Mid-season 2022 Rookie Wide Receiver Values Check in

The NFL season has almost reached its midway point. Things are getting tough in the fantasy football streets. Injuries are destroying the hopes and dreams of many fantasy managers. While the weekly grind can sometimes seem overwhelming, it’s important in dynasty to take some time for reflection. Now that we have a decent sample size of NFL play from the 2022 rookie class, we can start to make more accurate valuations on certain players. In this article, the goal is to help you in your reflection process on the rookie wide receiver class. I take my dynasty rankings very seriously. I make small adjustments and update them weekly as injuries happen and we learn more about various players. 

While dynasty is a “long play,” my style is to play in much shorter windows than the average dynasty manager. I value certainty and production more than most. My basic reasoning is I believe we know less about what is going to happen in the future than we think we do. Just take a look at any startup you participated in a couple of years ago. I want to note my personal style before sharing where I have the rookie wide receivers ranked, because valuation varies for what you as a dynasty manager find most important. This is a tweet from my final pre-NFL draft wide receiver rankings.

I also want to be transparent about my priors so that you are aware of where my bias might be. I hope my rankings are used as a tool to help to make your own decisions on where you value the rookie wide receivers. Although it can be time-consuming, especially initially, I strongly suggest all dynasty managers create their own positional and overall rankings with tiers. It helps in so many aspects of dynasty. We all know Keep Trade Cut is far from perfect. Still, I include their rankings for cross-comparison against my own to provide additional context on the rough valuation of the dynasty community.

The Future Stars

Player                                                          My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

London started out the season on fire averaging 17.1 points through his first three games. Since then London has hit a bit of a skid. He suffered an ankle injury in Week 5 that could be contributing to his decline in performance. London only played 67% of snaps in Weeks 5 and 6, but he was back up to 85% of snaps last week. Even with his recent dip in fantasy performances, I think it is safe to say that Drake London has displayed alpha wide receiver signals. He has an impressive 31% target share on the season which ranks fifth in the entire NFL. The only red flag for London right now is his team situation, or more specifically, his coaching situation. Arthur Smith has shown to be committed to establishing the crap out of the run, even in massively negative game scripts. Not what we fantasy managers like to see. Smith has had relative success NFL-wise using this formula for his Atlanta team so it seems unlikely that there will be a coaching change any time soon and this is to the detriment of London’s fantasy outlook. 

Player                                                    My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

Olave has been nothing short of outstanding in both real life and fantasy during his rookie season. Olave’s smooth routes have led him to the overall WR15 through half the season and he is leading the league with 922 air yards. The polish of Olave’s routes that scouts raved about in the pre-draft process has come to fruition and is already paying dividends for the Saints. Olave has benefited from injuries to veteran teammates Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. However, he has shown he will be a future star at the position even when Thomas and Landry return. Lock Olave in for becoming a WR1 in dynasty.

Player                                                          My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

Garrett Wilson had a breakout performance in week two, where he flashed his elite talent with 8 receptions, 102 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. The Jets have had a surprisingly impressive start to the season with a 5-2 record, but the time Wilson had a lot of success was with Joe Flacco. The concern for Wilson’s outlook is the way the Jets have been playing since they started winning. Their formula of strong defensive play and controlling the game on the ground isn’t a style conducive to amazing wide receiver production. While the Jets are unlikely to always be in as perfect running game scripts, I do have a fair amount of concern about whether Zach Wilson can support a fantasy WR1. Zach Wilson’s progression is something to monitor because the fear is that Garrett Wilson could become the next DJ Moore or Terry McLaurin, a talented wide receiver but one who never has a good quarterback.

