everything about Loveland’s college profile; he was elite from a per-route perspective,

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