With superflex leagues taking the fantasy world by storm the last couple years, quarterbacks have gone from a streaming position to vital assets just like the real franchises we imitate. Gone are the days of establishing your positional player lineups before grabbing your QB1, or waiting till the second round of rookie drafts to secure quarterback depth. The first round of 12-team startups will see four to eight QBs come off the board. Rookie drafts will see both Burrow and Tua gone by pick four at the latest. It’s for this reason you have to make QB a priority and target the right players. Use what we have seen from QBs in their rookie seasons to your advantage. In this article, I hope to shed light on the quarterbacks I expect to have a sophomore breakout.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
For all intents and purposes, Kyler has already broken out, finishing as QB7 in 2019 as a rookie. Playing for a first-year head coach, Kyler was efficient right from the start. Kyler ranked third in money throws, which playerprofiler.com defines as “A completed pass requiring exceptional skill or athleticism as well as critical completions in clutch moments during the game.” Kyler with 26 only trailed Aaron Rodgers with 34 and Russell Wilson with 33. The Cardinals red zone woes really held Murray back in his rookie year, ranking 29th at 45%, leading to a poor 3.7% TD rate. I expect this number to nearly double to 6%+ in his sophomore year. Add on his 34 rushing yards per game to add three points to his floor, and we have all the makings of a true superstar at QB. If you are looking to acquire Kyler, expect to pay up heavily. In my opinion, you will need to bring a serviceable QB along with a solid positional player AND a first-round pick to get Murray from an owner that’s low on him. Seeing as there aren’t many owners out there who are low on Kyler, it will probably take more. If you own Kyler, don’t sell him for any less than the prior deal with another first involved. Hold on and enjoy the ride.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jones seems to be a very polarizing player in the fantasy world. Daniel Jones’s current ADP has him going as the QB14. I love this cost for a rookie that balled out just like Kyler. In his first 10 starts, Weeks three through 13, Daniel was THE QB10. He then missed Weeks 14 and 15, which are unfortunately the first two weeks of your fantasy playoffs. However, when he returned in Week 16 for fantasy championship week, he was THE QB1. Jones did this behind a mediocre O-line, ranked 17th by both PFF and Football Outsiders. He also was missing Saquon for three weeks, and he didn’t seem to be fully back for much longer. Other injuries included Evan Engram for six weeks and Sterling Shepard for five games. What might make some hesitant of Jone’s is his erratic play. He was the most volatile QB last year with a weekly volatility score of 11.1. Jones was also second behind only Jameis in danger plays with 51. While this is scaring other owners off, I am not as worried. I want a QB on a mediocre team with high draft capital, turning the ball over so he will be forced to throw more in garbage time. It also helps that Jones averaged 21 rushing yards a game to pad his floor by two points. Winston was THE QB3 last year, and this is fantasy, not the NFL. While Jameis is without a starting job now, you can expect Jones to be the starter for the tenure of his rookie contract. If you are looking to acquire Daniel, I’d suggest a mid-2020 first. I got this exact deal done a few weeks ago; the player ended up being Swift. If you own Jones, don’t sell for less than an early 2020 first + a solid positional player of need. Bring some of these stats to the table and squeeze out another pick if you are a bit wary of Jones.
Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars
I am all aboard the Minshew train at his current ADP hanging around QB28. In his rookie campaign, Gardner was a very consistent QB hanging top 12 finishes week in week out. After Nick Foles went down, from Week two through nine Minshew was the QB11. After he took the job back for the fantasy playoffs, Minshew was QB 21 in Week 14, QB12 in Week 15, and QB17 for the fantasy championship Week 16. Solid QB2 performances from a rookie. Gardner didn’t have any blow-up games like Jones did, but he was one of the most consistent QBs in 2019 with a weekly volatility score of 5.6. Like the two aforementioned rookies, Minshew racked up 24 yards a game on the ground to help pad his floor. Also, Jacksonville has done nothing thus far in the offseason to bring in any real competition for Minshew, basically solidifying his role for the 2020 season. My favorite thing about Minshew however is the cost; you can get him for peanuts. Package a player at a position you’re strong at along with a second and you should have yourself a deal. If selling, part ways for a first along with a high upside flier.
Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
With Drew Lock, we get to my first hard sell on this list. It’s not so much an indictment on Drew as it is his hype and ADP which is around QB18. Lock missed the first eight games with a thumb injury, not taking the starting job until Week 13. He finished 4-1 as a starter, but he was only QB 22 in that span. Most people remember the Texans game where Lock went 22-27 (81.4%) 309 yards with three TDs and one INT. I’ve gone back and watched this film a couple of times, and it’s not as flattering for Lock as it is a bad look for the Texans. Most of the receivers are well open with Lock struggling to find the windows getting lucky breaks. Locks QB finishes were as follows:
Week 13 vs LAC – QB21
Week 14 @ HOU – QB7
Week 15 @ KC – QB 31
Week 16 vs DET – QB 21.
While Denver did bring in a ton of weapons that should help Lock, I just feel he is a great sell candidate when you factor in his small sample size and overwhelming hype. You can likely score a solid positional player + a first for Lock. Or if competing, go for Stafford straight up or add a first to Lock for a Wentz/Ryan/Wilson type possibly. If selling, look for at least a first packaged with a solid positional player or vet QB like Carr/Roethlisberger.
Dwayne Haskins, Washington Redskins
Haskins is another intriguing player with an extremely low ADP of QB 30. The 2019 Redskins were a disaster, both in real life and in fantasy which you can to your advantage. Washington made a lot of great foundational changes, bringing in Ron Rivera as head coach, as well as Jack Del Rio as the DC. Rivera also brought along with him from Carolina his DLine coach Sam Mills, who has gotten more sacks out of his DLine since 2012 than any other team. On offense, they brought in Antonio Gibson and Antonio Gandy-Golden along with two linemen via the draft. They also will be getting Derrius Guice back into a crowded backfield. As for what we saw out of Haskins his rookie year, I’ll chalk it up to a bad coach who never wanted to draft Haskins in the first place. Gruden didn’t place Haskins in situations to succeed as he did with Dalton back in 2011. I think Haskins is worth the risk at his current ADP and transaction cost, which is likely as high as a second-round pick to the right owner. If you are an owner trying to move him, I would recommend holding. I don’t think there is any way for his stock to drop, as you are probably looking at a positional player flier or third round pick.
Thanks for reading. Find me on twitter @Dushanes_ to discuss your fantasy questions and any feedback you have!