Player                                                          My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

George Pickens had somewhat of an incomplete college resume hindered by injuries but has erased those pre-draft fears. Pickens has the physical profile of an alpha receiver and the rangy 6’3” rookie has shown a nose for the spectacular. Similar to the past best receivers in the league, Pickens has unique control of his body when making difficult receptions. His production has increased lately, averaging 68.2 receiving yards over the past four weeks. Compared to Olave and London, Pickens has a bit more receiving competition between teammates Chase Claypool, Pat Friermuth, and Diontae Johnson. The Steelers are a great organization with a proven track record of producing top-quality receivers. While the present teammate competition on the surface may seem cloudy, I’m confident that Pickens’ talent will shine through. Expect him to be a WR2 with WR1 upside.

The Unknowns

Player                                                          My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

Treylon Burks’ short time in the NFL has been nothing short of a rollercoaster of emotion for dynasty managers. Burks has all the physical tools that we see in top-end receivers but lacks refinement. Burks was seeing his role increase across the first four weeks until he suffered an unfortunate toe injury. A concern for Burks is the culture of Tennessee, similar to Atlanta’s, in that it is a run-first team that seems unlikely to change. Admittedly, I was lower on Burks by the end of the pre-draft process than many, but I have been impressed with what I’ve seen from him when healthy. He is more raw than the four future stars previously mentioned, but I think he does have the potential to ascend to star status if he takes big strides. I’d value Burks as a borderline future WR2 with a high ceiling but also a low floor.

Player                                                          My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

Jameson Williams has the potential to be a future star but we haven’t seen him yet this year because of his late-season ACL injury last year. I’d expect Williams to come back just as explosive as he was in college, but the question I have is how will the hierarchy shake out between him and Amon Ra St. Brown? They should complement each other with their differing styles. Williams profiles as a boom-bust wide receiver which is why I want to see his role in the Detroit offense before I’d consider including him in the future stars tier.

Player                                                          My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

Jahan Dotson had a great start to his campaign, surprising everyone after coming out of the gate in week one with two touchdowns. His role was fantastic through his first three healthy weeks, playing between 87-99% of the Commander’s snaps. Dotson suffered a hamstring injury in week four which has kept him out since then. He appeared to be on his way to returning to action last week but unfortunately re-aggravated the injury at practice so it might be a few more weeks until we see him again. Dotson reminds me of Chris Olave lite. A polished receiver, but with less explosiveness and straight-line speed than Olave. I expect Dotson to be a solid WR2/3 for his career with WR1 upside if paired with a great quarterback. In the correct situation, I believe Dotson can soak up target volume.

Player                                                                  My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

Christian Watson was very close to finding himself in the next tier of players, but I’m giving him the injury benefit of the doubt before casting full judgment. Watson missed almost the entirety of preseason, which as a rookie in an Aaron Rodgers offense is difficult to overcome. In three of the four games Watson played in, he’s seen only 25-33% of snaps. Watson was a raw prospect coming from an FCS school who I expected to take time to integrate into the NFL. The 6’4” Watson posted gaudy numbers at the combine running a 4.36 40-time with a 38.5-inch vertical jump. The Packers are desperate for production at the receiver position. Hopefully, when Watson returns from his latest injury he will feel more comfortable in the offense and show why the Packers spent a high-end 2nd round draft pick on him.

The Disappointments/Potential Busts

Player                                                          My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

By far the most disappointing player of the season from my personal expectations has been Skyy Moore. His role on Kansas City has gone from none to minimal as he has played 20-30% snaps in four weeks. Moore isn’t doing himself any favors after he muffed a punt this past week for the second time this season. While Skyy hasn’t produced anything for fantasy I do think he has looked like the explosive prospect I thought he was on the few times he has touched the ball. However, the recent blockbuster trade for Kadarius Toney could be a sign that the Chiefs organization doesn’t have the strongest belief in Skyy Moore. He has dropped significantly in my rankings since the beginning of the season and I don’t expect him to return any usable fantasy production for the current season. We will see about the future.

Player                                                          My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

Jalen Tolbert looked bad in the preseason and has been a healthy inactive for four weeks this season. Shocking considering the lack of receiving weapons the Dallas Cowboys have, especially before Michael Gallup returned. Looks safe to say label Tolbert a bust in both dynasty and redraft where he was drafted in the middle rounds for the entire offseason. 

Player                                                My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

Bell’s lack of involvement in the Browns offense has been disappointing, considering the lack of wide receiver competition. With that said Bell has been better than Tolbert! He has caught a pass in all but one game and has seen his snap share begin to rise over the last two weeks to 63% and 57%. I would not label David Bell as a bust, but he has been disappointing and he needs to take more advantage of his opportunities during the remainder of the season.

Player                                                          My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

Doubs greatly impressed in preseason and is different from the other names on this list because he has actually had some fantasy production this season. For a fourth-round draft pick, you could argue he has outperformed draft expectations. But after his exciting start, he has had poor performances for three consecutive weeks now with bad drops. The Packers are on a terrible run of form and Aaron Rodgers is not happy. He has called for opportunities to be slashed for certain players and be given to others. I have an inkling that Doubs could be one of the players he is referring to. Once Rodgers’ trust is lost it is hard to regain, making Doubs’ future outlook murky because the Packers are sure to bring in competition either before the trade deadline or next off-season. Doubs needs to re-establish himself before the end of the season or he will likely be replaced.

The Flashing Potentials

Player                                                                          My Rank               KTC                            Draft Pick                                                 PPG

Wan’Dale has only played a couple of NFL games, but he has flashed his short-area quickness and ability to earn targets, drawing eight in his second game. With the shocking news of Kadarius Toney being traded to the Chiefs, the runway for Robinson is fully clear. To me, Wan’Dale is almost more of a redraft target than a dynasty one. His rest-of-season outlook is fantastic, but you’d have to imagine the Giants will address their wide receiver room next off-season because it is shambles apart from Wan’Dale. Robinson could be a WR2 for the remainder of the season, but I can’t imagine moving him higher than a WR3 in my dynasty ranks. My suggestion if you have Wan’Dale is to ride out his points ROS, let his value rise, then sell in the off-season for a nice chunk of profit.

Player                                                 My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

You have to be impressed with what Alec Pierce has put on wax so far this season for a struggling Colts team. Similar to Christian Watson, Pierce blew the doors off the combine, running a 4.41 40 time with a 40-inch vertical, but unlike Watson, Pierce has impressed on the field as well. He’s had two games over 80 receiving yards and his snap share increased to 97% last game. Clearly, a big factor for Pierce the rest of the season is the change at quarterback from Matt Ryan to Sam Ehlinger. It’s hard to see the Colts throwing at the same volume as they did with Ryan who is second in the NFL in pass attempts with 297. Pierce is the inverse of the previously mentioned Wan’Dale Robinson, I wouldn’t expect nearly as good as fantasy production for the rest of the season but Pierce is an intriguing future asset.

Player                                                          My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

Khalil Shakir looked good in his big chance with Isaiah Mckenzie sidelined in Week 5. Shakir put up 16.5 fantasy points. Shakir was a player I was high on in the pre-draft process so there may be a bit of bias seeping in, but I like Shakir’s talent and think he can carve himself a role in  Buffalo’s potent offense by the end of the year. The battle for the slot role between McKenzie and Shakir will be one to keep an eye on.

Player                                                          My Rank                      KTC                            Draft Pick                                                     PPG

Thornton was a surprising pick for many (including me) in the 2nd round. There were doubts that he was a one-trick pony, drafted only to stretch the field. However, Thornton has more variety in his game than previously thought. He received nothing but positive reports in training camp/preseason and has already delivered in a game. He is another guy you should keep an eye on to see how he progresses for the rest of the season because if he is actually a good receiver, with his deadly speed, he can be a fantasy producer.

Current Rankings & Valuation Table

Thanks for making it through the mid-season 2022 rookie wide receivers check-in! I hope I was able to give you a good quick description of all the relevant rookie wide receivers, their future outlook, and their current value. Shoot me a follow on Twitter if you liked the review @StormyLab12, I love connecting with different members of the fantasy community!